Stocks posted gains on all the major averages last week, as substantial rallies on Tuesday and Wednesday outweighed minor declines on Monday and Thursday, and Friday ended quietly with a modest advance. The crude oil WTI benchmark held steady just below $50, a level which appears to be presenting resistance to further advances.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are as follows, by date:

6/01/2016

Waste Management (WM), yield 2.68%.

Pepsico (PEP), yield 2.95%.

Total S A (TOT), yield 5.52%. Note that the yield is before foreign tax withholding of 30%.

Ensco (ESV), yield 0.42%. A quarterly dividend of one cent per share seems like it is not worth the bother, but it keeps the dividend mechanics in working order in case things improve enough to see the dividend increased later on.

6/02/2016

McDonalds (MCD), yield 2.88%.

Northrop Grumman (NOC), yield 1.68%.

Iron Mountain (IRM), yield 5.27%.

Ventas (VTR), yield 4.42%.

Molson Coors (TAP), yield 1.65%.

I can’t help but notice that the yields on most stocks are woefully anemic. A 3% yield is high these days for anything other than a REIT, BDC, Telecom, or highly-stressed firm with a dim outlook, at least as far as the market is concerned. Iron Mountain (IRM) is an example, as the firm’s bread-and-butter business, document storage and destruction, is seen as a no-growth business, with revenues declining. My take is that the company will be around for a long while, as the “paperless” office has yet to become the norm. Plus, the firm is expanding aggressively into the IT data center business, although a minus is the debt it is taking on to fund that effort.

The only stock on my lists reporting last week was Tier4 (stocks no longer recommended) holding Seadrill (SDRL), a one-time high dividend payer now just trying to survive. As per the report, the company is doing about all that can be done to ride out the oil price collapse. It remains to be seen whether it will be enough. For details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha.

As for the week upcoming, the only firm on my lists scheduled to report is Medtronic (MDT), on 5/31/2016. MDT is a highly-regarded stock, as evidenced by the minimal yield of 1.87%. At one time, I usually dropped firms from my lists yielding less than 3%, and certainly any yielding less than 2%. I may yet give up on several one-time decent payers, as it seems more and more likely that they will never again sport a respectable yield, but for now I will just keep the lists “as is”.

Upgrades / downgrades out last week on my stocks were as follows:

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) was upgraded to Buy at Goldman.

Fifth Street Finance (FSC) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Maxim Group.

General Mills (GIS) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at Goldman. Apparently the analysts at Goldman are not fond of Cheerios.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) was initiated at Buy at Sun Trust Bank.

Statoil (STO) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

Smucker J M Co (SJM) was initiated at Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

McDonalds (MCD) was assumed at Market Perform at Bernstein.

Amerigas Partners LP (APU) was assumed at Buy at Janney Capital.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was initiated at Market Perform at Bernstein.

The week ahead should be a quiet one for stocks, as we move into the summer. The news cycles will most likely be dominated by politics, as the final primaries occur. In fact, the news will remain dominated by politics for a long time, as we next have the conventions, followed by the general election. It looks to be an “interesting” time. As for investing, now is a good time to lay low and conserve cash, awaiting better opportunities, which some say may be coming soon.

JT 

Last week, stocks rose on Monday, gave it back on Tuesday, then meandered around the flat line the rest of the week to end up just slightly ahead of the prior week’s final readings. None of the economic releases out last week had much effect, as they were mostly about what had been expected. After disappointing reports from retailers the prior week, Wal-Mart (WMT), Lowes (LOW), and Home Depot (HD) all surprised to the upside to lift the market out of its retail-imposed funk, which halted the market decline of the last few weeks, at least for the moment. Retailers Target (TGT) and Ross Stores (ROST) lagged the leaders a bit, but not enough to kill the retail recovery rally.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are as follows, listed by date, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated:

5/25/2015

Enerplus (ERF), 1.87%. ERF pays one cent CAN monthly, which at today’s US-CAN dollar exchange rate, results in about $.007 US per share. The one-time “grand-daddy” of the Canadian Trusts, a $50 plus stock yielding in the high single digits, has fallen far from those glory days.

5/26/2015

Century Link (CTL), 8.02%.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 6.83%. STAG pays monthly.

