The unexpected rally that started on July 15 basically continued last week. A minor pullback on Monday was followed on Tuesday with huge gains even slightly more than the major up day on the 15th. After that, small advances on Wednesday and Thursday, and a small pullback on Friday, ended the week. To get a perspective on the big picture, the S&P 500 index had declined a little more than 20% from the January highs as of July 14, with the pundits proclaiming a bear market was now reality, but action since then has put the index as of Friday’s close only about 18% below the January highs.

The short-term direction from this point is anybody’s guess, and the same can be said for the potential of a recession in the near future. But one thing I can predict with near-certainty is the dividend income coming from my stocks that have announced distributions. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 7/26/2022, 9.57%. PSEC pays monthly.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 7/28/2022. 11.78%. AGNC is another monthly payer.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), 7/28/2022, 7.39%.

Plains All-American Pipeline LP (PAA), 7/28/2022, 8.13%. PAA was moved to my Tier4 list after cutting the distribution, but for the moment the high-yield payout looks to be safe, and PAA will be moved back to Tier3 on the next rework of my Tiers.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 7/28/2022, 4.68%. STAG pays monthly.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), 7/28/2022, 5.04%.

Alliant Energy (LNT), 7/28/2022, 2.98%.

Hoegh LNG Partners LP (HMLP), 7/29/2022, 0.44%. HMLP drastically cut their payout to a penny per quarter in July 2021, blindsiding holders, as there was no warning. While a finance issue was blamed, it has been charged that there was some underhanded dealing going on. Recently, it has been announced that the MLP will be acquired by the parent, at a premium to the distressed market price, but well short of where it was prior to the drastic cut. I sold, this was the best it was going to be. The entire HMLP saga is a reminder why one must diversify. HMLP will be gone from my Tier4 (not recommended) list on my next rework.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 7/29/2022, 6.29%.

Realty Income (O), 7/29/2022, 4.21%. O pays monthly. A good rule for O is buy when the yield is above 5%, sell when it drops below 4%.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), 7/29/2022, 8.82%.

ONEOK (OKE), 7/29/2022, 6.45%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/1/2022, 6.09%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

Only one of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), ex-dividend date 8/1/2022, yield 8.45%. Like most CEFs, FPF pays monthly.

We are now getting into the thick of earnings season, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting next week are as follows, listed by date.

7/25/2022

Newmont Mining (NEM).

7/26/2022

3M Co, Ares Capital, Coca Cola (KO), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), McDonalds (MCD), United Parcel Service (UPS), Unilever (UL), Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP).

7/27/2022

Getty Realty (GTY), American Electric Power (AEP), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), STAG Industrial (STAG), VICI Properties (VICI).

7/28/2022

Shell PLC (SHEL), Ladder Capital (LADR), Altria (MO), Kimco Realty (KIM), Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Southern Co (SO), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Intel (INTC), Welltower (WELL).

7/29/2022

Chevron (CVX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Enbridge (ENB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Procter & Gamble (PG).

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was initiated at Buy at Mizuho.

Plains All-American Pipeline (PAA) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Bank of America.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Sandler.

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at HSBC Securities.

VICI Properties (VICI) was resumed at OutPerform at Evercore ISI.

Unilever (UL) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Bernstein.

AT&T (T) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Sector OutPerform to Sector Perform at Scotiabank.

While the market is always difficult to predict, the uptick since July 14 has certainly given the doomsayers a pause. My take is the decline will likely resume as the Fed continues to tighten, but assuming the Fed “stays the course” until inflation is brought down, the ensuing recession will not be like 2001-2002 or 2008-2009. Like always, one needs to be positioned for multiple scenarios, no one can predict how the future will unfold, so any “all in” bet on any given scenario is unwise.

JT

Stocks declined the prior five trading days in a row, then Friday happened. A huge rally ensued, putting the major averages nearly all the way back to where they were at end-of-day Thursday June 7. Before getting carried away with euphoria, be aware that the S&P 500 Index is still 20% down from its post-Covid high attained last January. Keep in mind that a bear market often sees occasional furious rallies, even as the overall direction remains downward.

Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 7/18/2022, 10.00%. HRZN is a monthly payer.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 7/20/2022, 11.50%. SLRC is also a monthly payer.

Colgate Palmolive (CL), 7/20/2022, 2.41%.            

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 7/21/2022, 6.25%. GAIN pays monthly.

Procter and Gamble Co (PG), 7/21/2022, 2.52%.               

Four of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week. All are monthly payers. The ex-dividend date and yield as of Friday’s close is shown.

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 7/19/2022, 9.29%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 7/20/2022, 6.73%.

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY), 7/21/2022, 9.55%.

Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 7/21/2022, 6.23%.

Don’t look now, but earnings season is here! Stocks on my lists that will be reporting next week are as follows.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on 7/19/2022.

Crown Castle International (CCI) on 7/20/2022.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) on 7/20/2022.

AT&T (T) on 7/21/2022.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) on 7/21/2022.

Phillip Morris (PM) on 7/21/2022.

Verizon (VZ) on 7/21/2022.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

SLR Investment (SLRC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Fidus Investment (FDUS) was also downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) was initiated at InLine at Evercore ISI. PK is on my Tier4 list, not recommended, compliments of a dividend cut to a penny per quarter. It had been slowly recovering from the Pandemic, but has pulled back recently, and is still far away from resuming a respectable dividend.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was downgraded from Peer Perform to UnderPerform at Wolfe Research. The delivery service giant actually prospered during the Pandemic, but has pulled back recently.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN) was initiated at Neutral at Janney Capital.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Exane BNP Paribus, but downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was initiated at Neutral at Rosenblatt, and downgraded from OverWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Intel (INTC) was reiterated at Neutral at Susquehanna.

Main Street Capital (MAIN) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse. The popular BDC may be a bit over-loved at a stock price above $40, but it’s hard to argue with the track record of the past few years.  

So what is in store for the market next week? If only one could know! But of course, no one does. My guess is that with the inflation hits that keep on coming, the market will resume the drift toward the downside. Of course, that is what I thought last Thursday evening as well, before Friday’s huge rally! The best approach is to have a plan for the market direction each way, and follow it. I have covered call sell orders that may get filled if the market goes up, and buy orders that may get filled if the market goes down. If it goes nowhere, I won’t make any trades, but I’ll be comforted as my dividends continue to roll in.

JT

Stocks rebounded last week, regaining effectively all of the decline that occurred the prior week. Even though the S&P 500 is still nearly 20% down from the highs of January, it doesn’t feel like it. After most pundits have been predicting doom, now some are saying the worst of inflation may be behind us, and the impending recession may not be inevitable. I still am of the opinion that we have further downside ahead, but not so much that I’m unshakably convinced of that expectation. Remember, any time everyone “agrees” on what the market will do, the market frequently does something else entirely.

Not much to look forward to, as far as stocks on my lists going ex-dividend next week, but here they are:

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), ex-dividend date 7/14/2022, yield 1.07%. FCX is a mining stock, and since I’m not enthusiastic on miners at this time, it is on my Tier4 list. But it is a top holding if you want to own a mining stock, and while the dividend is minimal, it is better than nothing.

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), ex-dividend date 7/15/2022, yield 9.46%. PFLT pays monthly. PFLT is considered by some to be a BDC. The description from Etrade’s company overview states that it is “a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified investment company, and at least 80% of the value of its net assets plus any borrowings for investment purposes or its Managed Assets, will be invested in floating rate loans and other investments bearing a variable rate of interest”.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), ex-dividend date 7/18/2022, yield 10.10%. HRZN is a BDC, and pays monthly.

Eight of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, and another will likely also, but the date has not been announced as yet. All are monthly payers. The ex-dividend date and yield as of Friday’s close is shown.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 7/12/2022, 6.76%.

Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty Fund (RFI), 7/12/2022, 7.01%.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 7/14/2022, 7.87%. 

