JT’s DAILY (WEEKLY as of 12/9/2013) BLOG for Month Of January 2017

Note: All previous month's posts are available in the archives, as noted above. 

All postings for the month are available here, sorted in descending order - i.e. most recent at the top.

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 01/30/2017

Posted Sunday 01/29/2017 8:00 PM

The political fireworks has begun in earnest, as Trump moves forward forcefully on his agenda. Even as things heat up in Washington, the stock market surged last week, with the venerable Dow Industrials Index breaking through the 20000 level on Wednesday, and staying above it through the rest of the week. Earnings season is now in full swing, but I wonder if anyone is paying attention, with the political news dominating the news flow, even the financial media.

The lineup of stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week is as follows:

Realty Income (O), 1/30/2017, yield 4.22%. O pays monthly.

Paychex (PAYX), 1/30/2017, yield 2.99%.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 1/30/2017, yield 2.23%.

Williams Partners (WPZ), 2/1/2017, yield 8.10%.

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP), 2/1/2017, yield 4.25%.

Pfizer (PFE), 2/1/2017, yield 4.09%.

Norfolk Southern (NSC), 2/1/2017, yield 2.04%.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP), 2/3/2017, yield 10.82%.

Energy Equity Partners L P (ETE), 2/3/2017, yield 6.01%.

Martin Midstream Partners L P (MMLP), 2/3/2017, yield 10.28.

Crestwood Equity Partners L P (CEQP), 2/3/2017, yield 9.00%.

Welltower (HCN), 2/3/2017, yield 5.26%.

Intel (INTC), 2/3/2017, yield 2.77%.

One ex-dividend date from last week that I missed was Alliant Energy (LNT), 1/27/2017, yield 3.44%.

All eighteen stocks listed last week as scheduled to report earnings did so as scheduled. See last week’s posting for the names and reporting dates. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha.

The earnings parade continues this week. Following are the stocks on my lists that will be reporting, by date;

1/30/2017

Enterprise Products Partners L P (EPD).

1/31/2017

Exxon Mobil (XOM), Nucor (NUE), NuStar Energy L P (NS), Pfizer (PFE), Potlatch (PCH), United Parcel Service (UPS), Valero (VLO). 

2/1/2017

Altria (MO), AGNC Investment (AGNC), Amerigas Partners L P (APU), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA).

2/2/2017

ConocoPhillips (COP), Eaton (ETN), Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP), Merck (MRK), Phillip Morris (PM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Kimco (KIM), Exelon (EXC).  

Analyst rating updates on stocks I follow from last week were as follows:

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded to OutPerform at BMO Capital.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

SCANA (SCG) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Macquarie.

Alliant Energy (LNT) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Macquarie.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at FBR & Co, and from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Sysco (SYY) was initiated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

3M Co (MMM) was reiterated at Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was reiterated at OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was initiated at Hold at Berenberg.

CenturyLink (CTL) upgraded from UnderPerform to Hold at Jeffries.

Duke Energy (DUK) was initiated at Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Exelon (EXC) was initiated at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

HCP Inc (HCP) was upgraded to Buy at Goldman.

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Transocean (RIG) was downgraded to Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.

Southern Co (SO) was initiated at UnderPerform at Credit Suisse.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was initiated at Market Perform at Buckingham Research.

Vodafone (VOD) was downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

AT&T (T) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets, and at Market Perform at FBR & Co.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) reiterated at OutPerform at Cowen & Co.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was initiated at Neutral at Credit Suisse.

AT&T (T) was reiterated at Market Perform at FBR & Co.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel Nicolaus, and at OutPerform at both RBC Capital Markets and BMO Capital Markets.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman.

Greif (GEF) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Intel (INTC) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Citigroup.

