JT’s DAILY (WEEKLY as of 12/9/2013) BLOG for Month Of September 2022

Note: All previous month's posts are available in the archives, as noted above. 

All postings for the month are available here, sorted in descending order - i.e. most recent at the top.

1st Posting for Week of September 19, 2022 Beginning Monday 09/19/2022

Posted Sunday 09/18/2022 6:00 PM

Stocks resumed their decline last week after Monday, declining in a major way on Tuesday, then after a tepid rebound on Wednesday, sealed the deal by declining markedly on Thursday and Friday. The S&P 500 index closed Friday below the 3900 mark, which the chartists had defined as a significant support level, and was back in the range of a near-20% decline from the January highs, and not far from the lows reached in mid-June this year.

The stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through September 27 are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 9/19/2022, 6.50%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 9/19/2022, 10.90%. SLRC also pays monthly.

Midcap Financial Investment (MFIC), 9/19/2022, 10.18%. MFIC was formerly AINV.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 9/21/2022, 6.41%. GAIN pays monthly.

Vici Properties (VICI), 9/21/2022, 4.67%.

 

Three of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week. Assume monthly pay frequency, unless quarterly frequency is indicated.

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 9/19/2022, 9.38%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 9/19/2022, 6.87%.

Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 9/22/2022, 5.98%.

 

One of my stocks will be reporting next week, General Mills (GIS), on 9/21/2022.

Ratings changes on my stocks over the past two weeks are listed following, as per Etrade, my source.

Enbridge (ENB) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Barrick Gold (Gold) was initiated at Neutral at Goldman.

Newmont (NEM) was initiated at Buy at Goldman.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) was initiated at Buy at Goldman.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB) was reiterated at Neutral at Bank of America.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) was initiated at Neutral at B. Riley.

Trinity Capital (TRIN) was initiated at Buy at B. Riley.

As noted in the introduction, the market has turned south over the past week. The trigger was a huge drop on Tuesday, when the Dow Industrials gave back 1276 points, and the S&P 500 declined 177 points. After a down day like that, investors and traders will approach the markets with more caution than before, their confidence shaken. With the Fed members declaring daily that rate increases will keep on coming until inflation is contained, and the uptick in inflation from the CPI numbers released before the open on Tuesday, the day of the big decline, the outlook for further declines has become more likely. I’ll be patiently waiting on the declines from the January highs to hit 30% on the S&P 500, at which time I’ll buy some stocks.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of September 12, 2022 Beginning Monday 09/12/2022

Posted Sunday 09/11/2022 12:30 PM

It appeared the summer rally we had seen since the June lows was indeed a bear market rally, as the market headed lower starting around August 17, punctuated on August 26 by the largest one-day drop since the financial crisis of 2008, whereby the Dow Industrials declined over 1000 points, and the S&P 500 declined 141 points. Further declines continued on up through Tuesday of last week. But then, starting last Wednesday, we had three positive market days in a row, totaling 1006 points on the Dow Industrials, and 158 points on the S&P 500 Index. Confused yet? You are not alone. The Fed members have been speaking “Fed-speak” consistently of late in that further Fed tightening was coming, and would continue coming, until inflation subsides. Fed comments that usually would cause a decline instead caused the major uptick the last three market days after Tuesday, as noted above.

Thank goodness for dividends, without which sanity in this market would be impossible. The stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through September 19 are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Monroe Capital (MRCC), 9/14/2022, 11.74%.

Iron Mountain (IRM), 9/14/2022, 4.69%.

Altria (MO), 9/14/2022, 8.25%.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW), 9/14/2022, 7.90%.

Ares Capital (ARCC), 9/14/2022, 8.61%.

Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), 9/14/2022, 9.81%.

Coca Cola (KO), 9/15/2022, 2.82%.

PennantPark Investment (PNNT), 9/16/2022, 9.33%.

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), 9/16/2022, 9.23%. PFLT pays monthly.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 9/16/2022, 9.72%. HRZN also pays monthly.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 9/19/2022, 6.34%. MAIN is another monthly payer.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 9/19/2022, 10.71%. SLRC pays monthly.

Midcap Financial Investment (MFIC), 9/19/2022, 9.84%. MFIC was formerly AINV.

Eleven of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, and two others will likely be going ex-dividend as well, but have not announced the ex-dividend date yet. Assume monthly pay frequency, unless quarterly frequency is indicated.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 9/13/2022, 6.55%.

Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty Fund (RFI), 9/13/2022, 6.87%.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 9/14/2022, 7.65%. 

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 9/14/2022, 6.88%.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 9/14/2022, 8.85%.

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 9/14/2022, 4.54%. 

Nuveen Dow 30SM Dynamic Overwrite Fund (DIAX), 9/14/2022, 7.21%. DIAX pays quarterly.

Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX), 9/14/2022, 8.56%. QQQX pays quarterly.

Dividend and Income Fund (DNIF), 9/15/2022, 11.22%. DNIF pays quarterly.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 9/15/2022, 6.16%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 9/15/2022, 6.16%.

The following two CEFs will likely be going ex-dividend also at the end of my look-ahead period. The prior month’s ex-dividend date is indicated, and the current yield is shown.

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 8/18/2022, 9.17%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 8/19/2022, 6.77%.

None of my stocks will be reporting next week.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) recently announced major news, that a 1-for-4 reverse stock split will occur after the close on 9/23/2022. While a reverse split is usually not good news for shareholders, the announcement also stated the pre-split dividend rate of 22 cents would be maintained, with a post-split dividend of 88 cents per share, with ex-dividend date of 9/29/2022. I’m not enamored of the split news, but I plan to hold on and see what develops, no reason to sell in a panic.    

Ratings changes on my stocks over the past two weeks are listed following, as per Etrade, my source.

Newmont (NEM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS. NEM is on my Tier4 list, as I decided a speculation on precious metals stocks was no longer attractive. But the price decline from the mid-80’s to the low 40’s has boosted the yield to over 5%. I don’t expect the decline to go much lower, and the dividend seems secure, so I started a new position recently, in the low 40’s. NEM will be going to my Tier3 on my next re-work.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman.

Williams Cos (WMB) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at Goldman.

Intel (INTC) was initiated at Hold at Stifel. INTC has seen a drastic price decline over the past two years, from the mid-60s to barely above 31 at Friday’s close. If the dividend is safe, now yielding 4.64%, it would be a no-brainer buy right now. When a company is capital-starved, however, the dividend cannot be considered safe. INTC is not going away, but the dividend cannot be considered safe at this point. INTC will be going from my Tier2 to my Tier3 on my next re-work.

McDonalds (MCD) was initiated at Market Perform at Bernstein. Barely yielding 2%, MCD likely will be dropped on my next rework, it no longer qualifies as a dividend stock.

3M Co (MMM) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at UBS. MMM briefly went below 120 recently, and I was tempted, the current yield is nearly 5%. But there is a reason why MMM has declined from 250 at the start of 2018 to barely 120 today. The reason is huge legal product liability from acquired companies. MMM, like GE, was once a “widows and orphans” stock. In today’s legal tangles, a firm facing massive legal troubles is a total crap-shoot. MMM will be going to my Tier4 on my next rework, joining GE.

As I have been saying for weeks now, the near-term future for stocks is more uncertain than usual. I am taking advantage of attractive prices to start or add to positions occasionally, but mostly I’m conserving capital, and waiting for a major decline to commit seriously. If it comes, I’ll be glad I waited. If not, with interest rates slated to rise from effectively zero in recent years to possibly respectable levels, I will park capital in safer investments than stocks, an option not available for many years until just recently.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of September 6. 2022 Beginning Tuesday 09/06/2022

Posted Sunday 09/04/2022 10:00 AM

The bear has apparently returned since my last post two weeks ago. One telling observation has been several days with the pre-market futures positive, and the day ending up with losses on the major averages. This indicates investors are seeing a faint uptick as an opportunity to unload, ahead of further expected declines.

The stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through September 6 are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Newmont (NEM), 9/7/2022, 5.28%.

Kimco Realty (KIM), 9/8/2022, 4.13%.

Williams Cos (WMB), 9/8/2022, 5.00%

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), 9/8/2022, 3.33%.

Kimberly Clark (KMB), 9/8/2022, 3.61%.

That’s it, kind of a slow week for dividends for my stocks. Further, none of the 17 CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend next week.

None of my stocks will be reporting next week.

Ratings changes on my stocks over the past two weeks are listed following, as per Etrade, my source.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was downgraded from OutPerform to InLine at Evercore ISI.

Getty Realty (GTY) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Bank of America.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Macquarie.

Vici Properties (VICI) was initiated at Market OutPerform at JMP Securities.

