Stocks rallied strongly on Wednesday, with all of the major averages gaining over 1%. So the answer to the question, is the bull run still on, is a resounding yes! Overnight, before the U.S. open, Asian markets mostly finished with gains. Japan, Hong Kong, and Shanghai were all up 2% or more, Singapore was up slightly, and only India closed down, over 1.5%. European markets all finished with respectable gains. As of this hour, with about 45 minutes to go, U.S. stocks are posting modest gains today (Thursday).

The major economic release of the day, that 4^th Quarter GDP only gained 0.1%, was a disappointment. The weekly read on Unemployment Claims came in slightly better than expected.

None of my stocks have received any upgrades / downgrades since my last post.

Two of my stocks have reported since my last posting:   

Ares Capital (ARCC) reported Q4 EPS of $0.45, beating by four cents.

Greif (GEF, GEF.B) reported Q4 EPS of $0.43, missing by ten cents. Revenue was $1.01B, up 1.6% Y/Y, beating by $12.78M.

This will be my final posting for the week, as I will be on the road Friday. I will attempt to catch up with a week-end update, and then it will be catch-as-catch-can until I finish my move and get Internet service at the new residence. But for now, it appears the bulls have won the day, and the week, barring a complete turnaround tomorrow.

JT  

Stocks exhibited schizophrenic behavior Tuesday, when, after a faltering start, the market erupted into a substantial rally, finishing with decent gains on all of the major averages. Still, the gains only partially recovered the prior day losses. While the economic releases regarding housing and consumer confidence were positive, the main catalyst for the rally was likely commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke, as he defended Fed policy before Congress.

Overnight, Asian markets finished mostly up, with only Japan posting a decline, over 1%. European markets are all trading with gains at this hour. Durable Orders for January were down 5.2%, as reported this morning, which was not exactly positive from an economic standpoint. Surprisingly, the stock index futures are still slightly positive, even after the release.

After I posted yesterday, a couple of additional upgrades / downgrades came out on my stocks:

ONEOK Partners LP (OKS) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Altria (MO) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

This morning, so far, none of my stocks have been upgraded / downgraded.

Only one of my stocks reported yesterday, Exterran Partners (EXLP), which reported Q4 EPS of $0.31, beating by thirteen cents. Revenue was $102.3M, up 3% Y/Y, beating by $1.4M.

Mortgage REIT MFA Financial (MFA) was originally listed as reporting February 26, but I have not seen anything. Yahoo Finance shows MFA reporting on February 18, which did not occur. I cannot find anything on the MFA website regarding when earnings will be reported. I will just have to wait and keep watching for MFA’s report, I have no idea when it will be coming out.  

It will be interesting to see how the market performs today, after the big moves up and down the past several sessions. It might be time for a slow day.

My posting is likely going to be irregular for the next few days, as I am going to be moving from Grand Lake in NorthEast Oklahoma to Austin, Texas. I will do the best I can to keep up with my stocks and the markets, and post accordingly, but I may miss a day here and there. This is a U-Haul move, and my first in over ten years. I can hardly wait to get started. That was a joke! Anyway, I should be back to a semblance of normalcy by March 11 or so.

JT

Stocks rose up at the open, as the futures had indicated, but after about a half hour or so, buyers evidently got cold feet. From about 10:00 AM onward, stocks stair-stepped down, such that by the end of the day, all of the major averages registered hefty declines of 1.5% or so. The fact that the sell off accelerated during the final hour of trading will likely cause market pundits to question whether the rally that has been going on since the beginning of the year, which Friday seemed to be resuming after a two-day hiatus, is in fact going to resume. Although it seemed like it might be so early Monday morning, considering Friday’s big jump, and the positive vibes from overseas markets overnight before the open on Monday, it sure does not seem like it now.  

Overnight, Asian markets declined universally, well over 1% in all cases. European markets are trading down substantially, over 4% in the case of Italy, and over 2% for Spain and France. Italy, and indeed all of the Euro countries, has been affected by the showing of an anti-austerity candidate in the Sunday election. At the moment, however, U.S. futures are positive. Of course, the futures were positive this time yesterday as well, and the market dropped the most it has declined on one day this year. So, I cannot take too much comfort from the fact that the futures are positive.

Upgrades / downgrades on my stocks since yesterday’s post are as follows: 

Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP) was initiated at Buy at Ladenburg during the day Monday.

This morning, I have two more analyst actions to report:

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at BofA/Merrill. The reason cited was valuation and anticipated difficulty growing sales.

Wal-Mart (WMT) was initiated at Neutral at Cowen.

Three of my stocks reported after the close on Monday:

Health Care REIT (HCN) reported Q4 FFO of $0.85, beating by a penny. Revenue was $500.6M, beating by $2.96M.

Solar Capital (SLRC) reported Q4 EPS of $0.60, beating by a penny.

ONEOK Partners LP (OKS) reported Q4 EPS of $0.66, beating by four cents.

Today will be a major test for either the bulls or the bears, as we strive to determine whether the bull run is intact, or a correction is under way.

JT

Stocks rallied strongly on Friday, with all of the major averages up nearly 1%. After only two days of modest declines, the rally that has been happening since the first of the year is back on, it seems. Overnight, Asian markets finished with gains, with Japan up over 2%. European markets are likewise trading up, with Germany and Italy gaining over 2%, as the outcome of the Sunday election in Italy is awaited. There are no economic releases scheduled for today. U.S. futures are up strongly, with less than an hour to go until the open.

I have a few upgrades / downgrades to report this morning on my stocks:

Heinz (HNZ) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Williams Partners LP (WPZ) was downgraded from Buy to Accumulate at Global Hunter.

Eaton (ETN) was initiated at OutPerform by Credit Suisse.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are:

Novartis A G (NVS), 2/26/2013, yield 3.66%. This is an annual dividend.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 2/26/2013, yield 11.76%. PSEC is a monthly dividend payer.