Intel (INTC) was reiterated at Buy at Needham.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was reiterated at Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

For upgrades/downgrades, I give the prior rating if available from my source. I formerly skipped reiterations, since these are not rating changes, but now I include them, as they represent a new evaluation result, even if the review did not result in an upgrade or downgrade. Thus, I now present all available new ratings. Now be aware that these are presented as being of interest, but not as actionable advice. For one thing, the ratings nearly always only consider the near-term expectation of the stock price movement, not the long-term value as an investment, with dividends considered. Each firm has its own ratings terms. Most are self-explanatory, although some are somewhat strange. An example is a rating of “Perform”. Perform how, I would ask? If the company is an ongoing concern and the stock is traded, it will certainly “Perform” in some fashion, but the rating doesn’t indicate how. I consider a Perform rating as equivalent to Neutral. For that matter, Hold or Neutral ratings are not of much use – it is as if the analyst cannot come to a conclusion on what the prognosis really is for the stock. Still, I always find it to be of interest when a firm indicates a view of a stock, whatever the view. The full reports can sometimes be found, often through brokerage websites that provide analyst reports to their account holders. The full ratings report can indicate what is behind the rating.    

Well, one week into the new regime, and the usual suspects are squealing loudly, as the Donald proceeds to do what he said he would do. He certainly will shake up Washington, but the beneficiaries of business as usual will definitely not go away quietly. The usual stock market doomsayers have mostly doubled-down on their predictions of a coming market storm. While they may end up being right, it certainly hasn’t happened yet. What has happened is that valuations of the most favored blue-chips have mostly reached new highs, and correspondingly, yields have reached new lows, such that these stocks are not attractive candidates for new money. Meanwhile, out of favor sectors, such as Energy, REITs, CEFs, and BDCs offer decent yields, with risks to match. Now is a time to be cautious, perhaps sell something here and there that has gotten way over-valued, but just be aware that re-entry at a reduced level may not be possible anytime soon. Widely predicted market crashes have a way of NOT happening on schedule.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 01/23/2017

Posted Sunday 01/22/2017 8:00 AM

The pending inauguration and transfer of power overshadowed business and economic news last week. Notably, the market declined each market day for five days in a row through Thursday 1/19/2017, with what may have been a relief rally occurring the next day, possibly because the day of transfer was finally at hand. Still, the declines were relatively modest, and the market gains since 11/8/2016 have held up, even as the Dow Industrials average has not yet breached the milestone 20000 level, which seemed imminent for a time.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are as follows:

ONEOK Partners L P (OKS), 1/26/2017, yield 7.26%.

ConAgra Brands (CAG), 1/26/2017, yield 2.07%. 

Enterprise Products Partners L P (EPD), 1/27/2017, yield 5.93%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 1/27/2017, yield 11.37%. AGNC pays monthly.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA), 1/27/2017, yield 7.21%.

Enerplus (ERF), 1/27/2017, yield 0.99%. ERF pays 1 cent CAN monthly.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 1/27/2017, yield 5.84%. STAG pays monthly.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 1/27/2017, yield 11.66%.  PSEC pays monthly.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 1/30/2017, yield 2.23%.

Realty Income (O), 1/30/2017, yield 4.27%. O pays monthly.

Paychex (PAYX), 1/30/2017, yield 3.02%.

As expected, two of my stocks reported last week, Kinder Morgan (KMI) and General Electric (GE). There are some interesting articles on Seeking Alpha on both firms divining the meaning of the reported results and the prognosis for investors.

Earnings season begins in earnest this week, with quarterly reports expected from the following firms on my lists:

1/23/2017

McDonalds (MCD).

1/24/2017

3M Co (MMM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Verizon (VZ).

1/25/2017

Freeport-McMoran (FCX), Novartis (NVS), AT&T (T), Norfolk Southern (NSC).

1/26/2017

American Electric Power (AEP), Blackstone Group L P (BX), Raytheon (RTN), Intel (INTC), MicroSoft (MSFT).

1/27/2017

Chevron (CVX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), General Dynamics (GD), NextEra Energy (NEE).

While the number of upgrades/downgrades coming out on my stocks last week was less than the deluge the previous week, there were a few, as listed:

Eni S p A (E) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Capital One.

Vodafone (VOD) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

Valero (VLO) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was resumed at Equal Weight at Barclays.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was initiated at Neutral at Buckingham Research.

Reynolds American (RAI) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup. RAI is being acquired by British American Tobacco PLC (BIT). If you owned it before the news came out, you saw a nice price bump, and you should sell. If not, skip RAI, it is not likely to increase, and will be disappearing after the deal is completed. Further, if for some reason it does not go through, the shares will likely give back the take-over premium.

