JT’s DAILY BLOG for Month Of August 2013

Note: All previous month's posts are available in the archives, as noted above. 

All postings for the month are available here, sorted in descending order - i.e. most recent at the top.

All times are Eastern Time - same as the NYSE

1st Posting for Wednesday 08/28/2013 08:45 AM

Stocks endured a substantial sell off on Tuesday, primarily over concerns about U.S. intervention in the civil war in Syria. The Dow Industrials index was down 170 points, and all of the other major averages declined proportionately. This was in spite of the day’s economic readings, on home prices, per the Case Shiller Index, and Consumer Confidence, meeting or beating expectations. Overnight, Asian markets mostly declined. India, which has been down huge in recent sessions, was an exception for a change, managing to post a small advance. European markets are similarly mostly down, led by Germany, over 1%. Only Italy is trading in the green, at this moment at least, with a slight gain being shown. U.S. futures are flat to slightly positive, with less than an hour to go to the open. 

The only economic data of significance scheduled for today is Pending Home Sales for July, due out at 10:00 AM. Sometimes the Oil Inventories release at 10:30 AM on Wednesdays is considered significant, I suppose, but probably not a market-mover today.

None of my stocks have received any upgrades / downgrades so far today.

I would say that now is a time to husband resources, and very selectively add to positions as bargains come available, while keeping plenty of “dry powder” handy in case even better bargains come along in the next few weeks. That is, don’t go all in just because we are seeing better prices than we have seen in a year or two, it is very likely we will see even better prices soon. I bought some shares of Realty Income (O) and American Electric Power (AEP) Tuesday, two stalwart dividend payers I owned before and sold too soon, finally getting back in as reasonable prices came available. Two other names I have standing (Good-Until-Canceled, or GTC) orders in on are Coca Cola (KO) and HCP Inc (HCP), at levels a bit under the current market. Since I watch the market all day, I use GTC orders sparingly, always for a “low-ball” bid. Sometimes I am surprised by an unexpected fill, as when AEP was filled at $42.26 in the initial early morning swoon yesterday.  

I will be traveling the rest of this week, so postings will be on a “best efforts” basis, and not on my regular schedule. It seems like every time I have a trip, the market goes to heck. Maybe I will stay home for awhile after this trip.  

JT

1st Posting for Tuesday 08/27/2013 08:45 AM

Stocks slowly advanced Monday until just before noon, then began a slow descent until late in the day, then the decline accelerated into the close. By then, all of the major averages were firmly in negative territory, thus ending the possibility of three up sessions in a row. Overnight, Asian markets mostly ended with losses, with only Shanghai managing to post a modest gain. European markets are all trading with sizeable losses at this hour, most over 1.5%. Economic data due out today consists of the Case Shiller Home Price Index for June, scheduled for 9:00 AM, and the Consumer Confidence reading for August, to be released at 10:00 AM. U.S. futures are significantly down, along with foreign markets, on concerns about U.S. intervention in Syria. Noticeably absent in the speculation of possible Obama actions regarding Syria has been any objection from Congress. I thought that unless we are attacked, Congress had to approve any deployment of military forces. I guess this is another example of Congressional abdication of responsibility.

None of my stocks have been tagged thus far today with any upgrades / downgrades.

If the market has a down day, as the futures are indicating, it might be an excellent time to pick up shares of Realty Income (O), which has recently declined into buy range, along with most REITs. The next ex-dividend date for this monthly payer is 8/29/2013, so if bought today or tomorrow, the investor will be paid right away. Others on my radar are Health Care REIT (HCN) and HCP Inc (HCP), although in these cases the next ex-dividend date is a month or two away.

JT

1st Posting for Monday 08/26/2013 08:45 AM

Stocks managed to stage a modest rally Friday, actually both Thursday and Friday, to end the week on a positive note. The Dow Industrials index once again closed above 15000, which was no doubt comforting to the casual observer of the markets. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan and Singapore up, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and India down, Shanghai nearly 2%. European markets are mostly trading with losses, led by Italy, down over 2%. Only Britain is showing a gain at this hour. The only economic release for today is Durable orders for July, due out just before the open at 8:30 AM. U.S. futures are slightly negative, just prior to the release.

Only one of my stocks has received an upgrade / downgrade so far today, as Raytheon (RTN) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel.

First, from last week, I missed noting that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) would be going ex-dividend on 8/23/2013. With the huge run-up in price, the health care behemoth now only yields 2.99%.

Then, moving to the current week, several of my stocks will be going ex-dividend, as noted by date below:

8/28/2013

NextEra Energy (NEE), yield 3.24%.

Molson Coors (TAP), yield 2.54%.

Barrick Gold (ABX), yield 1.00%. ABX recently cut the quarterly dividend from $0.20 to $0.05. So much for that enticing 4% yield.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), yield 11.62%. PSEC pays monthly.