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 7/14/2022, 6.92%.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 7/14/2022, 8.74%.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 7/14/2022, 8.39%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 7/14/2022, 6.30%.

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 7/14/2022, 4.65%. 

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ) will likely be going ex-dividend sometime next week also. The yield as of Friday was 6.51%.

Only one of my stocks will report next week, Pepsico (PEP), on 7/11/2022. The following week will be the start of earnings season for Q2. Probably as much attention will be focused on guidance going forward as on Q2 results, as market pundits try to get a sense of how corporate managements’ view the immediate economic outlook.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was resumed at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was downgraded from OutPerform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.

Kellogg (K) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was downgraded from Hold to Sell at Berenberg.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was resumed at Neutral at JP Morgan.

Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

With the economic outlook even more uncertain than usual, we are in the “summer doldrums”, with most firms being very cautious in their ratings. My approach is to make selective acquisitions as opportunities arise, committing capital very cautiously, and only when I can reduce my cost basis (if adding to a position) and receive a dividend soon. Now is not the time to go “all in”. Like everyone else, I’m waiting to see whether we have a recession or not. From the standpoint of wanting to buy at better prices, I sort of hope we have one, but that could definitely be a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Let me just say if we’re going to have one, let’s get on with it, and hopefully it will just be a “garden-variety” type of recession, and we will recover quickly from it.

JT

Stocks looked like the downturn was back on last week, with a major down day on Tuesday, but then Friday July 1st ended with a respectable gain on all the major averages. While the full week still was down, with Friday’s surge, it was minimal. So where do we go from here? No one knows, but nothing on the economic front has really changed for the better, so the consensus seems to be that the downturn will resume, likely sooner rather than later.

In times like these, I’m glad I’m a dividend investor. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Cisco Systems (CSCO), 7/5/2022, 3.56%.

Verizon Communications (VZ), 7/7/2022, 5.04%.

General Mills (GIS), 7/7/2022, 2.86%.

OGE Energy (OGE), 7/8/2022, 4.25%.

Universal (UVV), 7/8/2022, 5.22%.

AT&T (T), 7/8/2022, 4.02%.

Only one of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF). The ex-dividend date is 7/7/2022, yield is 8.05%. Like most CEFs, AWF is a monthly payer.

None of my stocks will be reporting next week. Since the end of the 2nd quarter was June 30, it won’t be long before most companies will be reporting results. Be prepared for more volatility than usual when we get into earnings season, as the market tries to determine the direction for the rest of the summer and beyond.  

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was initiated at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Verizon (VZ) was resumed at Sector OutPerforn at Scotiabank.

McDonalds (MCD) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Atlantic Equities.

Altria (MO) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Barclays.

Crown Castle International (CCI) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank, and upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries. Nothing sways opinions like a consensus, which is not what we have here!

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) was also upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries. No doubt the digital infrastructure REITs have had a great run in recent years. I read an article that a noted short seller believes the run is ending. Jeffries apparently does not agree. My view is any REIT yielding under 4% (as is the case with CCI and DLR currently) is not going to be an attractive proposition for my money, as it indicates the REIT has become “pricey”.

Ventas (VTR) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

Duke Energy (DUK) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

It is a good time to take a break from stocks, and reflect on strategies for whatever the next couple of months brings. Flexibility is key, because while we have effectively had a two week break from the decline, we have not regained much ground over these two weeks. Market pundits will be eagerly digesting the earnings reports as they come out, to discern the near-term direction of the market. I’m ready to buy if the decline resumes. Otherwise, I’ll just collect dividends and await better opportunities.

JT

Stocks managed a rebound last week, punctuated by an 800 plus point gain in the venerable Dow Industrials Average, with similar percentage gains in the other averages I track. While the gains last week still leaves the averages substantially down from the highs of January, it was a surprise, at least to me and other pundits. Nothing has really changed, so like most observers, I do not expect the gains to continue. But again, who knew this bullish week was coming?