Diebold (DBD) was upgraded from Inline to OutPerform at Imperial Capital. DBD is on my Tier4 list (not recommended), following a huge dividend cut.

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded to Buy at HSBC.

Coca Cola (KO) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Main Street Capital was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at FBR & Co.

Welltower (HCN) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at SunTrust.

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was resumed at Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

The usual pundits are somewhat at a loss as to what the New Year will bring, considering Trump’s agenda, turmoil in Europe, possible new trade restrictions, Fed tightening, and much more. One wag long ago stated that, even if one knew exactly what was going to happen, you still couldn’t benefit, because the effect on stocks, meaning how investors will react to events, is also unknowable. So, I plan to continue as before, considering price, yield, performance, and other non-event driven factors in my deliberations whether to buy, sell, or hold. Right now, based on prices (high), yields (low) and performance (maxed out), I lean towards hold or sell in most cases.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Tuesday 01/17/2017

Posted Sunday 01/15/2017 9:00 AM

Stocks ended the week roughly where they began, as the blue chips lost ground slightly, while the NASDAQ and the small caps gained slightly. The excitement continues to build regarding the Trump inauguration, with the abnormal political season continuing. The Dems’ more radical elements (i.e. this is most of them, there aren’t many moderates left) seem determined to follow a “scorched earth” strategy to obstruct the new administration to the maximum extent possible, regardless of the consequences. Thus far, the markets have taken the turmoil in stride, with the gains since November 8th holding.

Dividend activity remains minimal, with just six stocks on my lists going ex-dividend next week:

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 1/17/2017, yield 11.88%.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 1/18/2017, yield 8.79%. GAIN pays monthly.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 1/18/2017, yield 6.01%. MAIN also pays monthly.

General Dynamics (GD), 1/18/2017, yield 1.72%. I usually drop a stock if the yield shrinks to less than 2%, but for now I have suspended that practice, because valuations are so high.

Procter & Gamble (PG), 1/18/2017, yield 3.19%.

Colgate Palmolive (CL), 1/19/2017, yield 2.37%.

ConocoPhillips (COP) and Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) are due to announce soon, but as of this writing have not done so.

Earnings season is looming, starting off slowly as usual, but will be building into an avalanche soon. Two of my stocks are scheduled to report this week: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) on 1/18/2017, and General Electric (GE) on 1/20/2017. Both are widely followed, so there are sure to be a lot of articles on Seeking Alpha and elsewhere after they report.

While earnings and dividend announcements may be minimal, not so for upgrades / downgrades, as the analysts have returned from the holiday break with sharpened pencils and strong opinions, in some cases at least. Analyst rating actions on my stocks from last week are listed as follows:

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Realty Income (O) was downgraded from Market Perform to UnderPerform at Raymond James.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was downgraded to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Pepsico (PEP) was initiated at Equal Weight at Barclays.

Washington Real Estate (WRE) was upgraded to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Nucor (NUE) was upgraded from Sector Weight to OverWeight at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was initiated at Neutral at Seaport Global Securities.

American Electric Power (AEP) was initiated at Neutral at Guggenheim.

DrPepper Snapple (DPS) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman.

Main Street Capital (MAIN) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Robert W Baird.

Monroe Capital (MRCC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Robert W Baird.

Digital Realty (DLR) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

DrPepperSnapple (DPS) was initiated at Equal Weight at Barclays.

Kimco Realty (KIM) was upgraded to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Kimberly Clark (KMB) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Coca Cola (KO) was initiated at Equal Weight at Barclays.

Mid America Apartment Communities (MAA) was initiated at Neutral at UBS.

Eaton (ETN) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Ensco PLC (ESV) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Bernstein.

Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Bernstein.

American Electric Power (AEP) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was downgraded from OutPerform to UnderPerform at CLSA.

Vodafone (VOD) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was downgraded to Sector Perform at Scotia Bank.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

Chevron (CVX) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

Welltower (HCN) was reiterated at Neutral at Mizuho.

Duke Energy (DUK) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at Citigroup.

