JT’s DAILY (WEEKLY as of 12/9/2013) BLOG for Month Of March 2018

Note: All previous month's posts are available in the archives, as noted above. 

All postings for the month are available here, sorted in descending order - i.e. most recent at the top.

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 03/26/2018

Posted Sunday 03/25/2018 07:00 PM

Stocks resumed their decline last week, with a couple of one-day drops reminiscent of the financial crisis of 2008, at least in terms of point declines. Since the averages, particularly the Dow Industrials, are at much higher levels, the percentage declines are not as much as in 2008. But it is scary enough for most people, especially newbies who haven’t experienced this type of volatility.

Dividends hitting the account certainly can help ease the pain. Following are stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week.

Apollo Investment (AINV), 3/26/2018, yield 10.70%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 3/28/2018, yield 11.51%. AGNC pays monthly.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY), 3/28/2018, yield 11.37%.

Enerplus (ERF), 3/28/2018, yield 0.80%. ERF pays monthly, same as when it was a Canadian Trust. Unfortunately, that is the only thing regarding ERF’s dividend that is the same as those high payout days.

National Health Investors (NHI), 3/28/2018, yield 5.96%.

Nucor (NUE), 3/28/2018, yield 2.49%.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 3/28/2018, yield 10.65%. PSEC is a monthly payer.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 3/28/2018, yield 6.01%. STAG also pays monthly.

Ventas (VTR), 3/29/2018, yield 6.41%.

Realty Income (O), 3/29/2018, yield 5.28%. O is famously known as “the monthly dividend company”.

Kimco Realty (KIM), 4/02/2018, yield 7.89%.

All 4 stocks listed last week as scheduled to report did so as expected. See last week’s posting for the names and dates. Rather than repeat here information that is abundantly available elsewhere, I point the reader desiring specifics to the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. In many cases a transcript of the earnings teleconference with analysts is available on Seeking Alpha.

Only one of my stocks is scheduled to report this week, Paychex (PAYX) on 3/26/2018.

A roundup of analyst ratings coming out last week on my stocks is as follows. As always, I list these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.   

DrPepper Snapple (DPS) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Amerigas Partners L P (APU) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderWeight at JP Morgan.  

ONEOK (OKE) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

Nucor (NUE) was initiated at Buy at Goldman.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was initiated at Buy at Goldman.

HCP Inc (HCP) was reiterated at Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) was reiterated at UnderPerform at Wells Fargo.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

General Mills (GIS) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Societe Generale, and reiterated at Hold at Stifel.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. The highest-yielding drug company continues to pay out handsomely, but with all the turmoil in health care and excessive government involvement, one wonders for how much longer. That is why I sold my GSK some time ago, which thus far has seemed to be a mistake.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Societe Generale.

Sanofi (SNY) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Liberium.

Unilever (UL, UN) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus.

General Mills (GIS) was upgraded from Neutral to Positive at Susquehanna. I believe the “Cheerios Kid” won’t go under as long as the “Boomers” remain a sizeable component of the population.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. Yielding over 12%, BPL is on my radar, as much as I don’t relish adding to my energy exposure, especially MLPs.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel. DRI has defied gravity for so long I hesitate to predict it’s demise, but it may be coming, as DRI declined nearly 10 points over two days last week, following a disappointing forecast.

There certainly are some bargains available, at least based on yield, in today’s market, if one has the fortitude to increase exposure to REITs, BDCs, or Oil & Gas, particularly MLPs. Other than that, while the general decline has knocked prices down a bit, there aren’t many stocks selling at “fire sale” prices. I added to my new MLP holding Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) at $16.50 last week, and I’m considering starting a new position in Buckeye (BPL). But I’m holding steady with a larger-than-usual cash position, just in case the recent decline is only the start of something much more serious. At this point, anything is possible. Of course, that has always been true about the stock market, as long-time players know, and newbies are finding out.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 03/19/2018

Posted Sunday 03/18/2018 05:00 AM

After a big upsurge the previous Friday, last week saw stocks decline three days in a row, then regain some, but not all, of the lost ground by the end of the week. The venerable Dow Industrials Index ended the week below 25000 once again, continuing the pattern  which has been ongoing since the first of the year of gyrating above and below that milestone marker.

In volatile times like this, solid, steady dividends can go a long way to ease market anxiety. Stocks on my lists scheduled to go ex-dividend next week are as follows, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated. Frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 3/19/2018, yield 7.57%. GAIN is a monthly payer.

DrPepper Snapple (DPS), 3/20/2018, yield 1.98%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 3/20/2018, yield 6.20%. MAIN also pays monthly.

Solar Capital (SLRC), 3/21/2018, yield 8.00%.

Phillip Morris (PM), 3/21/2018, yield 4.08%.

Apollo Investment (AINV), 3/26/2018, yield 11.0%.

Last week I missed BlackRock Capital Investment (BKCC), which went ex-dividend 3/16/2018. BKCC yields 13.02%.