McDonalds (MCD), 2/27/2013, yield 3.23%.

NextEra (NEE), 2/27/2013, yield 3.63%.

Realty Income (O), 2/27/2013, yield 4.88%.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 2/27/2013, yield 4.95%.

Kellogg (K), 2/28/2013, yield 2.93%.

Molson Coors (TAP), 2/28/2013, yield 2.75%.

Enerplus (ERF), 3/1/2013, yield 8.34%. ERF pays monthly.

Earnings expected this week on stocks I follow are as follows:

2/25/2013 – Health Care REIT (HCN) and ONEOK Partners LP (OKS), both after the close.

2/26/2013 – MFA Financial (MFA), before the open.

2/27/2013 – Ares Capital (ARCC), before the open, and Greif (GEF.B), after the close.

2/28/2013 – Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC), after the close.

Earnings season is winding down. Overall, results on my stocks have been better than expected, as has been the case for the market overall. Never underestimate the value of setting a low bar for expectations, so when companies can achieve or exceed the targets, stocks can rally. That is probably true of most things in life – it is not the actual results that matter, it is how those results compare to what was expected.   

JT

Stocks continued their decline on Thursday, although by the closing bell the averages were up a bit from the lows of the day, which occurred in the middle of the afternoon. The economic readings came in about as expected, except for the Philly Fed reading, which indicated a more significant slowdown in business activity in that region than anticipated.

Overnight, Asian markets mostly closed lower, with Japan being the exception, closing up 0.68%. European markets are all trading in the green at this hour. U.S. futures are positive. No economic releases are scheduled for today.

Three of my oil companies received upgrades / downgrades so far this morning:

Total (TOT) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Canaccord.

Chevron (CVX) was initiated at Buy at Canaccord.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was initiated at Hold at Canaccord.

Catching up on earnings that have come out this week on my stocks, since my last update on this topic, we have a few:

PVR Partners LP (PVR) reported a Q4 loss of $0.30 EPS. Revenue was $269.5M, missing by $10.69M. The shares have been hammered down over $2 since the report came out Wednesday morning.

Williams Partners LP (WPZ) reported Wednesday that Q4 EPS was $0.42, missing by eight cents.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) reported Wednesday that Q4 EPS was $0.56, which the firm said may not be comparable to consensus of $0.40. Revenue was $10.98M.

Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE) reported Wednesday that Q4 EPS was $0.05, which the firm said may not be comparable to consensus of $0.54. Revenue was $11.3M, beating by $4.53M.

Wal-Mart (WMT) reported Thursday morning that Q4 EPS was $1.67, beating by ten cents. Revenue was $127.1B, up 3.9% Y/Y, missed by $1.72B. Considered a retail bellwether, reduced guidance and a leaked executive memo lamenting weak sales have hit the shares of WMT and others since the report came out.

Scana (SCG) reported Q4 EPS of $0.78, in-line. Revenue was $1.12B, beating by $0.02B.

Public Service (PEG) reported Q4 EPS of $0.41, beating by two cents.

Frontier Communications (FTR), a beaten-down rural telecom, is due to report after the close today. FTR is on my list of high-yield, high-risk stocks. However, at mid-morning Thursday, ahead of the earnings release, FTR declared the current dividend will remain in place, for one more quarter at least. The $0.10 dividend as declared gives FTR a yield exceeding 10% at today’s depressed price, struggling to hold at $4.00. Probably no one can argue that the future is bright for rural telecoms, at this point. If you want high yield, you usually have to accept high-risk. If the company even survives, an investment will likely be a winner, if buying in at this level, especially if the dividend can be maintained. But just be sure you don’t bet the ranch on FTR, or any stock yielding 10% or more. Those yields don’t come without high risk.    

Frontier reported Q4 EPS of $0.06, missing by a penny. Revenue was $1.23B, down 4% Y/Y, missing by $10M. It must have been better than expected, the shares traded up 0.3% in the after-hours trade.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reported FQ1 EPS of $0.82, beating by eleven cents. Revenue was $28.36B, down 6% Y/Y, beating by $570M. These results were definitely better than expected. The shares traded up over 5% in the after-hours market.

Heinz (HNZ) reported FQ3 EPS of $0.99, beating by nine cents. Revenue was $2.93B, up 2% Y/Y, missing by $60M.

CenturyLink (CTL) has continued to recover since the huge sell off it sustained last week, closing yesterday at $34.27, up more than $2.00 from the low point. So far, buying during the panic sell off has been a good move. I’ll keep watching, it will be interesting to see if I can say that several months from now.

JT

Stocks started the day Wednesday on a down note, and the sell off intensified as the day wore on, exacerbated by the release of the Fed minutes at 2:00 PM, in which it was suggested that the current QE policy may end sooner than had been previously stated. All of the major stock averages ended with losses, more than 1% in all cases except the Dow Industrials, which was down .77%. Overnight, Asian markets followed the U.S. lead, declining well over 1% on all bourses.  European markets are trading down similarly at this hour, as the European market day is just past the half way mark.

After a slow week on the economic news front, things pick up today, with the Weekly Unemployment report, CPI for January, Philadelphia Fed report, Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales for January, and Oil / Natural Gas Inventories. U.S. futures are down, indicating the sell off in stocks will continue.

Only a couple of upgrades / downgrades have come out this morning on my stocks:

Ventas (VTR) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Macquarie.

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS. Yet the price target was raised from $33.00 to $37.50. Strange as it may seem, this is not uncommon, a downgrade and yet an increase in the price target. Read analyst reports for the content, but don’t pay too much attention to the recommendations and price targets.

If this sell off really gathers steam, it may be time to make a buy or two. The question is, will the sell off end abruptly, or is it just the start of a long-predicted major decline of 10% to 15%, or worse?

JT

U.S. stocks closed at five-year highs Tuesday, on the Dow Industrials at least, spurred by strong gains in Europe and M&A activity. No one seems to want to throw cold water on this steaming hot market action by mentioning the huge cutbacks in government spending that are due to occur beginning March 1^st if no budget agreement is reached soon. But heck, we’ll worry about that next week. For now, it’s time to party like 1999, or maybe 2007. 