8/29/2013

McDonalds (MCD), yield 3.24%.

Kellogg (K), yield 2.93%.

Northrop Grumman (NOC), yield 2.58%.

Realty Income (O), yield 5.36%. O pays monthly.

Safety Insurance (SAFT), yield 4.68%.

Two other stocks on my lists have not yet announced, or if they have, E*Trade has not picked it up. These are both pretty reliable, and I am pretty confident they will announce soon:

Enerplus (ERF). ERF pays $0.09 Canadian monthly, which produces a yield of about 6.50%. The prior ex-dividend date for this monthly payer was 7/31/2013.

CenturyLink (CTL), which yields 6.49% even after a much-criticized dividend cut some months ago. The last quarterly ex-dividend date was 5/30/2013. I expect CTL to announce this week, and I also expect the dividend to be at the same rate as last time, which was $0.54 per quarter.

None of the stocks I follow will be reporting this week. It should be a slow week, as we try to get through the final week of August. Durable Orders came in worse than expected, but the impact was minimal. Briefing.com shows the S&P and NASDAQ futures as positive, and only slightly diminished by the Durables report, while MarketWatch, as noted, shows them as negative on the S&P and flat on the NASDAQ. Oh, well, pretty soon it won’t matter, the market will tell us what the sentiment really is.

JT

1st Posting for Friday 08/23/2013 08:30 AM

Stocks closed higher on all major averages Thursday, breaking a string of six losing sessions in a row for the venerable Dow Industrials index, all in spite of a significant trading outage affecting the NASDAQ, which lasted more than two hours. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan and India up, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore down, although the up percentages were substantially more than the down percentages. European markets are likewise trading mixed, with Britain, Germany, and Spain positive, France and Italy negative. U.S. futures are flat. The only economic release scheduled for today is July New Home Sales, due out at 10:00 AM.

I only have a couple of upgrades / downgrades to report this morning, as far as my stocks are concerned:

Realty Income (O) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at RW Baird.

Williams Partners (WPZ) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofAMerrill.

The NASDAQ glitch yesterday has spawned several news articles – the gist being that we are too dependent on technology and things are too complex, but there is really no turning back to simpler times. Probably the most significant recent development is the recent spike in Treasury yields, and from a stock perspective, the impact on utilities and REITs, the most rate-sensitive stocks. I personally have used the recent dip in these issues to buy some quality names in these sectors, including Realty Income (O), HCP Inc (HCP), Health Care REIT (HCN), and Southern (SO).  I am currently considering American Electric Power (AEP).

JT

1st Posting for Thursday 08/22/2013 08:30 AM

Stocks started off on a down note Wednesday, and the tone only got worse as the day wore on. The release of the Fed minutes at 2:00 PM was a market-moving event, as stocks initially soared upwards, and then collapsed into a sell off that carried on into the close. The Dow Industrials ended up posting a triple-digit loss, and the other major averages logged similar declines, percentage-wise. Overnight, Asian markets posted mixed results, with Japan, Shanghai, and Singapore down, Hong Kong and India up. European markets are all trading in the green at this hour. U.S. futures are modestly positive.

Several economic releases scheduled for today could affect stocks. First, at 8:30 AM, we will receive the Weekly Claims for Unemployment numbers. Then, at 9:00, the FHFA Housing Prices Index for June will be out. At 10:00, the composite of Leading Indicators for July will be released.

An upgrade / downgrade from yesterday that I missed was on Sanofi (SNY), which was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Cowen.

This morning, I have a couple more:

MicroSoft (MSFT) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Nomura.

Kayne Anderson Enegy (KED) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel. KED is actually a fund of MLPs, and is a way to invest in the sector without having to deal with partnership taxation.

A couple of my stocks reported yesterday:

Before the open, J.M. Smucker (SJM) reported FQ1 EPS of $1.24, beating by four cents. Revenue was $1.35B, down 1% Y/Y, beating by $0.01B. 

After the close, Prospect Capital (PSEC) reported FQ4 net investment income of $92.1M, up 43% Y/Y, and at $0.38 per share, exceeded guidance of $0.31 to $0.35. June 30 net asset value per share of $10.72 was up $0.01 from March 31.

Today may start off with a rebound following the late sell off yesterday, as the market reacted to the imminent  Fed “tapering”, as revealed in the minutes of the most recent meeting..

JT

1st Posting for Wednesday 08/21/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks made an attempt at a rebound Tuesday, but only partially succeeded, as the headline Dow Industrials index slipped into the red just before the close, even while all of the other major indexes posted small gains. Overnight, Asian markets finished mixed, with India, down 1.86%, leading the laggards. European markets are all trading in the red at this hour, although the declines are modest. The main economic release of the day will be Existing Home Sales for July, due out at 10:00 AM. U.S. futures are negative.

Only one of my stocks received analyst attention this morning, as GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Cowen.