I’m glad I made some buys here and there before last week, as some upcoming dividend payers were approaching bargain territory. The remainder of the month of June and the start of July will see a number of my stocks going ex-dividend, as listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 6/27/2022, 10.43%. PSEC is a monthly payer.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 6/29/2022, 12.89%. AGNC is also a monthly payer.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 6/29/2022, 4.70%. STAG is another monthly payer.

Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN), 6/29/2022, 5.35%.

Ladder Capital (LADR), 6/29/2022, 8.64%.

Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD), 6/29/2022, 10.60%.

Chimera Investment (CIM), 6/29/2022, 14.88%.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY), 6/29/2022, 14.40%.

National Health Investors (NHI), 6/29/2022, 5.91%.

B & G Foods (BGS), 6/29/2022,7.59%.

Owl Rock Capital (ORCC), 6/29/2022, 9.95%.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK), 6/29/2022, 0.30%. PK is on my Tier4 list, no longer recommended. The current yield tells you the dividend is effectively gone, now only one cent per quarter.

Ventas (VTR), 6/30/2022, 3.60%.

Realty Income (O), 6/30/2022, 4.37%. O pays monthly.

Phillip Morris International (PM), 6/30/2022, 4.92%.

New Residential (NRZ), 6/30/2022, 10.68%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 7/1/2022, 6.91%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

Cisco Systems (CSCO),7/5/2022, 3.54%.

One of my stocks, General Mills (GIS), will be reporting next week, on 6/29/2022.

Of the 17 CEFs I follow, one will be going ex-dividend next week, and another likely will soon follow, but the date has not been announced as yet. Both are monthly payers.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), 7/1/2022, 8.45%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF), ex-dividend date in the range 7/1/2022 to possibly as late as 7/5/2022, 8.15%.

Ratings changes reported by Etrade last week on my stocks were as follows:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Credit Suisse.

National Health Investors (NHI) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at BMO Capital Markets.

Welltower (WELL) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) was downgraded from OverWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was initiated at OutPerform at Daiwa Securities.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Kimco Realty (KIM), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Realty Income (O), and Ventas (VTR) were all initiated at OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Altria (MO) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Iron Mountain (IRM) was initiated at OverWeight at Barclays.

The major question for the week ahead is, “will the rally continue?” My guess is that it will try to, but fail. But we will need some additional bad economic news to resume the decline in earnest. I will mostly stay on the sidelines until we get an average 30% decline from the January highs. At that point, I expect the bargains to be irresistible.

JT

Stocks declined four of the five trading days last week. The exception was Wednesday, when a short-lived relief rally occurred, amazingly, on the day the Fed announced a .75 rate increase. Go figure! While the financial press focuses on the S&P 500 index being more than 20% down from the post-Covid high (23.4% down, as of Friday’s close), it should be noted that the NASDAQ has been down more than 20% for some time, and in fact is now 33.4% down from it’s post-Covid high. Since the technology sector has been hit harder than most, this is really no surprise. The only sector under-performing the NASDAQ is the Crypto arena, with Bitcoin down more than 70% from it’s all-time high, now trading below $20000. So much for the Cryptos being a “store of value” refuge from declining fiat currencies plagued by inflation.

The good news is that many solid companies paying dividends are now becoming available at bargain prices. Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead on the date indicated are listed below, and the current annualized yield is presented. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 6/21/2022, 6.86%. GAIN pays monthly.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 6/21/2022, 7.24%. MAIN also pays monthly.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 6/22/2022, 11.37%. SLRC switched to paying monthly in March of this year.

Getty Realty (GTY), 6/22/2022, 6.54%.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 6/27/2022, 10.62%. PSEC is another monthly payer.

Four BDCs and a specialty REIT, that’s it for next week. BDCs are considered high risk, but what isn’t these days? Tech stocks are notoriously volatile, and one-time “widow and orphan” stocks, such as GE and AT&T, have proven to be anything but. I limit my allocation to BDCs and MREITs to a maximum of 20% (in total), and I have seen dividends pile up with some of these names to double or even more than my original cost basis. The same holds true for another disrespected asset class, closed end funds (CEFs). Some I have owned for 15 years or more are trading lower, no doubt, but when you consider the cumulative dividends received, my return would still be respectable, even if I sold immediately.