NextEra Energy (NEE), 2.94%.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 13.46%. PSEC pays monthly. Some pundits are predicting a dividend cut is imminent, which is often the case with stocks featuring double-digit yields.

American Capital Agency (AGNC), 12.86%. AGNC also pays monthly.

5/27/2015

Realty Income (O), 4.04%. O, known as “the monthly dividend company”, obviously pays monthly.

Kellogg (K), 2.66%.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 4.78%.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was the star of the week’s earnings reports, beating on EPS and revenue, and following with upbeat guidance. The stock rose over $5.00 on the news, and sparked the retail turn-around rally. The three other stocks on my lists that were slated to report, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Apollo Investment (AINV), and Gladstone Investment (GAIN) also reported as scheduled. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. Transcripts of earnings conference calls are available on Seeking Alpha for most firms.

As for this week, the spotlight will be on Seadrill Limited (SDRL), at least as far as earnings on my stocks is concerned. SDRL is set to report on 5/26/2016. Recent announcements from SDRL were not encouraging. First, it was announced that Exxon Mobil (XOM) was terminating a drillship charter, choosing to pay a $125M cancellation fee rather than keeping the rig working. Then, it was announced that SDRL had executed a deal to issue 8.18M new common shares to be exchanged for $55M in senior notes to be retired. While any debt relief is certainly a positive in these trying times, exchanging debt for new issues of equity certainly does dilute the existing holders.

Upgrades / downgrades on my stocks coming out last week were as follows:

Freeport-McMoran (FCX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries,

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Jaffray.

Intel (INTC) was initiated at UnderPerform at Credit Agricole.

ExxonMobil (XOM) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus.

ONEOK Partners LP (OKS) was downgraded to Hold at US Capital Advisors.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Freeport-McMoran (FCX) was initiated at Neutral at Goldman.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was initiated at OutPerform at CLSA.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was initiated at Sell at Standpoint Research, presumably because of valuation.

Apollo Investment (AINV) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at BB&T Capital Markets, and from OutPerform to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Well, the second of my oil & gas production partnerships in as many weeks bit the dust last week, as Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP) declared bankruptcy on 5/16/2016. While not really unexpected, it did not seem imminent before this week. When the oil price crash really got underway around mid-2015, the thinking was that it would moderate after a few months, and both BBEP and Linn Energy LLC (LINE), with the hedges they had in place and decent cash flows, could ride out the storm. The worst that could happen might be a suspension of distributions for a few quarters. But, in addition to the oil price crash being more severe and longer-lasting than anyone ever imagined, both firms’ assets were not worth what they were valued at on the balance sheet in the post-oil crash market. The lenders weren’t fooled, and bankruptcy protection became necessary sooner rather than later in both cases. So, in retrospect, these were two speculations that ended badly. While I didn’t lose a whole lot, waiting to buy in until after the stocks had dropped into the single-digits, it still hurts. All I can say is I’m glad I resisted the urge when they first began to falter, and waited until it would either be a triple or more or a total loss, in which case it would not be all that much. Knowing what I know now, obviously it was a bad bet. But based on the history of the last ten years, it seemed a reasonable speculation at the time. And that’s when the speculator must place his wager – how it seems at the time, the history, and the odds, based on all you know and have experienced. I speculated on four energy production partnerships trading at dramatically lower levels, spreading my gambling cash more or less equally among the four candidates: BBEP and LINE, the two afore-mentioned firms, and Memorial Production Partners (MEMP), and Legacy Reserves LP (LGCY). These two latter names seem to be hanging tough for the moment, and have at least a possibility of avoiding bankruptcy. Of course, it really depends upon the future of oil and natural gas prices. These may in a few years recover enough to make up for the losses in BBEP and LINE, or they may follow them into the bankruptcy abyss. Only time will tell. The whole exercise is a great object lesson reminding me why I don’t speculate much, and only with funds I can lose without damaging anything other than my trader’s ego. So, to quote my favorite TV ad, stay cool, reflect, and “stay thirsty, my friends”.