Overnight, Asian markets all finished with gains. European markets are trading mixed, with Britain and Germany up, France, Italy, and Spain down. U.S. futures are flat. Economic releases on tap for today are Housing Starts and Building Permits for January, and Producer Price readings, also for January. The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting will be released at 2:00 PM.

Only one upgrade / downgrade to report this AM, as Windstream (WIN) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at UBS. It looks like the game is up on the high-dividend rural telecoms. WIN had been one of the better performers in this space.

Two of my stocks reported Tuesday before the open:

Windstream (WIN) reported Q4 EPS of $0.11, missing by two cents. Revenue was $1.54B, down 2% Y/Y, in-line.

Medtronic (MDT) reported FQ3 EPS of $0.93, beating by two cents. Revenue of $4.03B, up 3% Y/Y, in-line.

As we edge closer to sequestration, due to occur March 1, I expect the political standoff to dominate the news flow. It’s hard to see how the stock rally can continue in that environment, but then it’s been hard to see how it could have been happening anyway these past several months. It will end sometime, I just cannot say when. Enjoy it while it lasts.

JT

Stocks mostly posted small declines on Friday, with only the Dow Industrials posting a small gain, among the major averages. Overnight, before the Monday holiday here, Asian markets posted mixed results, with Japan, India, and Singapore up, and Shanghai and Hong Kong down. European markets also turned in mixed results, with Germany and France up, Britain, Italy, and Spain down. Then, after the U.S. holiday, Asian markets again turned in mixed results, this time with Japan, Hong Kong, and Shanghai down, India and Singapore up. European markets, just past the halfway point, are all trading in the green at this hour. U.S. futures are positive.

The only economic release scheduled for today is the NAHB Housing Index, due out at 10:00 AM.

Only a couple of upgrades / downgrades have come out so far today on my stocks:

Vodafone (VOD) was downgraded from Market Perform to UnderPerform at Bernstein.

Statoil (STO) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at HSBC.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are:

MicroSoft (MSFT), 2/19/2013, yield 3.28%.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), 2/19/2013, yield 7.98%.

GlaxoSmithKlein (GSK), 2/20/2013, yield 5.14%.

Diebold (DBD), 2/20/2013, yield 3.84%.

General Electric (GE), 2/21/2013, yield 3.26%.

United Parcel Service (UPS), 2/21/2013, yield 2.73%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 2/22/2013, yield 3.20%.

Earnings on my stocks scheduled to come out this week are:

2/19/2013, before the open – Medtronic (MDT), WindStream (WIN).

2/20/2013, before the open – PVR Partners LP (PVR).

2/20/2013, after the close – Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), and Williams Partners LP (WPZ).

2/21/2013, before the open – Heinz (HNZ), MFA Financial (MFA), Public Service Enterprise Group  (PEG), SCANA (CG), and  Wal-Mart (WMT).

2/21/2013, after the close – Frontier Communications (FTR), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Actually, HPQ is not on my lists, but since I wrote about it a few months ago, I am still following it.       

I have read with interest several articles on CenturyLink (CTL), with a lot of differing opinions. Since I was out of the stock when the bad news came out, I have an emotional detachment that a holder suffering a 26% stock price decline does not have. Still, even though I bought in with no remorse, I have to admit that the move opens up questions about the management of CTL. Still, as a value stock practitioner in a market with very few value candidates, I had to go in on CTL for at least a few shares. Only time will tell if the apparent bargain was real.

JT

Stocks ended mixed after a slow session on Thursday, with the Dow Industrials and the New York Composite indexes ending with small losses, and the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Rut 2000 indexes finishing with small gains. If this seems like I copied my opening comments from yesterday, I guess that is because that is just what I did, since Thursday was effectively a repeat performance of Wednesday.

Asian markets ended mixed, or I should say, are trading mixed, as they are not yet done in this early morning hour. Japan, India, and Singapore are in the red, while Shanghai and Hong Kong are in the green. European markets are likewise trading mixed, with Britain and France in the green, while Germany, Italy, and Spain are in the red. U.S. futures are negative.

A number of notable economic releases are due out today, the Empire Manufacturing Index for February, Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization for December, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Index for January. Also of note, the G20 leaders are meeting in Moscow beginning today.

As for upgrades / downgrades, during the day yesterday, we had coverage initiated on Cisco (CSCO) at OutPerform, by UBS. Then, this morning, we have two more at this early hour:

Emerson Electric (EMR) was initiated at RBC Capital, with an OutPerform rating.

Heinz (HNZ) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman.

Earnings that have come out since my last posting are as follows:

Nestle (NSRGY) reported net income up 12% to 10.61B francs ($12B), above consensus of 10.4B francs. EPS was up12.2% to 3.33 francs, and underlying EPS was up 7.5% in constant currencies. Revenue was up 10.2% to 92.2B francs. The annual dividend was increased to 2.05 francs.

Alliant Energy (LNT) reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.64. Revenue was  $750.9M, missing by $52.86M.

PepsiCo (PEP) reported FQ3 EPS of $1.09, beating by three cents. Revenue was $19.95B, down 1% Y/Y, but still beating consensus estimates by $0.3B.

Waste Management (WM) reported Q4 EPS of $0.57, missing by three cents. Revenue was $3.43B, beating by $0.05B.

Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.69, beating by two cents. Revenue was $1.48B, up 9.9% Y/Y, beating by $0.41B.

Realty Income (O) reported Q4 Adjusted FFO of $0.55, beating by a penny. Revenue was $130.1M, up 16.4% Y/Y, beating by $5.2M.

National Health Investors (NHI) reported that Q4 Normalized FFO increased 9.0%, to $0.84 per share. Normalized FFO for the year was $3.18 per share.