Getty Realty (GTY) was initiated at Neutral at Redburn.

Park Hotels (PK) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Wells Fargo.

Greif (GEF) was initiated at Buy at Stifel.

Not a lot of ratings changes for two weeks, reflective of the uncertain market direction, as we head into the fall. 

As per my opening remarks, the bear has returned over the past two weeks. The S&P 500 Index closed Friday down 18.5% from its post-Covid high. If it goes down much more, it will have declined 20% from the high. I “nibbled” a bit, as a few long-standing buy orders suddenly executed during the selloff, but mostly I have conserved cash, with my cumulative level across all brokerages in excess of 50%. I’m back to a holding pattern, awaiting the signal of an S&P 500 Index decline of 30%, before committing major additional capital. As they say, “get your popcorn ready”, the show should be interesting for the next few months.   

JT

 

 

1st Posting for Week of August 22. 2022 Beginning Monday 08/22/2022

Posted Sunday 08/21/2022 10:00 AM

The up then down then back up and so on action continued last week, with the downs ending the week slightly ahead. The major question now has become “is this a bear market rally, or are the lows seen early in the summer going to be the worst of it, with a slow but steady recovery continuing into the fall”. Most pundits are predicting the bear will return, but at least a couple are saying no, the decline is over, and we are on our way to new highs.

Like any stock junkie, I enjoy seeing “green on the screen”. However, since I’m still overweight cash, I had planned on being able to deploy it at more favorable prices than I’m seeing just now, so in a way this unexpected rally has thwarted my plans.

Oh, well, I can always take solace from the dividends from my current holdings flowing into my accounts. The stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through September 2nd are listed following. Yes, I am listing the next two weeks upcoming in this post, as I will be away next weekend. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/22/2022, 5.76%. GAIN pays monthly.

Welltower (WELL), 8/22/2022, 3.05%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/22/2022, 2.71%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/22/2022, 4.55%.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), 8/25/2022, 1.88%.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 8/26/2022, 8.91%. PSEC pays monthly.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN), 8/29/2022, 9.06%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 8/30/2022, 11.36%. AGNC is another monthly payer.

Stag Industrial (STAG), 8/30/2022, 4.28%. STAG also pays monthly. I recently started a new position on August 11, STAG is down to just under $34, from over $48 last December.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), 8/30/2022, 2.44%.

Kellogg (K), 8/31/2022, 3.11%.

Realty Income (O), 8/31/2022, 4.07%. O is well-known as a monthly payer.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 8/31/2022, 3.80%.

McDonalds (MCD), 8/31/2022, 2.07%

Pepsico (PEP), 9/1/2022, 2.55%. MCD and PEP are two “over-loved” companies likely to be dropped on my next rework of my lists, neither pays enough to be worth being considered a “dividend stock”.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 9/1/2022, 6.13%. MAIN pays monthly. I recently bought this stalwart dividend payer back last June, at an average cost around $37. It closed Friday at $42.49. This time, I won’t sell no matter how high it goes. I have suffered from “seller’s remorse” ever since selling it in December 2020, after buying at the Covid lows. Yes, I pocketed a nice gain, but quickly realized it was a mistake to sell.

Golub Capital (GBDC), 9/1/2022, 8.55%.

Two of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, and two others will likely be going ex-dividend in early September. All are monthly payers.

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY), 8/23/2022, 8.43%.

Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 8/23/2022, 5.44%.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), estimated ex-dividend date 9/1/2022, yield 7.57%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF), estimated ex-dividend date 9/5/2022, yield 7.47%.

Only one of my stocks will be reporting in the next two weeks, JM Smucker Co (SJM), on 8/23/2022.

Not much in the way of ratings changes came out last week on my stocks, at least per Etrade, my source.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at BMO Capital.

JM Smucker Co (SJM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank of America.

3M Co (MMM) was resumed at Market Perform at Bernstein.