JT

Stocks declined over the week just ended, as disappointing reports from several retailers seemed to confirm the stalling economy hinted at by recent economic readings. Crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, has held in the mid forty range, giving some hope that the worst of the decline is over. Even if so, oil in this range won’t be enough for some embattled producers to survive.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are as follows, listed by date, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated:

05/16/2016

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), 1.80%.

05/17/2016

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 11.11%. GAIN pays monthly.

MicroSoft (MSFT), 2.80%.

Chevron (CVX), 4.19%.

ConocoPhillips (COP), 2.29%.

05/18/2016

3M Co (MMM), 2.61%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 6.78%. MAIN pays monthly.

Duke Energy (DUK), 4.07%.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), 7.35%.

05/20/2016

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 0.32%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 2.80%.

ENI S p A (E), 4.96%. (E pays semi-annually. Note that the yield is before 26% foreign tax withholding. But don’t complain, Italy really needs the money.)

Earnings season ended with a bang, or should I say a bust, as Linn Energy LLC (LINE) surprised no one by declaring bankruptcy on 5/11/2016. Limited partner equity holdings are almost certain to be wiped out. Other stocks on my lists reporting last week were HCP Inc (HCP) on 5/9/2016, Prospect Capital (PSEC) and Fifth Street Financial (FSC) on 5/10/2016, and Pan American Silver (PAAS) on 5/12/2016. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. Transcripts of earnings conference calls are available on Seeking Alpha for most firms. Kayne Energy Development Company (KED), a closed-end fund, last reported on 2/29/2016. The report can be viewed at the website KayneFunds.com. E*Trade continues to report earnings dates for KED that are incorrect, such as last week, when KED was indicated as reporting on 5/9/2016.

As for the upcoming week, reports are expected from Gladstone Investment (GAIN) on 5/17/2016, Cisco Systems (CSCO) on 5/18/2016, and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) and Apollo Investment (AINV), both on 5/19/2016.

Upgrades / downgrades on my stocks were not as plentiful as the prior few weeks, but there were a few:

Altria (MO) was upgraded to Buy at Argus.

HCP Inc (HCP) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Hold at Jeffries.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was upgraded to Buy at Argus.

Williams Partners (WPZ) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) were both initiated at OutPerform at Bernstein.

Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), Spectra Energy (SE), Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP), Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), and Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) were all initiated at Market Perform at Bernstein.

General Electric (GE) was initiated at UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was upgraded to OutPerform at BMO Capital.

Sanofi (SNY) was upgraded to OverWeight at Barclays.

Pfizer (PFE) was initiated at Hold at Berenburg.

Southern Company (SO) was initiated at Sector Perform at Scotia Howard Weil.

The most significant economic readings of the upcoming week will be out on Tuesday, with CPI, Housing Starts/Permits, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization being announced. Earnings reporting is still occurring, as several retail heavyweights will report, including Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Ross (ROST), Home Depot (HD), and Lowes (LOW). Barring several upside surprises, which no one expects, the market swoon that seems to have started with the onset of May appears likely to continue. Things will have to deteriorate considerably to generate much in the way of interesting buy opportunities. One that came along that I just missed was Triangle Capital (TCAP), which dropped four dollars after a dividend cut. The consensus was that TCAP needed to cut, and that the reduced dividend is sustainable. With a 9.8% yield after the cut, TCAP is on my radar. I’ll be a buyer if it goes below $18, which may happen if the market has a tough week.

JT

Stocks last week gained on Monday and Friday, and were flat or declined Tuesday through Thursday, with the end result being a modest decline overall for the week on the major stock averages. The monthly labor report released Friday reflected the economic slowdown that has been observed in numerous other economic releases in recent weeks, and the expectation is that the Fed is on hold for now, as far as interest rate increases are concerned.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are as follows, listed by date, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated:

05/10/2016

Archrock Partners LP (APLP), 8.49%.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), 2.47%.

Entergy (ETR), 4.42%.

05/11/2016

Fifth Street Finance (FSC), 13.90%. FSC pays monthly.

Pfizer (PFE), 3.57%.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), 2.98%.

Spectra Energy (SE), 5.17%.

Emerson Electric (EMR), 3.59%.

Exelon (EXC), 3.60%.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), 3.41%.

GlaxoSmithKlein (GSK), 5.55%.

Statoil (STO), 4.53%.

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL), 6.81%.