The preceding reports all came out Thursday. Now, so far this morning, we have a few more:

American Electric (AEP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.50, beating by five cents. Revenue was $3.6B, up 0.2% Y/Y, beating by $0.05B.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) reported Q4 FFO of $1.19, beating by a penny. Revenue was $349.7M, up 29.2% Y/Y, yet still missing consensus by $1.17M. I will watch that one today. If it drops below $65, time to add shares to my position.

J.M. Smucker (SJM) reported FQ3 EPS of $1.47, beating by eight cents. Revenue was  $1.56B, up 6% Y/Y, beating by $0.B? That is what the blurb on Seeking Alpha says. Apparently a typo in condensing down the SJM report.

Kraft Foods (KRFT) reported Q4 EPS of $0.57. Revenue was $4.49B, down 10.7% Y/Y, missing by $0.26B. All of the consumer staples have been rallying since the news broke regarding the Buffet buyout of Heinz (HNZ).

Ventas (VTR) reported Q4 FFO of $0.99, beating by two cents. Revenue was $660.7M, beating by $15.99M.

As indicated in the pre-market, it was a down day for CenturyLink (CTL) yesterday, which ended the day closing down over nine dollars from the previous day’s close, finishing at $32.27. I ended up buying several small lots, as in very small, using my trading account, which only costs me $1.00 commission per trade. I didn’t want to miss it in case it dropped and then rebounded, so I bought early and often. That didn’t happen. I bought a little more on a couple of occasions when it appeared to be stabilizing, only to see the decline resume. Still, my average cost is pretty low, and I knew it might keep on going down, so I only bought small numbers of shares at each level. I ended up with about the same number of shares that I usually buy on an initial purchase, which under my incremental acquisition approach, still leaves room for buy downs later. I’ll hold off for a few days now, but I will add more if it really tanks in the next week or so. I believe the market is over-reacting to the news, and the situation is not as dire as the sell-off would imply. With a yield now at 6.7%, even after the cut, CTL is an attractive dividend stock, and I do believe the price will recover some over the next few months, although it won’t be a $40 stock again anytime soon.

JT    

Stocks ended mixed after a slow session on Wednesday, with the Dow Industrials and the New York Composite indexes ending with small losses, and the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Rut 2000 indexes finishing with small gains. Retail Sales came in about as expected, not great, but not terrible, either. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed as well, with Japan, Shanghai, and Hong Kong up, India and Singapore down. European markets are exhibiting no such indecision so far today, as they are all trading with losses, led by Spain, down over 1%.

The only economic release of significance today is the Weekly Unemployment data, due out at 8:30 AM. In fact, it has come out, showing a drop in claims of 27K, to 341K. U.S. futures are nevertheless negative at the moment, portending an open to the downside.

Upgrades downgrades out this AM are:

Heinz (HNZ) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank. This had to precede the buyout news, leaving the analysts at Deutsche Bank with a healthy serving of egg on their faces.

CenturyLink (CTL) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderPerform at Macquarie. CTL dropped a dividend cut bomb on their shareholders yesterday along with the earnings release. More on this in a moment.

CTL was also downgraded by Nomura, from neutral to Reduce.

Piling on, JP Morgan downgraded CTL from OverWeight to Neutral.

BioMed Realty (BMR) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Keybanc.  

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Medtronic (MDT) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Lazard Capital.

Entergy (ETR) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at UBS. That will teach you a lesson, don’t let the lights go out at the Super Bowl.

The headline news this morning is that Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital will acquire one of my stocks, Heinz (HNZ), which will then become a private company. HNZ shareholders will receive a nice 20% premium to the currently high price of $60.48, around $72.50 per share. So another stalwart dividend payer will be removed from the scene.

Yesterday, after the close, Cisco (CSCO) reported FQ2 EPS of $0.51, beating by three cents. Revenue was $12.10B, up 5% Y/Y, beating by $40M.

CenturyLink (CTL) reported Q4 EPS of $0.67, missing by a penny. Revenue was $4.58B, missing by $10M. Forward earnings guidance was guided down. But what really tanked the shares in the after-market trade was the announcement that the dividend would be lowered to $0.54 per share from $0.725 per share. The stock is down over $7 in pre-market-trading as I write this. At last, an opportunity. I sold CTL some time ago at $39 and change, expecting the cut that finally came. At the current price of $34.15 or lower, it now becomes a buy in my view, with a yield over 6%. I plan to start a position today, as soon as it stops going down. I will hold off buying too much. What often happens in a case like this is it will drop huge, rebound a bit, then drop more over the next few days. If that happens, I will buy more in a few days. This is a classic case of buy when others are selling. CTL actually needed to reduce the dividend.

JT

Stocks managed a modest rally on Tuesday, with all of the major averages posting gains, with the lone exception of the NASDAQ, which ended with a small loss. Overnight, Asian markets mostly registered gains, with the lone exception being Japan, which posted a loss slightly more than 1%.  European markets are all trading in the green at this hour. U.S. futures are currently positive.

Today, we have some potential market-moving economic releases coming out at 8:30 AM, Retail Sales, Import Prices, and Export Prices, all for the month of January. These readings will show how much the payroll tax hike has impacted consumer spending, and the trend of prices on goods being imported and exported. Also, Business Inventories will be released at 10:00 AM.

Several upgrades/ downgrades have come out this morning on my stocks:

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was initiated at CLSA with an UnderPerform rating.

Phillip Morris (PM) was upgraded from Reduce to Neutral at Nomura.

Heinz (HNZ) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS.

Several of my stocks have reported earnings since my last post. First, Tuesday, before the open:

Reynolds American (RAI) reported Q4 EPS of $0.76, beating by three cents. Revenue was $2.08B, beating by $0.02B.

Coca-Cola (KO) reported Q4 EPS of $0.45, beating by a penny. Revenue was $11.45B, up 4% Y/Y, missing by $0.1B.

HCP Inc. (HCP) reported Q4 FFO of $0.72, beating by a penny. Revenue was $508.5M, beating by $25.99M.