One of my stocks reported earnings yesterday morning, as Medtronic (MDT) reported FQ1 EPS of $0.88, in-line Revenue was $4.1B, missing by $0.01B.

The question on the collective minds of market watchers today is whether the downturn will resume, or yesterday was the beginning of a turnaround. At this point, I would say the downturn is going to resume, but that may change, if buyers emerge to pick up “bargains”.

JT

1st Posting for Tuesday 08/20/2013 08:30 AM

Another day, another stock sell off. Stocks on Monday tried to hold steady, and even traded in the green briefly, but by mid morning the slide was under way. All of the major averages ended the day with substantial, but not huge, declines, in the one half percent range. Overnight, Asian markets likewise ended with losses, led by Japan and Hong Kong, both down over 2%. European markets, slightly past the halfway point in the European market day, are also trading with losses, led by Spain, down over 2%. U.S. futures are slightly positive, with about an hour and a half to go to the open. There are no economic releases scheduled for today. Companies in the headlines are JC Penny (JCP), Home Depot (HD), and Best Buy (BBY), all of which report today. Those results will likely set the tone for the market this morning.

I only have two upgrades / downgrades to report this AM on my stocks:

Wal-Mart (WMT) was downgraded from Positive to Neutral at Susquehanna.

Ares Capital (ARCC) was initiated at Buy at Stern Agee.

As is always the case when stocks decline for a period of time, there have been numerous articles expressing caution, and in some cases predicting a crash. It is no secret that many long-time market watchers believe stocks are over valued, and that a substantial correction, of at least 10% to 15%, is long overdue. They may be right, but as far as the current decline is concerned, one needs to keep it in perspective. Looking at the S & P 500 Index (SPX), the most significant index, the current decline began on 8/5, when the index peaked just shy of 1710, and we have thus far experienced a little over a 60 point decline, which works out to about a 3.5% drop. Not exactly Armageddon. The prior decline, from 5/22 to 6/24, was about 100 points, and represented a drop of about 6%. Keeping in mind that a so-called “healthy” correction would be in the 10% to 15% range, you can see that the current activity is definitely not catastrophic. Of course, it could continue for some time, and may yet grow into a significant correction. We just don’t know. I have used it to pick up some REIT and utility shares that are starting to come into a reasonable range for purchase. Examples are Health Care REIT (HCN) under $60, Realty Income (O) under $40, and Southern Company (SO) under $42. If these stocks drop further, I will add more shares to my positions. That is how I choose to play the game. Buy low and sell high. Easy to say, but not to do!

JT

1st Posting for Monday 08/19/2013 10:30 AM

After the big downdrafts which occurred last week, stocks on Friday attempted to at least hold the line, but after a gallant effort, the market succumbed to further losses around midday. By the end of the day, all of the major averages posted losses once again, but the declines were modest in scope, as things generally slowed down from the pace of the previous sessions. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan and Shanghai up, Hong Kong, India, and Singapore down. European markets are universally trading in the red, led by Italy and Spain, down 2.04% and 1.62%, respectively, as the European market day nears the close of trade. U.S. futures were flat to slightly negative before the open, and the market started off accordingly, with the blue chips in the red, while the NASDAQ managed a slight gain. There are no economic releases scheduled for today.

I only have two upgrades/downgrades to report this morning, as far as my stocks are concerned:

Northrop Grumman (NOC) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at UBS.

Intel (INTC) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are:

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/19/2013, yield 8.45%. GAIN pays monthly.

Diebold (DBD), 8/21/2013, yield 3.76%.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 8/22/2013, yield 3.75%.

Three of my stocks are scheduled to report earnings this week:

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 8/20/2013, after market hours.

Medtronic (MDT), 8/20/2013, before market hours.

J M Smucker (SJM), 8/21/2013, before market hours.

That’s about it for my Monday morning review, better late than never. By the way, I posted last Friday, even though the posting said Thursday. Hey, I got the date right, at least. Traveling causes me to make more errors than usual, at least that’s my excuse.

JT

1st Posting for Friday 08/16/2013 10:00 AM

Stocks endured a broad-based decline on Thursday, with all of the major averages down over 1.5%. Overnight, Asian markets posted losses as well, although in most cases, not as much as the U.S. India was an exception, declining nearly 4%. European markets are trading mixed at this hour, with Britain and Germany down slightly, while France, Italy, and Spain are trading in positive territory. The Gold rally is continuing as well. U.S. futures were slightly positive just before the open, but after the first few minutes of trade, the market has gone negative. It is early, but a snap-back rally does not seem to be happening.

A couple of economic releases came out at 8:30 AM. First, Housing Starts and Building Permits for July came in at 896K and 943K, respectively, about as expected. Then, Q2 Productivity came in at 0.9%, better than expected, but Unit Labor Costs rose 1.4%, significantly higher than expected.