JM Smucker (SJM), 2.09%.

05/12/2016

Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP), 5.44%.

United Parcel Service (UPS), 3.05%.

Southern Co (SO), 4.43%.

05/13/2016

Transocean Partners LLC (RIGP), yield 12.06%. RIGP is still paying out for the moment, unlike Transocean LTD (RIG), the parent.

05/16/2016

Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA), 1.77%.

Of the 50 firms on my lists expected to report last week, 48 did so as scheduled. See last week’s posting for the names and dates. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. Transcripts of earnings conference calls are available on Seeking Alpha for most firms. The two stocks that did not report are the two most distressed energy production partnerships, Linn Energy LLC (LINE) and Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP). Line is currently offering to exchange units of LINE one-for-one for shares of LinnCo LLC (LNCO), reportedly to allow LINE holder’s, who are by definition limited partners in the enterprise, to avoid unpleasant tax consequences from a LINE bankruptcy filing, which appears to be imminent. E*Trade now shows LINE reporting on 5/10/2016, which is doubtful, although a bankruptcy filing on that date is certainly possible. As for BBEP, the firm is presently in a stand-off of sorts with its lenders, and anything is possible, although it had seemed for a time that BBEP’s situation, dire though it was, was less precarious than LINE’s. Who knows, BBEP now may file for bankruptcy ahead of LINE. At any rate, speculation in either of these names was almost certainly a bad bet. The low prices seen a year ago as a worthwhile speculation proceeded to go much lower, and are likely on their way to zero.

As for the upcoming week, with earnings season winding down, only five firms on my lists are scheduled to report: HCP Inc. (HCP) and Kayne Anderson Energy Development (KED) on 5/9/2016, Prospect Capital (PSEC) and Fifth Street Financial (FSC) on 5/10/2016,  and Pan American Silver (PAAS) on 5/12/2016.

Upgrades / downgrades out last week on my stocks were as follows:

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman. The sell rating must have been due to valuation, as CL is a solid performer as a company.

Legacy Reserves (LGCY) was downgraded from Market Perform to UnderPerform at FBR Capital.

ENI S p A (E) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Societe Generale.

PennantPark Investment (PNNT) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Robert W Baird.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Robert W Baird. TCAP subsequently announced a quarterly dividend cut from $.54 to $.45, a 16.7% haircut. Apparently Baird saw this coming.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was initiated at UnderPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

CenturyLink (CTL) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Sanofi (SNY) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at DA Davidson.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel.

ONEOK Partners LP (OKS) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

I made one sale last week, of my entire position in Pan American Silver (PAAS). The stock has been going up since February, from below $9 at the start of the year to above $14 since late April. With a negligible yield, and a nice gain that appeared to be topping out, it was time to cash in, which I did at $14.45. This stock was a speculation from the git-go, which worked out well. As usual, quality names are uniformly over-priced, some ridiculously so. That is why yields are mostly sub-par, with the only exceptions being high-risk BDCs, MReits, and stressed energy firms still paying out dividends they probably can’t afford. Property REITs, such as Welltower (HCN), Ventas (VTR), and Medical Property Trust (MPW), while not at the bargain levels seen a few months ago, certainly deliver more in the way of dividends than most other groups. Now is not a good time to buy, in most cases. My advice is to conserve capital and wait for better entry points.

JT

Stocks ended the week with modest losses on the major averages, while the month ended roughly where it began, slightly ahead on the Dow Industrials and the S & P 500, and slightly behind on the NASDAQ. Crude oil, gold, and silver, by contrast, all managed gains on the month, while the US Dollar Index declined slightly over the period. While we have a lot of earnings reports still to come, earnings so far have not been all that bad, considering the consensus view going into earnings season was that firms were really struggling to generate profits. The fact is, firms are always struggling to remain profitable, as that is the nature of the competitive environment known as capitalism.

Of course, profits are required to pay out dividends, at least over the long term. Firms on my lists paying soon, and hopefully profitable, are as follows, listed by ex-dividend date, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated:

05/04/2016

Memorial Production Partners LP (MEMP), 4.30%. Hard to believe a three cent quarterly dividend generates a yield greater than 4%, but that can happen when the stock price declines to $2.90.

Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP), 14.29%.

Williams Partners (WPZ), 11.56%.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), 13.02%.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), 12.35%.

Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), 9.03%.

Eaton (ETN), 3.61%.

Intel (INTC), 3.34%.

Norfolk Southern (NSC), 2.57%.

05/05/2016

NuStar Energy LP (NS), 8.93%.

HCP Inc (HCP), 6.78%.

Sanofi (SNY), 3.75%. This is an annual dividend.

Paychex (PAYX), 3.18%.

05/06/2016

American Electric Power (AEP), 3.55%.

Welltower (HCN), 4.94%.

Amerigas Partners LP (APU), 8.88%.

Of 43 stocks listed last week expected to report earnings, 41 did so as scheduled. For specifics, see the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. One of the laggards was Alliant Energy (LNT), now scheduled for this week on 5/4/2016. The other was Linn Energy LLC (LINE), which is on the verge of bankruptcy. Etrade now shows LINE reporting on 5/5/2016, but that may not be accurate. LINE announced that some debtors will not be paid on schedule, and LINE will be in default if payments are not made within a grace period. An exchange offer for units of LINE, even up, for shares of the parent LinnCo LLC (LNCO), a C-Corp, has been interpreted as a way for holders of LINE to avoid Cancellation of Debt Income in the event of default, a severely negative outcome for limited partners if LINE declares bankruptcy. The exchange offer, which expired 4/25/2016, has been extended.

As for the week ahead, 50 firms on my lists are scheduled to report, listed as follows, by date:

05/02/2016

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), Sysco (SYY), Amerigas Partners LP (APU).

05/03/2016

Archrock Partners LP (APLP), Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), Duke Energy (DUK), Emerson Electric (EMR), Frontier Communications (FTR), Molson Coors (TAP), Pfizer (PFE), TICC Capital (TICC), Welltower (HCN), ONEOK Partners LP (OKS), STAG Industrial (STAG), Westar Energy (WR), MFA Financial (MFA), Solar Capital (SLRC).

05/04/2016

Ares Capital (ARCC), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), Memorial Production Partners LP (MEMP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Spectra Energy (SE), Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP), Alliant Energy (LNT), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), CenturyLink (CTL), Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), Legacy Reserves LP (LGCY), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), PennantPark Investments (PNNT), Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), Transocean LTD (RIG), Triangle Capital (TCAP), Kraft Heinz Co (KHC).

05/05/2016

Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP), Consolidated Communications (CNSL), Kellogg (K), Linn Energy LLC (LINE), Merck (MRK), Windstream Holdings (WIN), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Main Street Capital (MAIN), Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT), Safety Insurance Group (SAFT).

05/06/2016

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL), Enerplus (ERF), Exelon (EXC), National Health Investors (NHI).  

Compared to the prior two weeks, not as many upgrades / downgrades came out last week on my stocks. One constant for all three weeks – downgrades have far outnumbered upgrades!

Kimberly Clark (KMB) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was resumed at Neutral at JP Morgan.

Waste Management (WM) was initiated at Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Medtronic (MDT) was initiated at Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Blackrock Capital Investment (BKCC) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at DA Davidson.

Total S A (TOT) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

After not doing much for a long while (other than losing my shirt on LINE, as recounted last week), I made a couple of moves on Friday. I sold some metals miners (Newmont Mining (NEM) and Freeport-McMoran (FCX)) that I had been considering unloading for some time. The positions had moved into the black, plus the once-respectable dividends were kaput, so the upsurge in both names Friday gave me the push I needed to take action. I then re-deployed some of the proceeds to add to existing positions in Spectra Energy (SE) and Welltower (HCN), both of which will be going ex-dividend soon. In both cases I dis-improved my per share cost basis, as the positions I already had were acquired at much lower prices, but sometimes you have to pay more to build a position, when you start out at a great price. When that is the case, there is no better time to bite the bullet and pay up, as when a dividend will be paid right afterwards. Anyway, I’ve been operating with excess cash for what seems like years now, waiting for “the big one”, a collapse like we had in 2008-2009, presenting spectacular buy opportunities. It occasionally seems to be on the horizon, but like all mirages, it vanishes as we get closer, the market turns back up, and the bargains disappear.

JT