Diebold (DBD) reported Q4 EPS of $0.45 (non-GAAP), missing by three cents. GAPP earnings came in at a loss of twelve cents per share. Revenue was $840M, missing by $1.2M. The “misses” were per the original analysts’ consensus estimates. The results were actually right on target with the revised downward guidance issued by the company on 1/24/2013. 

Then, this morning, Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) reported Q4 EPS of $0.82, missing by three cents. Revenue was $1.48B, up 2% Y/Y, missing by $0.01B.

Today, after the bell, Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Century Link (CTL) are scheduled to report.

With some economic data coming out, and the State of the Union speech concluded, there may be a more active stock market today. Many pundits are predicting a correction, which is overdue, but no one is predicting a major decline, other than a few perma-bears. The problem is, the market never does what is commonly expected, and what most players are positioned for, so it just keeps on going up, to the dumbfounded consternation of the shorts. The continual rise will end someday, but when, no one can say. I certainly would not short this market, but I also would not buy at these prices, and I am increasingly reluctant to sell, even at ridiculously high prices, since I cannot say when I may be able to get back in. I can’t realize dividend income on stocks I have sold. My approach is to do very little, collect dividends, hold on to cash and await better buy prices, and only sell lower-tier holdings that I have long wanted to get rid of anyway. I am also cautious on covered calls, with just three calls outstanding at the moment: Procter & Gamble (PG) at $77.50, Emerson Electric (EMR) at $57.50, and Molson Coors (TAP) at $45.00.

A quote I like from the classic “Reminisces of a Stock Operator” is that “there is a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing”. Only one guess will be required to determine which of these three I think applies today.

JT

Stocks posted small declines Monday across all of the major averages, on a day which had minimal volatility, and anemic trade volume. Overnight, Asian markets posted strong gains across all five of the bourses I track, available from the home page of MarketWatch. European markets are likewise trading positive at this hour on the five country bourses shown on MarketWatch, as we are now about halfway through the European trading day. U.S. futures are flat. The only economic release scheduled for today is the Treasury Budget for January, due out at 2:00 PM. Tonight, the President will give his annual State of the Union address. Today may be a slow day on Wall Street, as the focus will be on Washington, as far as news flow is concerned. 

Several of my stocks have received upgrades / downgrades this morning:

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderPerform at Credit Suisse.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) was upgraded from Equal Weight to Over Weight at Evercore.

Walgreen (WAG) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Mizuho.

Smucker JM Co (SJM) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Bernstein.

Turning to earnings, yesterday, before the open, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (BWP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.38, beating by a penny. Revenue was $325.7M, up 8% Y/Y, missing by $16.04M.

Several of my stocks are due to report today. I will catch up with all earnings so far this week in my next posting. Time to get ready for the day’s action, anemic though it might be.

JT

As promised, I have completed the process of reworking my lists of recommended stocks, which are now available for viewing. As noted earlier, I have added back several high quality names that were (and still are) valued too high, in my opinion, but since that condition applies to just about everything these days, I saw no reason to exclude any stocks for that reason. I have increased my buy levels in a number of cases, bowing to reality, but even after that, most stocks are still too expensive to buy right now, assuming the goal is to not lose money. The few stocks that are not over-valued have issues, such as Diebold (DBD) and Exelon (EXC), to name a couple of examples. A couple of additional comments by stock grouping, or as I refer to it, by tier, are as follows:

Tier1 – Now consists of 52 stocks, the safest, strongest firms. If a market slide occurs, or even a new recession, these are the firms that are likely to hold up the best, and continue paying out dividends. Unfortunately, many of these firms are also the most severely overvalued, so they may decline in market value even more, percentage-wise, than the stock averages, if a sell-off ensues. Blue chips added back are Colgate Palmolive (CL), Coca Cola (KO), McDonalds (MCD), Altria (MO), JM Smuckers (SJM), United Parcel (UPS), and Wal-Mart (WMT). Also, one totally new stock was added, General Dynamics (GD), which should hold up even with defense cuts, as it is a significant player in cyber warfare and cyber security technologies.

Tier2 – Now consists of 41 stocks, which are generally very safe, but not as fortress-like as Tier1 stocks. Most REITs go here, and all MLPs, which are quite safe, but still subject to more risk than a blue-chip multinational corporation. I have added  Biomed Realty (BMR), Diebold (DBD), HCP Inc (HCP), Medtronic (MDT), and Spectra Energy LP (SEP). Diebold has stabilized since my article on the firm came out, so for now I relented and allowed DBD to be on the list. DBD is “on probation”, however, and it could have a very short membership in Tier2. Actually, all of my stocks are “on probation”, all of the time – so I guess DBD is on “double probation”, to distinguish it from the others. I also dropped Tate & Lyle PLC ADR (TATYY), due to extremely low trade volume and a dearth of information availability. I have not discovered anything wrong with the company, I just lost interest, I guess, if there has to be a reason for the drop.

Tier3 – Still consists of 27 names. These are high yield, and high risk. This is where I carry Business Development Companies (BDCs), Mortgage REITs (MREITs), smaller, less established MLP’s, Rural Telecoms,  and a couple of firms demoted from Tier2 that I still want to follow. In today’s market, I am lightening up on these holdings, taking gains where I have them, as these are the firms least likely to do well if the dark times return.

The stocks on all three of these lists are the stocks I will be tracking. Daily, I will scan for ex-dividend dates, earnings dates, and any news and / or useful information related to these stocks, and I will present any information I come across on my daily blog, published each market day before the open.

JT

Stocks popped up strongly right out of the gate Friday, and mostly held those gains throughout the day and into the close. For the week, the blue-chip Dow Industrials and S & P 500 indexes finished slightly below the previous Friday’s close, as did the small-cap Russell 2000 index, while the NASDAQ eked out a small gain on the week.