Speaking of CEFs, of the 17 I track, two went ex-dividend Friday, but were not listed last week because the ex-dividend date had not yet been announced when I posted last week’s update. Two more will be going ex-dividend this week. Most CEFs pay monthly, which is a positive thing – better to be paid monthly rather than quarterly, even if the total received is the same. All of the CEFs listed below pay monthly.

First, the two that went ex-dividend Friday are:

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 6/17/2022, 9.54%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 6/17/2022, 7.45%.

Next, the two going ex-dividend this week are:

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY) 6/22/2022, 10.02%.

Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 6/22/2022, 6.32%.

None of my stocks will be reporting this week.

Ratings changes reported by Etrade last week on my stocks were as follows:

New Residential Investment (NRZ) was downgraded from Neutral to UnderWeight at Piper Sandler. Currently yielding over 12%, NRZ has been a successful “triple play”. I bought it initially via a short put option, have collected several dividends, and have sold covered calls against it three times, each time with the desired result, the options expired worthless. It looked like the 3rd call was going to be “game over” for NRZ until just last week, when the stock declined below my $11 call price, and the option expired Friday, worth zero!

B&G Foods (BGS) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at Piper Sandler. BGS is on my Tier3 list, I have owned it off and on for years, but I don’t own it at the present time. I sold it in January 2021 at $34.75 when it spiked up suddenly. BGS closed at $23.59 Friday, and with the ex-dividend date of 6/29 coming up, I may start a new position, but very cautiously.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank. Yielding 3.9%, closing Friday at $127.18, down from it’s post-Covid high of $178.22, I still can’t get excited about DLR at this time.

JM Smucker Co (SJM) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Consumer Edge Research.

While not on my lists, since it does not pay a dividend, I note that Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), spun off by AT&T (T) (finally) in April, was resumed at Neutral at JP Morgan. I sold it as soon as the shares showed up in my account, on 4/13/2022 at $25.10. WBD closed Friday at $14.28. WBD may eventually recover, but with no dividend, it didn’t interest me, so I cashed out right away.

Like everyone else, I’m wondering if the sell-off will continue, or has the bottom been reached? I’m pretty much done with selling. In fact, I haven’t sold anything since 2022 began, other than energy stocks. I had known for a long time that I was overweight in energy, so when the sector began coming back to life early this year, I embarked upon a campaign to take advantage and reduce my exposure. Starting in February, I sold OXY, VET, ENB, WMB, SHEL, EPD, MMP, MPLX, and last, also least, HMLP. With the exception of HMLP, all were sold at break-even, or in some cases, much better. I hated to part with EPD, MMP, and MPLX, but I’ve decided to exit these MLPs while I had a nice gain. Even though I am a tax guru and K-1s have been my specialty, it seems to me that the publicly-traded partnership business organization is increasingly becoming out of favor, and so I cashed these out. I have been taking advantage (cautiously) of the sell-off to start new positions in some solid dividend payers, such as UL, VZ, MPW, AQN, and MAIN, to list a few. But as I stated previously, I won’t be “buying with both hands” until the S&P declines 30%. Even then, I’ll hold some level of cash, in case the decline keeps going, maybe to 50%. I actually hope it levels off somewhere between 30% and 40%, but I plan to be ready for whatever comes. My advice is to pay attention, and have a plan for what to do at various levels of gloom. That is, avoid panic selling, and make reasonable buys, recognizing that prices can always go lower.

JT  

Last week started out with two positive days, then declined three days in a row, with the decline accelerating each day from the one before. No one thing can be blamed for the dip, it is more of a multitude of concerns – inflation, shootings, lack of confidence in leaders, interest rises on the horizon, tempering business forecasts, the political divide, and a whole lot more. It remains to be seen if this decline will continue, but there are plenty of pundits forecasting that it will.