Eni S p A (E) was upgraded to Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas.

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP) was downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

Paychex (PAYX) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at Bernstein.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

AT&T (T) was downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

ConAgra (CAG) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Societe Generale.

Ensco PLC (ESV) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded from Market Perform to Strong Buy at Raymond James.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was initiated at OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

Novartis (NVS) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Raytheon (RTN) was initiated at OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP) was downgraded to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Crestwood Equity Partners L P (CEQP) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Merck (MRK) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Jaffray, from Neutral to Buy at Guggenheim, and from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Morgan Stanley.

Noble Corp PLC (NE) and Ensco PLC (ESV) were upgraded to Buy at Citigroup.

Valero (VLO) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

Merck (MRK) was initiated at Buy at Garnier.

With valuations getting stretched, many stocks are seeing lowered ratings even though the firms are doing just fine. This merely reflects the fact that, as an example, a good company at a good price is a buy, while the same company with a sky-high price is a hold or a neutral, or possibly an underperform or an underweight, or even a sell. I have sold several stocks for just this reason. My expectation is that I will be able to buy them back at a more reasonable price, sooner or later. 

My approach is that an investor cannot ignore fluctuations in price, and cannot be overly attached to a particular investment. A poorly performing company with valuable assets can be a screaming buy at a low enough price, while an outstanding company setting new records in sales and profits can be a sell at a high enough price. Right now, there are too many falling into the latter category. It will be interesting to see what happens with stock prices when the new administration takes over.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 01/09/2017

Posted Saturday 01/07/2017 7:30 PM

Happy New Year! To start off the New Year, it seems like a good time to reiterate, via a brief synopsis, what my website (www.optimumstockinvesting.com) is all about. Note that the associated Facebook page is a copy of my recurring blog (initially daily, now weekly) from the website. The purpose of the website is to present a comprehensive approach to investing in stocks, based primarily on dividend-paying stocks, acquired carefully at reasonable prices, with market fluctuations utilized to average down, or take profits from occasional trades. An approach to using options to add to returns is also presented. I have an identified subset of stocks I follow, categorized into four lists, or tiers. I originally decreed that the number of stocks followed would be capped at 100, but currently the total is over 130. Tier1 stocks are the safest, strongest firms, the least likely to cut their dividends or go bankrupt. Tier1 yields are usually in the low single digits. Tier2 stocks are less safe, with risk factors that Tier1 stocks do not have, and while dividend cuts may occur, the firms are unlikely to go bankrupt, barring a severe economic downturn, or more likely, disastrous management decisions, such as an ill-advised acquisition. For example, MLPs are by definition in this category, as they have a built-in risk factor of an adverse change in the tax code. Tier3 stocks are either high-yield or high potential for capital gains, and can do very well if the economy remains strong or the fundamentals change for the better in their sector. Included here are BDCs, MREITs, rural telecoms, metals miners, and less substantial MLPs. Obviously, if hard times strike, these firms will cut or eliminate their dividends, and may go bankrupt. Rarely, but once in a while in reaction to extreme conditions, some names will appear on Tier3 which have either no dividends or inconsequential yields, in which case these names are pure speculation on potential capital gains, and are a departure from my basic formula. Tier4 stocks are the “walking dead”, stocks previously on the other lists, but that now are no longer recommended, even as pure speculation. If they ever had dividends, they are now absent or greatly reduced, and bankruptcy is a real possibility. I have given up on these firms, but I will continue to track them as an exercise in masochism, as long as they continue to hang on and are active firms, with their stocks still trading. There is even a remote chance they may recover and get back to at least my Tier3 list. My recurring Weekly Blog, presented on the website and duplicated on the Facebook page, mostly consists of updates on happenings related to the universe of stocks I track, plus some general commentary on the state of the markets and the larger world situation which affects them.

My website explains the approach I follow in detail, and contains a wealth of information and resources. My basic approach is based on the value investing approach outlined by Ben Graham in his classic works, updated a bit for the modern era, with just a hint of a trader’s mindset incorporated. The key take-away I want viewers to gain from my creation is an understanding of the risks inherent in stocks, as well as the rewards, and the need for caution and diversification, and most of all, the realization that ANYTHING can happen, nothing is 100% safe or guaranteed!