Overnight, Asian markets finished mixed, with Japan and India down, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore up. European markets are mixed as well at this hour, with Britain, Germany, and France up, Spain and Italy down. U.S. futures are positive, with about an hour and a half to go to the open. There are no economic releases today.

Only one upgrade / downgrade on my stocks to report this morning, as Buckeye Partners LP (BPL) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Citigroup. 

A number of my stocks will be going ex-dividend this week:

2/12/2013

Entergy (ETR), yield 5.15%.

2/13/2013

Chevron (CVX), yield 3.11%.

Emerson Electric (EMR), yield 2.85%.

3M Company (MMM), yield 2.47%.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), yield 4.97%.

Walgreen (WAG), yield 2.66%.

Smucker JM Co (SJM), yield 2.33%.

Spectra Energy (SE), yield 4.12%.

Fifth Street Finance (FSC), yield 10.60%. FSC paysmonthly.

Gladstone Investment Corp (GAIN), yield 8.03%. GAIN also pays monthly.

2/14/2013

ConocoPhillips (COP), yield 4.56%.

Exelon (EXC), yield 6.76%. As noted last week, this will be the last dividend at the current quarterly rate of $0.525 per share. Future dividends will be at a rate of $0.31 per share, resulting in a yield of only 4%, based upon Friday’s close of EXC at $31.08.

Eaton (ETN) is due to have a dividend announcement soon. A statement from the firm that the “Board will address the Q1 dividend at their meeting later this month”, combined with the recent report that 4^th Quarter Net Income declined 51%, and a downbeat Q1 view, is not very encouraging. I sold out of ETN when I had a nice gain, as I was nervous about the Cooper acquisition and debt. So far, selling out hasn’t been such a great move, but that may change if ETN falters in the commitment to the dividend.     

The current yields are unexciting in many cases, reflecting the fact that most solid, blue-chip dividend paying stocks are trading at or near their 52 week highs.

Turning to earnings, the line-up, as far as my stocks are concerned, is as follows:

2/11/2013

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), before market hours.

2/12/2013

Coca Cola (KO), before market hours.

Diebold (DBD), before market hours. The stock has recovered some since the bombshell announcement of an earnings warning and management shake-up on 1/24/2013. It will be interesting to see what the final tally is for 2012, what effect it has on the stock, and what the status is regarding the search for a new CEO.

HCP Inc (HCP), before market hours.

Reynolds American (RAI), before market hours.

2/13/2013

Cisco Systems (CSCO), after market hours.

Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS), before market hours.

Century Link (CTL), after market hours.

2/14/2013

Alliant Energy (LNT), before market hours.

Realty Income (O), before market hours.

Pepsico (PEP), before market hours.

Waste Management (WM), before market hours.

Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), before market hours.

2/15/2013

American Electric Power (AEP), before market hours.

Kraft Foods (KRFT), before market hours.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR), before market hours. The data center REIT has tumbled over seven dollars since the recent high of $72.92 reached on 1/28/2013. It will be interesting to see if the market (or some market players) knew something the rest of us did not know regarding the results to be reported.

National Health Investors (NJI), no time given.

Ventas Inc (VTR), before market hours.

I am in the process of reworking my lists of recommended stocks, and will hopefully complete the exercise today. As noted in earlier postings, I am adding back several high quality names that are valued too high, in my opinion, but since that condition applies to just about everything these days, I saw no reason to exclude any stocks for that reason. I am increasing my buy levels in a number of cases, bowing to reality. Still, in most cases, the stocks are too expensive to buy right now. The few stocks that are not over-valued have issues, such as Diebold (DBD) and Exelon (EXC), to name a couple of examples. I will post to this blog when the revised lists are available for viewing, and I will supply a few comments as well explaining some of the changes. One thing that has hit home as I rework the lists is the realization that stocks are higher in most cases since last summer, when I did a similar rework of the lists. And I thought stocks were over-valued even then! This is a time to be patient, and wait for better entry points.

JT

Stocks tumbled early and often on Thursday, such that by just before noon the Dow Industrials had a triple digit loss, and the other stock averages were down similarly, percentage-wise. The resilience of the market from that point on was surprising, as stocks gained back more than half of the early losses by the close, as a steady drive back up the scale unfolded throughout the afternoon. While still posting losses, the declines on the major averages were modest. The Dow Industrials declined 0.30%, the S & P 500 0.21%, and the NASDAQ only 0.11%.

Overnight, Asian markets, not quite done at this hour, are trading mixed. Japan and India are down, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore are up. European markets, at about the half-way point in the trading day, are all showing gains. U.S. futures are flat to slightly positive, with two hours to go until the start of trading.

The only economic releases scheduled for today are the December Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories, also for December. Neither release is likely to be market-moving.

Only two upgrades / downgrades have occurred on my stocks so far this morning: 

Annaly Capital (NLY) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Sterne Agee.

ENI S.p.A. (E) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Turning to earnings, two of my stocks reported before the open on Thursday:  

Exelon (EXC) reported Q4 EPS of $0.64, in-line with estimates. In the earnings presentation, the firm issued downside guidance for Q1, projecting EPS of $0.60-$0.70 vs. the $0.75 consensus estimate. Guidance for FY 2013 remained in-line, with EPS projected at $2.35-$2.65 vs. the $2.54 consensus. While the next dividend will be at the current quarterly rate of $0.525 per share, plans after that are to cut the dividend to $0.31 per share, a move that has been widely expected. Management stated that the change is required to allow the firm to maintain its investment-grade rating. The yield, currently around 6.5% annualized, will drop to around 4.0%. Reflecting that the change was expected, the shares actually moved up on the news, closing up $0.39 on the day, to $31.37, which is not what usually happens when a dividend cut is announced.  

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) reported Q4 FFO of $0.25, in-line with estimates.  Revenue was $57.4M, missing by $1.27M.