When capital gains turn into capital losses, dividends can be the only bright spot in the sea of investing gloom. Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead on the date indicated are listed below, and the current annualized yield is presented. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Ares Capital (ARCC), 6/14/2022, 8.69%.

Monroe Capital (MRCC), 6/14/2022, 9.94%.

Coca Cola (KO), 6/14/2022, 2.85%.

Altria (MO), 6/14/2022, 7.40%.

Iron Mountain (IRM), 6/14/2022, 4.73%.

Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), 6/14/2022, 9.62%.

Apollo Investment (AINV), 6/15/2022, 8.60%.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW), 6/15/2022, 7.19%.

PennantPark Investment (PNNT), 6/16/2022, 8.37%.

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), 6/16/2022, 9.79%. PFLT pays monthly.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 6/16/2022, 10.08%. HRZN also pays monthly.

CEFs I follow that will be going ex-dividend next week are as follows. Assume dividends are paid monthly unless otherwise indicated.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 6/14/2022, 5.98%.

Dividend and Income Fund (DNIF), 6/14/2022, 10.35%. DNIF pays quarterly.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 6/14/2022, 7.59%. 

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 6/14/2022, 3.54%. 

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 6/14/2022, 6.51%.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 6/14/2022, 6.69%.

Nuveen Dow 30SM Dynamic Overwrite Fund (DIAX), 6/14/2022, 6.95%. DIAX pays quarterly.

Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX), 6/14/2022, 7.80%. QQQX pays quarterly.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 6/14/2022, 8.21%.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 6/14/2022, 8.26%.

Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty Fund (RFI), 6/14/2022, 6.84%.

None of my stocks will be reporting next week.

Ratings changes reported by Etrade last week on my stocks were as follows:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded from InLine to OutPerform at Evercore ISI.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

Altria (MO) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Morgan Stanley.

AGNC Investment (AGNC) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Keefe Bruyette.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Keefe Bruyette.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman.

Next week will be interesting. After a couple of weeks respite, the downturn resumed in earnest last week. If it continues into next week, the premature headline a couple of weeks ago, proclaiming that the S&P 500 was in “bear market” territory (which it was, but only briefly intraday), will undoubtedly be seen again. Only this time, it likely won’t be just for a brief period intraday. My personal action ‘trigger” will be when the five market averages I track (collectively) indicate a 30% decline from the post-Covid highs. Upon that signal, I will begin buying stocks that are “on sale”. Not all at once, but over a period of weeks, as exceptional bargains present themselves. I will halt when I reach the point whereby my cash position has declined to 25%. If the decline reaches 50%, I will consider further acquisitions. By way of illustration, my cash position was barely 5% in early March 2009, when the decline associated with the “Great Recession” finally turned around. Needless to say, I hope it doesn’t get to that point this time around. Those were dark days indeed.

JT

Stocks declined three out of four trading days in the holiday week just ended, but the overall weekly decline was tempered somewhat by a strong positive day last Thursday. The news cycle was dominated by yet another shooting carried out by a lone gunman, which was possibly much worse than it should have been because of errors by the authorities in charge. Even though drowned out by the headline news events, economic warnings from various authorities had a negative effect on stocks. The consensus, if there is one, of economic leaders is that a 15 year period of rock-bottom interest rates following the 2008-2009 “Great Recession” is at an end, and the period just ahead will see considerable economic turmoil.

Sounds to me like a good time to invest in solid, “blue-chip”, dividend-paying stocks. Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead, and the current annualized yield, are listed following. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Kimco Realty (KIM), ex-dividend date 6/8/2022, yield 9.17%.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), ex-dividend date 6/8/2022, yield 3.15%.

Williams Companies (WMB), ex-dividend date 6/9/2022, yield 4.50%.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB), ex-dividend date 6/9/2022, yield 3.52%.

That’s it for next week, only four stocks, with just two on my Tier1 ("blue chip") list, KMB and PEG.

Only one of my stocks will be reporting next week, JM Smucker Co (SJM), on 6/7/2022.

None of the CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend next week.