General Electric (GE) is no longer on my Tier4 list, nor on any other list, but I follow it mentally anyway. It was resumed at OutPerform at Bernstein. GE is an example of why there is now no such thing as a “widows and orphans” stock, if there ever was such a safe stock.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Market Perform to UnderPerform at Moffett Nathanson.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was reiterated at Buy at Jeffries, at Neutral at UBS, Piper Sandler, and Goldman, at OutPerform at Credit Suisse, Raymond James, and Evercore ISI, at Sell at Citigroup, and at Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

As noted in my opening remarks, this will be my last posting until September. Since that is only two weeks away, I doubt if the market outlook will be much clearer by then. My advice is to be on the lookout for bargains, avoid over-paying, and keep your powder dry, the future will unfold at its own pace.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of August 15, 2022 Beginning Monday 08/15/2022

Posted Sunday 08/14/2022 12:00 PM

Unlike the prior week, which saw only a minimal net change, last week saw significant advances by the major averages, and confirmed that the unexpected summer rally is for real. The latest inflation numbers showed at least a temporary respite, especially for energy costs. It remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary blip or the start of a general retreat in prices, but the “doom & gloom” crowd has definitely been handed a loss, considering their dire predictions earlier in the summer.

Meanwhile, the stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), 8/17/2022, 9.26%. PFLT pays monthly.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 8/17/2022, 10.66%. SLRC also pays monthly.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 8/17/2022, 8.76%. HRZN is another monthly payer.

Chevron (CVX), 8/18/2022, 3.55%. The sub-4% yield reflects the current extended share price CVX shareholders are enjoying these days.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 8/19/2022, 2.47%. The almost respectable yield in this case reflects the near 50% drop in the share price endured by PAAS shareholders since mid-2020. PAAS is a speculation on precious metals coming back into vogue, not a dividend play. One famous quote regarding silver prices seems appropriate, “silver is on the edge of a major advance, and always will be”. That is why PAAS is on my Tier4 list.

3M Co (MMM), 8/19/2022, 3.98%.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/22/2022, 5.89%. GAIN pays monthly.

Welltower (WELL), 8/22/2022, 3.00%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/22/2022, 2.70%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/22/2022, 4.66%.

Six of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, all are monthly payers.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 8/16/2022, 6.16%.

Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty Fund (RFI), 8/16/2022, 6.17%.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 8/16/2022, 7.60%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 8/16/2022, 5.78%.

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 8/18/2022, 8.15%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 8/19/2022, 6.51%.

Earnings season is effectively over, only one stock I follow will be reporting next week, Cisco Systems (CSCO), on 8/17/2022.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Main Street Capital (MAIN) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at SMBC Nikko. PK is on my Tier4 list, after the dividend was reduced during the pandemic. I don’t believe PK will disappear, but it is still not likely to resume a respectable dividend anytime soon.

Welltower (WELL) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at SMBC Nikko.

Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were both resumed at OutPerform at Credit Suisse. This illustrates my view of ratings, interesting as confirmation, but far from being timely enough to be considered actionable advice. If you waited for this rating to act, you would have missed the 50% price run-up, and likely would be buying in at the top.

Alliant Energy (LN) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank of America.

As per my view of recent weeks, I am disappointed in a way, as I had been buying selectively during the downturn, but was holding a lot of cash in reserve, expecting better prices to come. But I must remind myself not to complain because my stocks are showing gains! With the advance of recent weeks, the bargains are disappearing rapidly. Going forward, I will be buying selectively, as opportunities arise, but mostly conserving cash, awaiting better prices. Granted, we have had a “relief rally”, but it remains to be seen whether the downturn is indeed over, or rather returns with a vengeance after suckering investors in.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of August 8, 2022 Beginning Monday 08/08/2022

Posted Sunday 09/07/2022 09:00 AM

After a week with gains and losses, most indexes ended up near where they were at the end of the prior week. While there is much gnashing of teeth over whether we are in a recession or not, the facts are confused, and the reality is “time will tell”. Certainly, the labor market doesn’t seem like we are in one. The stock market is as confused as the pundits. After rebounding from the lows of last spring, it seems stuck, with most averages still 15% to 18% below their post-Covid highs, and the NASDAQ still a bit over 20% below its post-Covid high.

Fortunately, the daily ups and downs don’t matter much to a dividend investor. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 8/8/2022, 8.74%.

American Electric Power (AEP), 8/9/2022, 3.14%.

Smucker JM Co (SJM), 8/11/2022, 3.07%.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), 8/11/2022, 3.98%.

Duke Energy (DUK), 8/11/2022, 3.68%.

Shell PLC (SHEL), 8/11/2022, 3.86%.

United Parcel Service (UPS), 8/12/2022, 3.09%.

Enbridge (ENB), 8/12/2022, 6.20%.

Southern Co (SO), 8/12/2022, 3.52%.

Four of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, all are monthly payers.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 8/12/2022, 7.38%. 