Four of my stocks will be reporting earnings next week. All are firms which report outside of the normal quarterly “earnings season” window.  Reporting 3/21/2018 are staples bellwether General Mills (GIS) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), a mining stock. On 3/22/2018 Conagra Brands (CAG) will report, as will Darden Restaurants (DRI).  

Upgrades / downgrades reported last week on my stocks are as listed following. Note that I list these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.   

Newmont Mining (NEM) was downgraded from Sector Perform to UnderPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Barrick Gold (ABX) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Digital Realty (DLR) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Merck (MRK) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Leerink Partners.

AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) were both initiated at Buy at Guggenheim.

CenturyLink (CTL) and Consolidated Communications (CNSL) were both initiated at Neutral at Guggenheim.

Windsream (WIN) and Frontier Communications (FTR) were both initiated at Sell at Guggenheim.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was reiterated at Neutral at JP Morgan.

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP), NuStar Energy L P (NS), and Valero Energy (VLO) were all reiterated at Neutral at JP Morgan.

General Electric (GE) was reiterated at UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

Greif (GEF) was reiterated at Buy at JP Morgan.

Total S A (TOT) was upgraded to OverWeight at Barclays.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was reiterated at OverWeight at JP Morgan.  

Noble Corp PLC (NE) was upgraded to Buy at Argus.

DrPepper Snapple (DPS) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel.

ExxonMobil (XOM) was upgraded from Reduce to Buy at HSBC Securities.

Barrick Gold (ABX) was reiterated at Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was reiterated at Sell at Loop Capital, and at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was reiterated at Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Waste Management (WM) was initiated at Neutral at UBS.

RPM International (RPM) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was reiterated at Buy at Citigroup.

I continued to add to positions last week, buying BlackRock Capital (BKCC) at $5.85, Monroe Capital (MRCC) at $12.95, both relatively risky BDCs, and Cohen & Steers Global Income Builder (INB) and Miller Howard High Income Equity (HIE), both high-yielding CEFs. The prior week I started new positions in Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) and STAG Industrial (STAG), plus added to positions in Iron Mountain (IRM) and American Midstream Partners  L P (AMID). I guess you could say I’m in a “risk on’ mood, as none of these stocks are in my Tier1 “safest, strongest” group. On the other hand, all of these stocks offer outstanding yields, and represent amazing value if they can maintain their payouts. And if they can’t, you know how the story ends, just look at Windstream Holdings (WIN) and Frontier Communications (FTR), with no dividends and collapsed stock prices, for examples.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 03/12/2018

Posted Sunday 03/11/2018 08:30 PM

Stocks gained on Monday, meandered up and down Tuesday through Thursday, then finished the week with a huge surge on Friday, thanks to a very positive monthly Jobs report. The economy continues to show improvement, much to the consternation of the Dems, who it seems are rooting for whoever is in opposition to the United States.

Stocks on my lists scheduled to go ex-dividend next week are as follows, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated. Frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Triangle Capital (TCAP), 3/13/2018, 9.93%.

Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE), 3/14/2018, 4.59%.

Digital Realty (DLR), 3/14/2018, 3.90%.

Ares Capital (ARCC), 3/14/2018, 9.60%.

Coca Cola (KO), 3/14/2018, 3.51%.

Iron Mountain (IRM), 3/14/2018, 7.18%.

Merck (MRK), 3/14/2018, 3.51%.

Altria (MO), 3/14/2018, 4.28%.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW), 3/14/2018, 7.70%.

Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), 3/14/2018, 7.51%. OCSL acquired Fifth Street Finance (FSC), which had fallen upon hard times. FSC holders received shares of OCSL as a consequence of FSC’s demise. 

TICC Capital (TICC), 3/15/2018, 12.59%.

Monroe Capital (MRCC), 3/15/2018, 10.95%.

Total S A (TOT), 3/15/2018, 4.93%.

Crown Castle International (CCI), 3/15/2018, 3.81%.

Roche Holdings LTD (RHHBY), 3/15/2018, 3.42%. This is an annual dividend.

Greif (GEF), 3/16/2018, 3.18%.

PennantPark Investment (PNNT), 3/16/2018, 10.14%.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 3/16/2018, 11.23%. HRZN is a monthly payer.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 3/19/2018, 7.54%. GAIN pays monthly. 

BlackRock Capital (BKCC) was the only stock on my lists reporting last week. BKCC reported as scheduled 3/7/2018, presenting positive results. None of my stocks are scheduled to report in the upcoming week.

Moving on to upgrades/downgrades, I observed the following ratings on stocks I follow. My usual admonition applies, which is that I list these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.   

Kimco Realty (KIM) was downgraded from Inline to UnderPerform at Evercore ISI.

McDonalds was reiterated at Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) was reiterated at OverWeight at JP Morgan.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Wedbush.

Spectra Energy Partners L P (SEP) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel.

McDonalds (MCD) was reiterated at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Vodafone (VOD) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Exane BNP Paribus.