After the close, a couple more of my stocks reported:

American Capital Agency (AGNC) reported Q4 EPS of $2.37, which the firm said may not be comparable to estimates of $0.94. The company reported comprehensive income of $0.36/share, which is defined as net income per share, $2.37, less unrealized mark-to-market losses, $2.02. The net spread income per share was $0.89. Net book value came in at $31.64 per common share.

Prospect Capital (PSEC) reported FQ2 EPS of $0.51, beating by nine cents.

This morning, Entergy (ETR) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.72, beating by a penny.  Revenue was $2.43B, down 2.1% Y/Y.

Kraft Foods (KRFT), originally expected to report this week, is now set to release earnings on 2/15/2013.

Today is likely to be a slow day on Wall Street, as a potential record-breaking snowstorm is getting ready to hit the region. Better there than here, in chilly but clear Oklahoma.

JT

Wednesday saw US stocks drop at the open, battle back by noon, drop again, and battle back again by the close. The end result was that small gains were posted on all of the major indexes, with the exception of the NASDAQ, which posted a small decline. Overnight, Asian markets all posted declines. European markets are mostly trading in the green at this hour, with Britain being an exception, showing a small decline. U.S. futures are positive, as investors await the weekly reading on Claims for Unemployment, due out at 8:30 AM. Also at that time, Productivity and Unit Labor Cost data for Q4 will be released.

There are only a couple of upgrades / downgrades to report this morning on my stocks:

Pfizer (PFE) had coverage reinstated at Credit Suisse, with a Neutral rating.  

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderPerform at Credit Suisse.

Moving on to earnings, more of my stocks have reported since yesterday’s posting. First, reporting yesterday, we have two companies:

Annaly Capital (NLY) reported Q4 earnings of $0.46, beating by eleven cents. Book value per share was reported as $15.86.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) reported Q4 EPS of $0.69, missing by six cents.   Revenue was $9.44B, up 6.2% Y/Y, missing by $1.35B.

Then, so far this morning, a couple or three more firms on my lists have reported:

Vodafone reported that FQ3 revenues were down 2% to £11.39B vs. consensus £11.29B. Profit figures were not provided.

Sanofi (SNY) reported that Q4 net profit was down 24% to €1.57B vs. consensus of €1.54B. Sales were up 0.2% to €8.53B vs. €8.56B expected.

Statoil (STO) reported that Q4 net profit was down 49%  to 12.98B Norwegian kroner ($2.36B), or 4.07 kroner per share. The consensus had been 11.94B kroner. Revenues were down 12% to 160.6B kroner vs. 164.22B expected. The annual dividend, yet to be approved, was proposed to be 6.75 kroner per share.

Time to get ready for the open. At this point, stocks are too high to buy, but I am reluctant to sell, since there are minimal opportunities for new money to invest. Many pundits are predicting a near-term decline, which would not surprise me in the least. While it is always painful to see the brokerage account balances go down, it is what is needed to provide buy opportunities, and eventually have a chance of making money, by acquiring good stocks at lower prices.

JT

The see-saw ride continued Tuesday, as stocks rebounded decisively, regaining most of the ground ceded in the prior session. Overnight, Asian markets finished mostly in the green, with India being the only laggard, posting a small loss. European markets, however, are trading with significant losses, as a major Italian bank is reportedly preparing to report significant derivative losses. Only Britain is trading above the flat line, and just barely. U.S. futures are predicting the markets here will open on a down note.

None of my stocks have received any upgrades / downgrades so far today.

A number of my stocks reported earnings Tuesday:

Emerson (EMR) reported Q4 EPS of $0.62, in-line with estimates. Revenue was $5.6B, up 5% Y/Y, beating by $0.17B.

Eaton (ETN) reported Q4 EPS of $0.82, missing by ten cents. Revenue was $4.3B, up 7% Y/Y, beating by $0.05B.

Spectra Energy (SE) reported Q4 EPS of $0.32, in-line with estimates. Revenue was $1.35B, missing by $0.05B.

Inergy (NRGY) reported Q4 EPS of $0.01, missing by four cents. Revenue was $438.6M, beating by $63.02M.

Kellogg (K) reported Q4 EPS of $0.67, in-line with estimates. Revenue was $3.6B, up 18.2% Y/Y, beating by $0.16B.

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.40, beating by three cents. Revenue was $59M, missing by $1.62M.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.69, beating by two cents. Revenue was $503.2M, missing by $2.06M.

Kimco Realty (KIM) reported Q4 FFO of $0.33, beating by a penny. Revenue was $239.5M, beating by $12.26M.

This morning, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) reported Q4 core EPS of 32.6 pence, beating by 1.3 pence. Revenues were £6.80B, down 3% Y/Y, missing by £80M.

Also this morning, Diebold (DBD) declared a dividend of  $0.2875 per share, representing a 1% increase. DBD pays quarterly, and the new annualized yield is now up to 3.93%. The ex-dividend date is 2/20/2013. While the firm is undergoing some stress just now, the dividend increase is a positive signal for holders to be patient.

Time to get ready for the day’s action.

JT

So much for the question, will the Dow Industrials hold 14000. Monday answered that question with a resounding NO, for one day at least. As an uninspiring read on Factory Orders and renewed European concerns dominated the news flow, all of the averages declined, as the most significant one-day sell off of 2013 occurred. Overnight, Asian markets likewise mostly declined, with only Shanghai managing a small gain. By contrast, European markets are all trading with gains at this hour. U.S. futures are positive, indicating a rebound may be in store today.

The only economic release scheduled for today is the ISM Services Index for January, due out at 10:00 AM. This week is a slow week overall for economic data.  

Yesterday, after I posted, Norfolk Southern (NSC) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Dahlman Rose. Also, Merck (MRK) was downgraded to UnderWeight by Morgan Stanley, and also by Leerink Swann, to Market Perform, as concerns were noted regarding its cholesterol drug Vytorin, and increased competition threatening other drugs.

So far today, only one upgrade / downgrade has come out on my stocks, as CenturyLink (CTL) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Macquarie.