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 8/12/2022, 6.69%.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 8/12/2022, 8.33%.

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 8/12/2022, 4.57%. 

Earnings season continues next week, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting are as follows, listed by date.

8/8/2022

ONEOK (OKE), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), National Health Investors (NHI).

8/9/2022

Barrick Gold (GOLD), Welltower (WELL), Golub Capital (GBDC).

8/10/2022

Pan American Silver (PAAS).

8/11/2022

Algonquin Power (AQN), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo.

Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Seaport Research Partners, and downgraded from OutPerform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.

Intel (INTC) was downgraded from Hold to Sell at DZ Bank.

Apollo Investment (AINV) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Wells Fargo.

Southern Co (SO) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS.

Kellogg (K) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Sandler.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Buy at Bank of America.

Duke Energy (DUK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) was resumed at UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

There is not much one can say about the outlook, we may or may not be in a recession, and if not, we may or may not have one soon. As for stocks, we may have had a temporary pause in the bear market, which will soon resume, or it may be over, with stocks shortly resuming their uptrend. I have been cautiously buying, as long as I can add to a position and improve the cost basis, or buy back a sold position at a price well below where I sold it. But until I see more clarity, I’m moving very cautiously, and maintaining a higher than usual cash position.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of August 1, 2022 Beginning Monday 08/01/2022

Posted Sunday 07/31/2022 02:00 PM

Stocks continued their unexpected rally last week, with most of the major averages I track progressing even further out of Bear Market territory, defined as a decline from recent highs of over 20%. The exception was the NASDAQ, which had declined the most from its post-Covid highs, over 30%, and now is only about 23% below those highs. The Fed, as expected, delivered another .75 point hike on Wednesday, and announced that from this point, their actions will depend on the data. So if you like uncertainty, you are in your element. Absolutely no one has even much of a guess as to where we go from here.

This type of environment is when an investor’s sanity can be salvaged by dividends. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/1/2022, 5.73%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

MPLX LP (MPLX), 8/4/2022, 8.67%.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), 8/4/2022, 8.10%.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), 8/4/2022, 9.53%.

Unilever PLC (UL), 8/4/2022, 3.84%.

Intel (INTC), 8/4/2022, 4.02%. INTC just reported last week, with pundits’ comments describing the quarter just ended as a nightmare, a disaster, a horror show, and at least one stated that the dividend will have to go. If INTC cuts or eliminates the dividend, it will go to my Tier4 list, not recommended.

Energy Transfer LP (ET), 8/5/2022, 8.23%.

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 8/8/2022, 8.80%.

Only two of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, both are monthly payers.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), ex-dividend date 8/1/2022, yield 7.77%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF), ex-dividend date is 8/4/2022, yield is 7.65%.

Earnings season continues next week, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting are as follows, listed by date.

8/1/2022

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Williams Companies (WMB).

8/2/2022

Apollo Investment (AINV), MPLX LP (MPLX), New Residential Investment (NRZ), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), Prudential Financial (PRU), Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), Monroe Capital (MRCC), SLR Investment (SLRC).

8/3/2022

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Energy Transfer LP (ET), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Park Hotels & Resorts (PK), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Realty Income (O), Spirit Realty Capital (SRC), Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), Gladstone Investment (GAIN), Owl Rock Capital (ORCC), PennantPark Investment (PK), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT).

8/4/2022

Chimera Investment (CIM), Duke Energy  (DUK), Iron Mountain (IRM), Kellogg (K), OGE Energy (OGE), Alliant Energy (LNT), B&G Foods (BGS), Ventas (VTR), Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD), Main Street Capital (MAIN), NuStar Energy LP (NS), Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), MFA Financial (MFA).

8/05/2022

None of my stocks report on Friday.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Wells Fargo.

SLR Investment (SLRC) was also downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Wells Fargo.

Unilever PLC (UL) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Newmont (NEM) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at National Bank Finance. With a yield approaching 5%, exceptional for a mining firm, NEM will be promoted to my Tier3 list on my next rework.

Newmont was also upgraded from Hold to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

McDonalds (MCD) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank. MCD was reiterated at Buy at Jeffries & Truist, at OutPerform at RBC Capital, Credit Suisse, & BMO Capital, at OverWeight at Barclays, and at Neutral at Citigroup.

3M Co (MMM) was reiterated at Hold at Deutsche Bank, at Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, at Neutral at Mizuho, Credit Suisse, & Citigroup, and at UnderWeight at Barclays & Morgan Stanley.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Goldman, and from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank of America.