Only one upgrade / downgrade has come out this morning on my stocks, as Colgate Palmolive (CL) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Argus.

Stocks will most certainly post a significantly negative week, regardless of what happens today. Many stocks have edged closer to buy range, but the question for investors is, will the decline gather steam next week, offering even better deals? I added to my position in Unilever (UL) yesterday at $39.75, a level it only reached briefly in the early going, and thus far today, it is holding above $40. So far, so good for that move.

JT

1st Posting for Thursday 08/15/2013 10:30 AM

Stocks headed down from the start Wednesday, and continued to stair-step down all day long. By the end of the day, the Dow Industrials stock average had logged a triple-digit decline, and all of the major averages posted similar declines, percentage-wise. Before the U.S. market open, Asian and European markets led the way with declines on most bourses. Then, exacerbated by disappointing reports from bellwethers Wal-Mart and Cisco, U.S. stocks opened up significantly towards the downside, and thus far, the downward momentum has only increased as trading has proceeded. 

Three upgrades / downgrades of note have come out this morning on my stocks:

Intel (INTC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at RW Baird.

Cisco (CSCO) was upgraded from Cautious to Neutral at ISI Group.

Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

As for earnings, I only have two to report, but they are having a major impact on the market today:

As expected, Cisco (CSCO) reported after the close Wednesday, that FQ4 EPS was $0.52, beating by a penny. Revenue was $12.42B, up 6% Y/Y, beating by $0.02B. So why did the shares drop over 10% in the after-hours trade? In the earnings call, the company issued light guidance, somewhat under expectations, and announced 4000 job cuts were planned. If the stock drops more tomorrow, it might be buyable.     

This morning, Wal-Mart (WMT) reported Q2 EPS of $1.25, in-line, and Revenue of $116.2B, up 2.4% Y/Y, missing by $2.4B. A drop-off in sales indicated consumers have been pulling back, confirming what was suspected from other economic indicators.

It may be time to go bargain hunting soon. That is the big question when a drop like this occurs, is it going to go on for awhile, yielding even better bargains, or will it suddenly end, with the bargains quickly dropping from the radar? My solution is to tip-toe in, so as not to waste the opportunity if the latter scenario occurs, but hold some dry powder, in case the former scenario comes to pass.

JT

1st Posting for Wednesday 08/14/2013 09:30 AM

Stocks dropped Tuesday morning, then recovered to finish the day with modest gains. Overnight, Asian markets mostly ended with gains, with only Shanghai posting a small decline. European markets performed similarly, with only Spain posting a minor decline. U.S. futures are negative, as we are only minutes away from the open.

Catching up on upgrades / downgrades from yesterday, there were only two on my stocks:

MicroSoft (MSFT) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy at ISI Group.

Then this morning, I have two more:

Entergy (ETR) was upgraded from Trim to Hold at Tudor Pickering. Trim sounds so much less dire than Sell, although I don’t know how one would trim without selling.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Well, I suppose I am recovering from a long drive yesterday, since I am back at it. The stock averages posted minor gains yesterday, as noted, but many of my stocks, especially REITs and MLPs, were down on the day. It did not feel like a positive day for me. Still, the buy opportunity I have been longing for may be coming, so time to stop whining and focus!

JT

2nd Posting for Monday 08/12/2013 04:30 PM

Stocks started off Monday below the prior session close, rose up to briefly dwell in the green, then fell back down to spend most of the day in the red, finishing down modestly from the break even level.

Sysco (SYY) reported this morning that FQ4 EPS was $0.59, beating by four cents. Revenue of $11.60B, up 5% Y/Y, missed by $0.02B. SYY has been under pressure recently. Frankly, I was surprised to see SYY drop $2.00 today, as the report was better than I expected. Apparently the market was expecting more than I was expecting.

I will be traveling starting tomorrow, and my posting will be irregular this week, depending upon time available and Internet connectivity. I probably will not get my next  posting done until Wednesday, if then. Hopefully the world will hold together while I am offline.

JT

1st Posting for Monday 08/12/2013 08:45 AM

Stocks tumbled early and often Friday, until around 11:30 AM, at which time a partial recovery occurred. By the end of the day, the market was still down substantially on the day, and also on the week. Overnight, ahead of Monday here, Asian markets mostly finished higher, with Shanghai and Hong Kong up over 2%. Japan was the laggard, down .71%. European markets are all trading in the red at this hour, starting the week out on a down note. U.S. futures are negative, with less than an hour to go to the open.

A few of my stocks have received upgrades / downgrades this morning:

Breitburn Energy (BBEP) was initiated at Buy at Argus.

Breitburn Energy (BBEP) was also initiated at Buy at Stifel.

Health Care REIT (HCN) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at BMO  Capital.

Ventas (VTR) was also  upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at BMO Capital.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) was downgraded from OutPerform to Perform at Oppenheimer.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are, by date:

8/13/2013

MicroSoft (MSFT), yield 2.81%.