Now, back to my regularly scheduled weekly presentation.

Stocks continued to advance as the New Year moved into the first full week of trade. The closely-watched Dow Industrials Index came within a smidgen of 20,000 intraday on Friday 1/6/2017, as the “Trump Rally” continued. Many if not most pundits are of the opinion that the rally is premature, and that the market has “gotten ahead of itself” based purely on expectations of a more business-friendly administration in Washington. The implication is that the market is overdue for a substantial pull-back. That may be, but one thing is certain – the political news will continue to dominate the news flow, as the transition to the new administration occurs, and probably for a long time thereafter.

Meanwhile, the number of stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week is at an all-time low, with just four names identified, all going ex-dividend 1/11/2017:

Fifth Street Financial (FSC), yield 12.86%. FSC is a monthly payer.

RPM International (RPM), yield 2.28%.

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), yield 3.55%.

Consolidated Communications Holdings (CNSL), yield 5.68%.

The only firm on my lists expected to report last week, RPM International (RPM), did so on 1/5/2017 as scheduled, missing by nine cents on earnings but beating estimates on revenue. See the firm’s website, articles from the financial news media, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha, for details.

None of my stocks are scheduled to report in the upcoming week.

The upgrade/downgrade activity level subsided during the end-of-year time frame. Ratings coming out on my stocks since 12/27/2016 were as follows:

Senior Housing Properties (SNH) was initiated at OverWeight at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Standpoint Research.

Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) was initiated at Accumulate at Standpoint Research.

Ventas (VTR) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at JP Morgan.

CenturyLink (CTL) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus Research.

Valero (VLO) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at JP Morgan.

Welltower (HCN) was upgraded to OverWeight at Mitsubishi UFJ.

HCP Inc (HCP) was resumed at Equal Weight at Barclays.

Transocean (RIG) was upgraded to Buy at Arctic Securities.

McDonalds (MCD) was downgraded to Neutral at UBS.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was initiated at Buy at BofA/Merrill.

The prior rating is noted if it was available from my source. To reiterate my standard admonition on analyst ratings, I only list these as information, not as actionable advice. By the time downgrades occur, it is usually too late to sell, and by the time upgrades occur, it is usually too late to buy. Further, sometimes the recommendations seem to be the opposite of what one would expect. Also, note that the recommendations are almost totally based on expected near-term direction of the stock price, not on the long term value as an investment, with dividends considered. Still, it is interesting to see what an analyst has to say about a stock I follow, especially if I own some shares. Sometimes it is possible to view the complete analyst report, either via brokerage websites or online sleuthing, if a rating is of enough interest that one desires to determine what is behind the rating.

As we prepare to move into the New Year in earnest, buy opportunities are practically non-existent, with prices on most issues at sky-high levels. This is evidenced by the low yields available. There are some BDCs, MREITs, Rural Telecoms, Metals Miners, and beaten-down Oil & Gas Production and Drilling stock bargains available, for good reason, as these are highest-risk sectors. Property REITs are off their highs, as the prospect of higher interest rates in the coming year seems likely. Property REITs with large mall holdings are also down somewhat, as “brick & mortar” retailers continue to struggle. Recent “flash mob” invasions of malls has also dampened enthusiasm for retail REITs. Probably the best example here is the drop of Realty Income (O) from the 70’s to the mid-50’s since mid-year 2016. At this time, for yield-seeking investors, Closed-End Funds (CEFs) with high yields, trading at a substantial discount from the Net Asset Value of their holdings, might be the best place for cash earning nothing. I’m looking at several, and I may add some of these to my lists in the New Year. Right now, the only CEF on my lists is Kayne Anderson Energy Development Company (KED). KED is not the bargain it was a year ago, but it is still substantially off the highs it reached in 2014-2015, and currently yields nearly 10%. Any CEFs I add will be on my Tier3 list, high-yield, and high risk.

2017 will definitely be a challenging year for investors, which of course was the case for all the prior years. The challenges may be different from one year to the next, but there always will be plenty. That we can count on.

JT