Valero (VLO) was resumed at Neutral at Credit Suisse.

 Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Compass Point.

HCP Inc (HCP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Eaton (ETN) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.         

ExxonMobil (XOM) was reiterated at Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Intel (INTC) was reiterated at Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Williams Partners L P (WPZ) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

The volatility we have experienced since the last week of January 2018 has yielded some attractive prices in depressed sectors, such as REITs, Energy Partnerships (MLPs), and Business Development Companies (BDCs), but if you are already over-weighted in those sectors, it is hard to get too excited about buying even more. I did start a new position in Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) last week, with my initial buy at $17.75. ETP tanked to barely above $15 back in November 2017, but by the time I had noticed, it had rebounded to around $20. I vowed to get in if it dropped back below $18, which it did last week. I’m really not too eager to buy more oil and gas partnerships, but a double-digit yield that seems sustainable is too good to pass up. That’s where I’m at, not really shopping in those sectors, but willing to add just a little more if an extreme value entry is available.

JT

1st Posting for Week Beginning Monday 03/05/2018

Posted Monday 03/05/2018 02:30 AM

Stocks gained on Monday of last week, then declined every day the remainder of the week. The cause was purported to be concerns over international trade after the Trump administration announced tariffs would be imposed on certain imports.

Stocks on my lists scheduled to go ex-dividend next week are as follows, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated. Frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

PotlatchDeltic (PCH), 3/6/2018, 3.18%.

Novartis (NVS), 3/6/2018, 3.30%. This is an annual dividend.

Newmont Mining (NEM). 3/7/2018, 0.88%. The stock price has recovered well since being under $20 at the beginning of 2016, but the dividend has not been restored.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), 3/7/2018, 3.73%.

Waste Management (WM), 3/8/2018, 3.18%.

Walmart (WMT), 3/8/2018, 2.33%.

Kimberly Clark (KMB), 3/8/2018, 3.59%.

Eaton (ETN), 3/9/2018, 3.32%.

SCANA (SCG), 3/9/2018, 6.16%.

No mouth-watering yields in this bunch, although utility SCG comes close. 3%or so is what you get at best from a solid firm in normal times. Anytime the yield exceeds 5%, you can usually assume you are dealing with distressed merchandise.

 All 8 stocks listed last week as scheduled to report did so as expected. See last week’s posting for the names and dates. Rather than repeat here information that is abundantly available elsewhere, I point the reader desiring specifics to the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. In many cases a transcript of the earnings teleconference with analysts is available on Seeking Alpha.

Frontier Communications (FTR) finally through in the towel last week, with yet another disappointing report, by eliminating the dividend entirely. FTR is a poster child for what can happen when you own a high-yielding stock in a declining business. I have held FTR since 2007 (when it was Citizens Communications), and even after over $600 in cumulative dividends received, I end up with a capital loss overall. The key to owning a high-yielder is to collect enough to end up well over-all after the inevitable dividend cut or elimination. Many of my high-yield holdings have achieved this status, but FTR never did. Needless to say, FTR goes on to my Tier4 list, lost causes, not recommended.

As for the week coming up, only one firm I track is scheduled to report, BlackRock Capital Investment (BKCC) on 3/7/2018.

Moving on to upgrades/downgrades, I observed the following ratings on stocks I follow. My usual admonition applies, which is that I list these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.   

Duke Energy (DUK) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Loop Capital.

General Mills (GIS) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Societe Generale.

Eni S p A (E) was downgraded from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Walmart (WMT) was initiated at Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was reiterated at OverWeight at Morgan Stanley.

Entergy (ETR) was reiterated at Buy at Guggenheim.

General Electric (GE) was reiterated at Market Perform at Cowen.

Intel (INTC) was reiterated at Buy at Nomura.

General Dynamics (GD) was reiterated At OutPerform at Cowen.

Walmart was reiterated at Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Barrick Gold (ABX) was downgraded to Hold at Argus.

Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) was reiterated at Buy at B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Kellogg (K) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Jaffray.

Eaton (ETN) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was reiterated at Neutral at Citigroup.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was reiterated at Buy at B. Riley FBR, Inc.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was reiterated at OutPerform at Cowen.

Phillip Morris (PM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

Frontier Communications was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at MoffettNathanson.

Procter & Gamble (PG) was initiated at Sell at Berenberg.

Market volatility has returned, and with all the controversies swirling around in our politics, it seems it will be with us for the foreseeable future. I did make a few acquisitions over the past few days, either adding to existing positions at a lower price, or starting new positions at a price below where I sold out during the run-up. Adds were American Midstream Partners L P (AMID) at $11.90, and Iron Mountain (IRM) at $31, while new buys were STAG Industrial (STAG) at $23.54, and Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) at $19.75. I’m making selective buys, building positions incrementally, at attractive prices, at least when compared to prices the past several months. This is not a time to “buy with both hands”. Caution and restraint are more descriptive of my acquisition strategy than aggressive and eager.

JT