Exelon (EXC), yield 3.97%.

Fifth Street Finance (FSC), yield 10.63%. FSC pays monthly.

8/14/2013

Emerson Electric (EMR), yield 2.65%.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), yield 5.32%.

J M Smucker (SJM), yield 2.05%.

8/15/2013

Chevron (CVX), yield 3.27%.

United Parcel Service (UPS), yield 2.82%.

8/16/2013

Walgreen (WAG), yield 2.54%.

For the most part, the yields on the blue chips aren’t too exciting, reflecting the elevated stock prices of today’s market.

Earnings season is winding down, and only four of my stocks will be reporting this week:

Sysco (SYY), 8/12/2013, before market hours.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 8/13/2013, before market hours.

Cisco Systems (CSCO), 8/13/2013, after market hours.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), 8/15/2013, before market hours.

While the economic data coming out this week starts off slow, with only the Treasury Budget for July on tap for Monday, the pace picks up later on, with July Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices on Tuesday, July PPI on Wednesday, July CPI and Industrial Production on Thursday, and July Housing Starts/Building Permits, Q2 Productivity/Unit Labor Costs, and the initial August Michigan Sentiment Index reading on Friday. The major question at this point is, will the long-predicted correction begin, or will the market surge even higher. Stay tuned, no one yet knows the answer.

JT

1st Posting for Friday 08/09/2013 09:15 AM

Stocks promptly dropped at the open Thursday and continued down for about an hour, then regained most of the lost ground by early afternoon. From that point, a slow decline occurred, which did not end until the close, with the end result being modest gains on the day overall, as far as the major averages were concerned. Overnight, Asian markets ended with gains across the board. European markets are also trading in the green on most exchanges, with only Italy trading in the red, as the European market day is about 75% completed. U.S. futures are negative. The only economic release scheduled for today is WholeSale Inventories, due out at 10:00 AM.

Several upgrades / downgrades have come out this morning on my stocks:

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) was downgraded from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.  

Fifth Street Finance (FSC) was downgraded from Strong Buy to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Linn Energy LLC (LINE) was downgraded from Perform to UnderPerform at Oppenheimer.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Citigroup.

Earnings that came out Thursday morning were:

Nestle (NSRGY) reported H1 net profit was up 3.6% to 5.12B Swiss francs ($5.55B), topping the consensus estimate of 5.112B francs. Total revenue was up 5.3% to 45.17B.

Linn Energy (LINE) reported Q2 EPS of $1.47, and revenue of $839M, which beat by $254.27M.

Windstream (WIN) reported Q2 EPS of $0.06, missing by three cents. Revenue of $1.51B, down 2% Y/Y, was in-line.

Consolidated Communications (CNSL) reported FQ3 EPS of $0.27, beating by eight cents. Revenue of $151.3M missed by $2.07M.

Apollo Investment (AINV) reported FQ1 NII of $0.25, beating by five cents.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) reported Q2 FFO of $0.24, missing by a penny. Revenue of $57.47M missed by $2.84M.

NGP Capital Resources (NGPC) reported Q2 EPS of $0.26, beating by thirteen cents. This beaten-down BDC can stand some good news.

After the close, one additional earnings report on my stocks came out:

Main Street Capital (MAIN) reported Q2 EPS of $0.53, beating by three cents.

Also, I missed National Health Investors (NHI), which reported Tuesday that Q2 FFO was $0.87, beating by a penny.

Another report I missed, due to the fact that Seeking Alpha, my earnings source, skipped it, was Universal Corp (UVV), which also reported Tuesday. UVV reported that “Diluted earnings per share increased $1.24, to $2.05, and net income was up $35.2 million, to $58.3 million”.  My source was a Newswire snippet from E*Trade.

Finally, just this morning, Enerplus (ERF) reported Q2 EPS of $0.26, beating by a penny.

That’s about it for the outlook this morning. Also, all earnings reports expected this week have come out and been duly reported.

JT

1st Posting for Thursday 08/08/2013 09:15 AM

Stocks posted further declines on all the major averages Wednesday, although by the end of the day the declines were less than half of what they were around 10:00 AM, as a slow, grinding advance occurred from that point on through to the end of the day. Overnight, Asian markets finished mixed, with Japan and Shanghai down, Hong Kong, India, and Singapore up. European markets are all trading in the green at this hour. The major economic release of the day has already come out, as the weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment came in at 333K, about as expected. U.S. futures are positive, for no real reason that I can see, other than it is time for an up day.

Upgrades / downgrades out this AM on my stocks are:

QR Energy LP (QRE) was downgraded from OutPerform to Perform at Oppenheimer.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Ladenburg.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Evercore.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

Additional earnings reports on my stocks from yesterday are:

QR Energy (QRE) reported Q2 EPS of $0.91, which may not be comparable to consensus of $0.27. Revenue of $105.4M missed by $3.95M.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) reported Q2 NII of $0.59, beating by two cents.

