JTís DAILY (WEEKLY as of 12/9/2013) BLOG for Month Of January 2023

Note: All previous month's posts are available in the archives, as noted above. 

All postings for the month are available here, sorted in descending order - i.e. most recent at the top.

1st Posting for Week of January 3, 2023 Beginning Tuesday 01/03/2023

Posted Saturday 12/31/2022 at 1:00 PM

As has been my practice, I will suspend my weekly postings effective immediately, until after tax season, as I resume by annual seasonal job as a tax preparer. In lieu of my usual practice of offering market commentary and updates on the stocks I follow, I have updated my stock lists, and my rationales for the changes.

Tier1

AQN, MMM, MPW, and VZ were all moved to Tier2, as all had significant declines over the past year, more than a quality stock on Tier1 should have. I own all of these except MMM, and they are all still paying reasonable dividends. I have considered buying MMM, but the outlook is uncertain for the firm, as it grapples with a flood of product lawsuits. The unpredictability of how these play out has caused me to hold off, even as the stock price has declined in a major way. 

Tier2

In addition to the above stocks being added, RIO has been moved from Tier2 to Tier3, as I do not see it as stable enough to be on Tier2.

Tier3

Additions besides RIO include four "promotions" from Tier4 to Tier3, reflecting that some stocks formerly on Tier3 that had been "demoted" are recovering enough to get back to Tier3. These are MFA, NEM, PAA, and PK. Further, I have added some new stocks to Tier3 that had not been followed before. These are FDUS, GMRE, DX, and RC. Finally, two stocks that have reduced or eliminated their dividend, LUMN and BGS, have been "demoted" from Tier3 to Tier4, no longer recommended.

Tier4

This list now only has six stocks, LUMN and BGS, plus four precious metals miners that were all along, just a speculation. They are all decent firms, but with low yields and not much chance of a big share price jump, they remain on Tier4. NEM was in this group, but with the upgrading of the dividend to a respectable yield, NEM is now on Tier3.

The New Year has many predictions floating around, many of which forecast a major market decline is in store. My plan is to take advantage of price declines, if they occur, by adding to existing positions if I can reduce my cost basis per share, or starting new positions of dividend payers that had been too expensive. If we have a roaring bull market, I might be tempted to sell out of some positions. My "rule" is, if I can realize a capital gain equivalent to four years' worth of dividends, assuming the current payout continues, I am tempted to sell. Anything less, unless my view of the firm has markedly changed, I will resist the sell urge.  

 

JT