Ratings changes reported by Etrade last week on my stocks were as follows:

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) and NuStar Energy LP (NS) were both upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Wells Fargo.

Park Hotels and Resorts (PK) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Truist. PK is on my Tier4 list, no longer recommended, having cut their dividend to a penny per quarter. It has recovered somewhat from the Covid decline, and may resume a respectable dividend at some point, but no telling when. Truist definitely has a more sanguine view of PK than I do.

Crown Castle International (CCI) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Wells Fargo. CCI has been a big winner the past five years, but is fully-valued at this point.

Capital One has weighed in on the health care REITs, initiating coverage at OverWeight on Ventas (VTR), Welltower (WELL), and National Health Investors (NHI), and initiating coverage at Equal Weight on Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) and Omega Healthcare (OHI).

The predicted market decline, whereby at least some of the major averages decline by 20% or more from their post-Covid highs reached in January, has stalled, at least temporarily. The major averages have in fact gained back some ground in the past two weeks. The consensus seems to be that the decline will resume shortly, but of course no one knows what is coming. My view is that a higher than usual cash position is appropriate, and any buys should be incremental, and only when a bargain seems to be available.

JT

Stocks had the best week in quite some time last week, with all of the major averages I track posting a gain for the week. I have been patiently waiting for the S&P 500 to decline 30% from the highs of January before committing capital, but after the prior week’s intraday dip representing a 20% decline, much ballyhooed at the time, the index now is only 12.2% below the January high. Sigh! It remains to be seen whether last week was a turning point or just a temporary aberration, but certainly some of my favorites approaching buy points have moved up out of range.

Stocks on my (updated) lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead and the current annualized yield are listed following. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Ex-dividend Date 5/31/2022:

K, Kellogg, 3.32%.

O, Realty Income, 4.35%. O is a monthly payer.

SAFT, Safety Insurance Group, 3.82%.

Ex-dividend Date 6/01/2022:

MAIN, Main Street Capital, 6.71%. MAIN pays monthly.

NEM, Newmont, 3.20%. NEM is a mining stock, now on my Tier4 list, but actually pays a decent dividend. But it is currently just below a 5 year high, if I owned it, I would sell on or shortly after the ex-dividend date.

Ex-dividend Date 6/02/2022:

PEP, Pepsico, 2.68%.

GBDC, Golub Capital, 8.40%.

Ex-dividend Date 6/03/2022:

MCD, McDonalds, 2.19%.

GAIN, Gladstone Investment, 5.92%. GAIN pays monthly.

Of the 17 CEFs I currently follow, only 2 will be going ex-dividend next week. Both are monthly payers.

FPF, First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund, 7.85%.

AWF, AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, 7.68%.

None of my stocks are scheduled to report next week.

Ratings changes reported by Etrade last week on my current stocks were as follows:

Realty Income (O) was downgraded from OutPerform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.

Pfizer (PFE) was initiated at Market Perform at SVB Leerink.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was resumed at OutPerform at SVB Leerink.

Prudential Financial (PRU) was initiated at Neutral at Citigroup.

Magellan Midstream LP (MMP) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at UBS.

As noted, some stocks approaching attractive buy ranges moved up last week. One example was Main Street Capital (MAIN), sometimes referred to as a “blue chip” quality BDC, if there is such a thing. I have owned MAIN off and on through the years, and most recently purchased it at what later turned out to be the bottom of the Covid decline in March 2020. My record of investing brilliance should have ended at that point, but I fell into the trap of “wanting to ring the cash register” when I had a double in just a couple of months. I did so, then watched as MAIN continued to rise, underscoring that my sell was a mistake. It has declined a little since January, and with a nearly 7% yield, I intend to start a new position next Tuesday, the ex-dividend date. I’ll start with a small position, and add more if the stock and the market resumes the decline that seemed to be underway before last week. Such is the dilemma, when one has a respectable gain, should you stay or should you go? In the case of MAIN, I should have stayed, and ignored the siren song of a quick profit. The number one trait of a successful investor is to have patience, something I resolve to continue to work on.

JT