Two of my stocks reported earnings yesterday, as anticipated:

Sysco (SYY) reported FQ2 EPS of $0.4, in-line with estimates. Revenue was $10.8B, up 5.4% Y/Y, beating by $0.11B.

Mercury General (MCY) reported Q4 EPS of a negative $0.32. Revenue was $681.2M, missing by $14.39M.

A number of my stocks are slated to report today, as per Monday’s post. I will catch these up in my next posting, time to publish and get ready for today’s action.

JT

So much for the thinking that the stock rally may be running out of steam. Stocks staged a major rebound on Friday, starting the month of February off with a bang. While the Payroll numbers were actually a bit below expectations, the upward revisions in prior month tallies made up for that. Further, we had stronger than expected readings on sentiment, via the monthly University of Michigan poll, and on business activity, per the ISM survey of corporate purchasing managers. Strong auto sales reports trickling in throughout the day also juiced the rally.

Overnight, Asian stocks, not quite done at this early hour, look to finish mixed, with Japan, Shanghai, and Singapore up, Hong Kong and India down. European markets, at the half-way mark, are all trading in the red at this moment. U.S. futures are slightly negative, indicating the market will open on a down note here.   

Several of my stocks have received upgrades / downgrades in the early going this morning:

Chevron (CVX) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS.

Wal-Mart (WMT) was downgraded from OverWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Statoil (STO) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Vodafone (VOD) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup. 

A few of my stocks will be going ex-dividend this week:

2/5/2013  

Intel (INTC), yield 4.21%.

Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), yield 4.98%.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), yield 7.60%.

Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP), yield 5.71%.

Inergy LP (NRGY), yield 5.73%.

2/6/2013

American Electric Power (AEP), yield 4.16%.

Unilever PLC ADP (UL), yield 3.06%.

PVR Partners LP (PVR), yield 8.28%.

Exterran Partners LP (EXLP), yield 8.64%.

QR Energy LP (QRE), yield 10.54%.

2/7/2013

BreitBurn Energy Partners LP (BBEP), yield 8.83%.

Earnings season is still going strong. First, NuStar Energy reported on Friday after my posting. Results for NS were Q4 EPS of $0.25, missing by seven cents. Revenue was $984.7M, beating by $183.48. There was nothing really new in the earnings call, just a restatement of known facts and plans. While DCF is less than the current distribution, the latter is being maintained, and the plan is still to eventually increase DCF enough to cover distributions, as new projects are completed and contribute to revenues.

Tentative expected earnings reports this week on stocks I follow are:

2/4/2013 

Mercury General Corp (MCY), before the open.

Sysco Corp (SYY), before the open.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY), after the close.

2/5/2013

Eaton Corp (ETN), before the open.

Emerson Electric (EMR), before the open.

Inergy LP (NRGY), before the open.

Kellogg Co (K), before the open.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), before the open.

Spectra Energy (SE), before the open.

Spectra Energy Partners LP (SRE), before the open.

Kimco Realty (KIM), after the close.

American Electric Power (AEP), before the open. We finally get a date for the report from AEP.

2/6/2013 

Kraft Foods Group (KRFT), before the open.

Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), after the close.

2/7/2013 

Exelon (EXC), before the open.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW), before the open.

American Capital Agency (AGNC), after the close.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), after the close.

2/8/2013 

Entergy (ETR), before the open.

Another busy week, staring us in the face. The burning question is, will the market hold the 14000 level on the Dow Industrials, or will there be a pull-back? We will soon know.

JT

Stocks fell again on Thursday, but not by a lot. Still, it was the first occurrence of consecutive declines since January 7 and January 8, and suggests the rally that has been ongoing since the middle of November may be running out of steam.

Overnight, the Nikkei, Shanghai, and Singapore indexes ended with gains, while the Hang Seng and Sensex indexes finished with losses. European bourses are trading mixed as well at this hour, with the FTSE 100, Dax, and CAC 40 indexes up, and the FTSE MIB and IBEX 35 indexes down. U.S. futures are positive at the moment, but that may change as we await the monthly Payroll numbers, due out a 8:30 AM.

I have three upgrades / downgrades to report on my stocks this morning:

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Verizon (VZ) was upgrade from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Jaffray.

Several companies I follow reported earnings before the open Thursday:   

United Parcel (UPS) reported Q4 EPS of $1.32, missing by five cents. Revenue of $14.57B beat by $0.13. Hurricane Sandy affected these results, more than analysts had expected.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) reported Q4 EPS of $1.41, beating by a penny. Revenue was $4.29B, up 2.5% Y/Y, missing by $0.02B.

Altria (MO) reported Q4 EPS of $0.55, beating by a penny. Revenue was $6.24B, up 1.8% Y/Y, beating by $1.91B.

Enterprise Products reported Q4 EPS of $0.68, beating by three cents. Revenue was $11.0B, missing by $0.93B.

AmeriGas Partners (APU) reported FQ1 EPS of $0.93, missing by a penny. Revenue of $876.6M beat by $133.4M.

A couple of additional reports have come out this morning:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported Q4 EPS of $2.2, beating by $0.21. Revenue was $115.17B, missing by $0.05B.

Chevron (CVX) reported Q4 EPS of $3.70, beating by $0.65. Revenue was $60.5B, up 0.9% Y/Y, missing by $6.31B.

Merck (MRK) reported Q4 EPS of $0.83, beating by a penny. Revenue was $11.73B, beating by $0.27B.

Earnings expected this week but not received are:

NuStar (NS), expected Thursday, announced a delay to today. So far, an announcement has not come out.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW), expected Wednesday, announced that the release would occur on 2/7/2013.

American Electric Power (AEP), expected Monday, has not announced when earnings will be reported. The company website has no information on this. I checked, and for the last five years, earnings have been reported on January 27, 28, or 29. At this point, I have no idea when AEP will report. Their website has no events calendar, and nothing that I can find that would tell me when to expect the report.

Time to see what the Payroll report contains.

JT