Frontier Communications (FTR) reported Q2 EPS of $0.06,  in-line. Revenue of $1.19B, down 5% Y/Y, was also in-line. This zombie firm will survive a bit longer, it seems.

PennantPark Investment (PNNT) reported FQ3 net investment income of $0.27, beating by a penny. Net asset value per share was $10.43.

CenturyLink (CTL) reported Q2 EPS of $0.69, beating by two cents. Revenue of $4.53B, down 2% Y/Y, beat by $10M. The shares declined in after-hours trade, even after beats on both the top line and the bottom line. Oh, well, it’s a jungle out there.

Annaly Capital (NLY) reported Q2 EPS of $0.47, beating by fifteen cents. Book value per share was reported at $13.03.

Fifth Street Finance (FSC) reported Q2 EPS of $0.22, missing by six cents. June 30 net asset value per share was $9.90.

Westar Energy (WR) reported Q2 EPS of $0.53, beating by eight cents. Revenue of $569.59M missed by $1.28M.

Safety Insurance (SAFT) reported Q2 EPS of $1.17, beating by thirty-six cents. Revenue was $184M.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.53, beating by five cents. Revenue of $11.55B, up 623.7% Y/Y, was in-line.

Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) reported Q2 EPS of $0.45, missing by twelve cents. Revenue of $12.06B, up 542.7% Y/Y, beat by $43M.

There will be more earnings coming out today, I’ll get caught up with today’s reports in my next post. Time to get ready for the day.

JT

 

1st Posting for Wednesday 08/07/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks posted substantial declines on all the major averages Tuesday, with the Dow Industrials just shy of a triple digit loss. According to various headlines, it was because of concerns once again that the Fed will begin to taper off the bond buying sooner rather than later. Overnight, Asian markets mostly finished with losses. Only Singapore managed a tiny gain. European markets are trading mixed at this hour, with France, Italy, and Spain up, Britain and Germany down. U.S. futures are negative. The major economic release of the day will not be out until 3:00 PM, when Consumer Credit for June will be released.

A few upgrades / downgrades on my stocks have come out this morning:

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) was initiated at OutPerform at Oppenheimer.

Ares Capital (ARCC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Keefe-Bruyette.

Vodafone (VOD) was initiated at OutPerform at Raymond James.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) was also upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform by Credit Suisse.

A few additional earnings on my stocks have come out since yesterday morning’s posting, all from later in the day yesterday:

Ares Capital (ARCC) reported FQ3 EPS of $0.38, missing by a penny. Net assets per share of $16.21were up 4.5% Y/Y.

Exterran Partners (EXLP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.52, beating by twnty-three cents. Revenue of $125.5M beat by $6.99M. 

Diebold (DBD) reported Q2 EPS of $0.25, missing by a penny. Revenue of $707.11M beat by $16.16M.

If we have a third down day today, which looks likely, it may mean the summer rally is ending, and the long-awaited pull-back is finally at hand.

JT

1st Posting for Tuesday 08/06/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks finished the day Monday like they began it, with modest losses on the blue chip indexes, while the NASDAQ managed a small gain. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan and Shanghai up, Hong Kong, India, and Singapore down. European markets are trading similarly, with France and Spain up modestly, Britain flat, and Germany and Italy slightly in the red. Oops, Italy just crossed over into the green, ever so slightly. U.S. futures are negative. The only economic release of the day is the Trade Balance for July, which has already come out at a negative $34.2B, a little better than the expected negative $43.4B.

Two downgrades have come out this AM on my stocks:

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Unilever (UL) was downgraded from OverWeight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

After the close Monday, Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.56, missing by six cents. Revenue of $10.29B, up 5.2% Y/Y, beat by $520M.

Then, this morning, additional earnings are:

Emerson Electric (EMR) reported FQ3 EPS of $0.97, missing by a penny. Revenue of $6.34B, down 2% Y/Y, missed by $0.1B.

Spectra Energy (SE) reported Q2 EPS of $0.30, missing by three cents. Revenue was $1.22B, in-line.

Spectra Energy LP (SEP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.36, missing by a penny.

Health Care REIT (HCN) reported Q2 FFO of $0.93, beating by a penny. Revenue of $682.12M beat by $16.38M.

Inergy (NRGY) reported Q2 EPS of $0.03, missing by a penny, while revenue was $118.9M.

Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) reported Q2 EPS of $1.50, beating by nine cents. Revenue of $1.18B missed by $0.05B.

TICC Capital (TICC) reported Q2 core net investment income of $0.25, missing by two cents. Net asset value per share was $9.75.

BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.75, which the firm stated may not be comparable to consensus of $0.13. Revenue of $216.98M beat by $171.75M.

Time to buckle in and get ready to ride.