Hercules Capital (HTGC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Perform at Oppenheimer.

Intel (INTC) was downgraded from Neutral to Negative at Susquehanna, and from OutPerform to Neutral at Baird.

I am still in an acquisition mode, even though having to increase my buy prices in most cases. It won’t take much more of a rally from here to put me into neutral, neither looking to buy nor sell. But for now, some attractive prices are still available, just not as attractive as I had thought a few weeks ago would be available at this point.

JT

 

1st Posting for Week of July 25, 2022 Beginning Monday 07/25/2022

Posted Sunday 07/24/2022 11:00 AM

The unexpected rally that started on July 15 basically continued last week. A minor pullback on Monday was followed on Tuesday with huge gains even slightly more than the major up day on the 15th. After that, small advances on Wednesday and Thursday, and a small pullback on Friday, ended the week. To get a perspective on the big picture, the S&P 500 index had declined a little more than 20% from the January highs as of July 14, with the pundits proclaiming a bear market was now reality, but action since then has put the index as of Friday’s close only about 18% below the January highs.

The short-term direction from this point is anybody’s guess, and the same can be said for the potential of a recession in the near future. But one thing I can predict with near-certainty is the dividend income coming from my stocks that have announced distributions. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 7/26/2022, 9.57%. PSEC pays monthly.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 7/28/2022. 11.78%. AGNC is another monthly payer.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), 7/28/2022, 7.39%.

Plains All-American Pipeline LP (PAA), 7/28/2022, 8.13%. PAA was moved to my Tier4 list after cutting the distribution, but for the moment the high-yield payout looks to be safe, and PAA will be moved back to Tier3 on the next rework of my Tiers.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 7/28/2022, 4.68%. STAG pays monthly.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), 7/28/2022, 5.04%.

Alliant Energy (LNT), 7/28/2022, 2.98%.

Hoegh LNG Partners LP (HMLP), 7/29/2022, 0.44%. HMLP drastically cut their payout to a penny per quarter in July 2021, blindsiding holders, as there was no warning. While a finance issue was blamed, it has been charged that there was some underhanded dealing going on. Recently, it has been announced that the MLP will be acquired by the parent, at a premium to the distressed market price, but well short of where it was prior to the drastic cut. I sold, this was the best it was going to be. The entire HMLP saga is a reminder why one must diversify. HMLP will be gone from my Tier4 (not recommended) list on my next rework.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 7/29/2022, 6.29%.

Realty Income (O), 7/29/2022, 4.21%. O pays monthly. A good rule for O is buy when the yield is above 5%, sell when it drops below 4%.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), 7/29/2022, 8.82%.

ONEOK (OKE), 7/29/2022, 6.45%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/1/2022, 6.09%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

Only one of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), ex-dividend date 8/1/2022, yield 8.45%. Like most CEFs, FPF pays monthly.

We are now getting into the thick of earnings season, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting next week are as follows, listed by date.

7/25/2022

Newmont Mining (NEM).

7/26/2022

3M Co, Ares Capital, Coca Cola (KO), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), McDonalds (MCD), United Parcel Service (UPS), Unilever (UL), Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP).

7/27/2022

Getty Realty (GTY), American Electric Power (AEP), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), STAG Industrial (STAG), VICI Properties (VICI).

7/28/2022

Shell PLC (SHEL), Ladder Capital (LADR), Altria (MO), Kimco Realty (KIM), Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Southern Co (SO), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Intel (INTC), Welltower (WELL).

7/29/2022

Chevron (CVX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Enbridge (ENB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Procter & Gamble (PG).

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was initiated at Buy at Mizuho.

Plains All-American Pipeline (PAA) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Bank of America.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Sandler.

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at HSBC Securities.

VICI Properties (VICI) was resumed at OutPerform at Evercore ISI.

Unilever (UL) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Bernstein.

AT&T (T) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Sector OutPerform to Sector Perform at Scotiabank.

While the market is always difficult to predict, the uptick since July 14 has certainly given the doomsayers a pause. My take is the decline will likely resume as the Fed continues to tighten, but assuming the Fed “stays the course” until inflation is brought down, the ensuing recession will not be like 2001-2002 or 2008-2009. Like always, one needs to be positioned for multiple scenarios, no one can predict how the future will unfold, so any “all in” bet on any given scenario is unwise.

JT