JT

1st Posting for Monday 08/05/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks managed to shake off the effects of a disappointing Monthly Payrolls report Friday, and finished with modest gains on the major averages, with only the small cap Russell 2000 index failing to tag along, as it ended flat. Overnight, Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan and Singapore down, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and India up. European markets are trading mostly in the red at this hour, with France up, the rest down.  The only economic release scheduled for today is the ISM Services reading for July, due out at 10:00 AM. U.S. futures are negative, but not by a large margin. 

Only two upgrades / downgrades on my stocks have come out so far this AM:

Solar Capital (SLRC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at JMP Securities.

Kraft Foods (KRFT) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

A number of my stocks will be going ex-dividend this week, as shown following, by date:

8/5/2013  

Intel (INTC), yield 3.88%.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), yield 3.84%.

PVR Partners LP (PVR), yield 8.58%.

Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP), yield 7.17%.

Inergy LP (NRGY), yield 3.40%.

QR Energy LP (QRE), yield 11.36%.

8/6/2013

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP (BWP), yield 6.88%.

Entergy (ETR), yield 4.87%.

8/7/2013

American Electric Power (AEP), yield 4.21%.

GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK), yield 4.54%.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), yield 2.39%.

Unilever (UL), yield 3.25%.

Amerigas PartnersLP (APU), yield 7.30%.

Spectra Energy (SE), yield 3.39%.

Exterran Partners LP (EXLP), yield 6.79%.

8/8/2013

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL), yield 5.91%.

MFA Financial (MFA), yield 11.13%, based only on the regular quarterly dividend of $0.22, which is not due next until October. MFA surprised holders with a declaration of a special dividend of $0.28, with an ex-dividend as shown.

Linn Energy LLC (LINE), yield 10.79%.

Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP), yield 10.49%.

8/9/2013

Exxon Mobil (XOM), yield 2.74%.

Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC), yield 7.71%.

As for earnings, first let’s get caught up from last week:

Just before the open Friday, Chevron (CVX) reported Q2 EPS of $2.77, missing by twenty-one cents. Revenue of $57.37B, however, beat by $1.25B.

Solar Capital (SLRC) reported on Wednesday July 31st, but inexplicably was not reported in Seeking Alpha’s Market Currents, my source for the brief earnings synopses I use to track earnings on my stocks. Per an article from Business Wire, SLRC reported “net investment income for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 of $19.3 million, or $0.43 per average share”. Further, “at June 30, 2013, net asset value (NAV) per share was $22.40”.

Other earnings expected last week but not received, and latest information, are as follows:

Safety Insurance (SAFT), nothing so far. The prior quarter came out March 6, so I would expect something this week. The firm’s website does not have an earnings calendar.

ConAgra (CAG) – E*Trade now shows earnings to be delivered 9/19/2013, so this stock was apparently reported erroneously last week, as far as the next earnings reporting date. Possibly I got confused by the ex-dividend date, which was 7/29/13.

Annaly Capital (NLY) – E*Trade now shows earnings will be reported after market hours on 8/7/2013.

Exterran Partners LP (EXLP) - E*Trade now shows earnings will be reported on 8/5/2013, with no time specified.

TICC Capital (TICC) - E*Trade now shows earnings will be reported before market hours on 8/6/2013.

Based on the latest review of all of my stocks, earnings expected this week, by date, are:

8/5/2013

Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), after market hours, and Exterran Partners LP (EXLP), no time specified.

8/6/2013

Before market hours, Emerson Electric (EMR), Diebold (DBD), Health Care REIT (HCN), Spectra Energy Partners LP (SEP), Spectra Energy (SE), Molson Coors (TAP), Ares Capital (ARCC), Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP, and Inergy LP (NRGY). After market hours, Universal (UVV). No time specified, National Health (NHI).

8/7/2013

After market hours, Westar Energy (WR), Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE), Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP), Triangle Capital (TCAP), Annaly Capital (NLY), Frontier Communications (FTR), and Century Link (CTL). No time specified, Fifth Street Finance (FSC), QR Energy LP (QRE), and PennantPark Investment (PNNT).  

8/8/2013

Before market hours, Consolidated Communications (CNSL), Windstream (WIN), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), and Linn Energy LLC (LINE). No time specified, Main Street Capital (MAIN).

8/9/2013

Enerplus (ERF), no time specified.

With lots of earnings still coming out, this should be another exciting week, considering it is August and the summer doldrums are nigh.

JT

1st Posting for Friday 08/02/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks surged to new highs on the major blue chip averages Thursday, as encouraging economic data from China combined with decent U.S. economic reads to improve the mood substantially. The pre-employment data has portended a positive Monthly Payroll Report today, and one article I read noted that stocks have advanced the last several times the Monthly Payroll Release has come out. Overnight, Asian markets finished mixed, with Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore up, Shanghai flat, and India down. European markets are mostly trading down this AM, with Germany alone in hanging on to a small gain. U.S. futures are flat, as the Payroll Release is pending.

I have noticed only two upgrades / downgrades on my stocks so far this morning:

Barrick Gold (ABX) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at BMO Capital.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) was initiated at OutPerform at Oppenheimer.

Catching up with earnings on my stocks, additional reports that came out Thursday are as follows:

MFA Financial (MFA) reported Q2 EPS of $0.19, missing by two cents.

Magellan Midstream (MMP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.65, beating by eleven cents.

BlackRock Kelso (BKCC) reported Q2 NII of $0.26, in-line.

Eni (E) reported a 55% drop on Q2 adjusted net profit, to €576M from €1.29B in the year-ago period, as analysts had expected €703M.

Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) reported Q2 EPS of $0.67, beating by a penny. Revenue of $4.74B missed by $70M.

Hercules Technology Growth Capital (HTGC) reported Q2 EPS of $0.34, beating by eight cents.

Then, this morning, we have a few more:

Alliant Energy (LNT) reported Q2 EPS of $0.59, beating by four cents. Revenue of $718M beats by $34.94M.

Eaton (ETN) reported Q2 EPS of $1.09, missing by two cents. Revenue was $5.6B, up 38% Y/Y, but still missing by $0.18B.

Buckeye Partners (BPL) reported Q2 EPS of $0.72, missing by seven cents. Revenue of $1.00B missed by $0.23B.

Meanwhile, as I was trolling for earnings, the Payroll Releases has come out. Based on the headline numbers, it looks to me like an anemic reading, slightly under the modest expectations. The Unemployment Rate showed a minor decline from 7.5% to 7.4%, but it must be attributable to reduced labor market participation, based on the jobs counts. The futures have declined a bit since the release, unsurprisingly. I doubt if the market will rise further today, considering the economic data.

JT

 

1st Posting for Thursday 08/01/2013 09:00 AM

Stocks popped up at the open Wednesday, but then slowly rolled over as the day wore on, ending flat, or in the case of the Dow Industrials, with a small loss. Not helping was the fact that REITs as a sector sold off nearly across the board, including all the REITs on my lists. I never located any news to account for it, but I’m guessing it was concerns about rising interest rates impacting the sector. Overnight, Asian markets mostly ended with gains, with India being the exception, posting a small loss. European markets are all trading in the green at this hour. Economic releases scheduled for today are the Weekly Claims for Unemployment, the latest ISM Index reading, and Construction Spending for June. Auto & Truck Sales for July will also be released throughout the day by the various manufacturers. U.S. futures are positive.

None of my stocks have received any upgrades / downgrades so far this morning.

Earnings on my stocks reported after the close yesterday (Wednesday) were as follows:

Martin Midstream (MMLP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.33, missing by seventeen cents. Revenue was $358.2M.

Williams Partners (WPZ) reported Q2 EPS of $0.31, missing by six cents.

One missing report has been located, as Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported before the open on Tuesday that Q2 EPS of $0.48, beating by two cents.

Annaly Capital (NLY) was supposed to report after the close Wednesday, but as of 10:00 PM New York time, no sign of it yet. The other “missing” reports are likely just misinformation from my source (E*Trade), and will be coming along in good time.

This morning, a few more reports have come out:

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) reported that Q2 adjusted net profit dropped 20% to $4.6B, below forecasts for $5.9B. Revenues were $112.67B vs $117.07B a year earlier. EPS was  0.27 cents vs $0.66 cents.

Sanofi (SNY) reported Q2 net profit was €444M ($589.38M) vs €1.15B a year earlier.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) reported Q2 EPS of $0.65, missing by three cents. Revenue of $11.15B missed by $0.18B.

Barrick Gold (ABX) reported Q2 EPS of $0.66, beating by seven cents. Revenue of $3.2B beat by $0.11B. But then, a later report (from Seeking Alpha) stated that Barrick Gold  (ABX) lost $8.56B, or $8.55/share, in its Q2 vs. a year-earlier profit of $787M, or $0.79/share, before booking $8.7B of impairment charges related to slumping metal prices, including $5.1B related to Pascua-Lama. The second report seems more in-line with expectations. I will investigate this further and report what I can find out in my next post.

Procter & Gamble (PG) reported FQ4 EPS of $0.79, beating by two cents. Revenue of $20.65B, up 2% Y/Y, beat by $0.09B.

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported Q2 EPS of $1.41, beating by eleven cents.

SCANA Corp (SCG) reported Q2 EPS of $0.6, beating by five cents.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported Q2 EPS of $1.55, missing by thirty-five cents. Revenue of $106.47B beat by $0.93B.

Kellogg (K) reported Q2 EPS of $1.00, beating by two cents. Revenue of $3.71B missed by $0.11B.

The Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 326K, less than expected, and the futures continue to indicate  that the market will open towards the upside.

JT