Stocks lost ground overall last week, even after a modest rebound on Friday. The terrible headlines from the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan were certainly a factor, but there are also other causes for concern. The upsurge in Covid cases as the new “delta” strain spreads, disagreements over opening schools and businesses and vaccine/mask requirements, the now-evident recovery slowdown, quashing hopes of a quick return to economic “normalcy”, and the huge surge of illegals at the southern border resulting from Democrat policies all are contributing to the unease. The similarities of many current market conditions to previous market tops before major declines is also a factor.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in my “look-ahead” period are listed following. While my usual “look-ahead” period is the upcoming week plus the Monday following, for this posting it will be simply the next two weeks, August 23 through September 3rd.  The reason is this will be my last post for August, and my next posting will not be until the weekend of September 4 and 5.

The date and current yield, based on Friday’s close, are shown. Assume the dividend is paid quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/23/2021, 2.36%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/23/2021, 4.41%.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), 8/26/2021, 1.41%.

NextEra Energy (NEE), 8/26/2021, 1.78%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/26/2021, 5.86%. MAIN pays monthly.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 8/26/2021, 8.97%. PSEC also pays monthly.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN), formerly CenturyLink Communications, 8/27/2021, 8.45%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 8/30/2021, 9.06%. AGNC is a monthly payer.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 8/30/2021, 3.47%. STAG is another monthly payer.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), 8/30/2021, 1.87%.

Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP), 8/30/2021, 3.19%.

McDonalds (MCD), 8/31/2021, 2.16%.

Kellogg Co (K), 8/31/2021, 3.51%.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 8/31/2021, 4.35%.

Realty Income (O), 8/31/2021, 3.95%. O pays monthly.

Kraft Heinz (KHC), 8/31/2021, 4.37%.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 9/2/2021, 5.83%. GAIN pays monthly.

Pepsico (PEP), 9/2/2021, 2.72%.

Three of the sixteen CEFs I track will be going ex-dividend in my “look-ahead” period for this post. All are monthly payers.

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY), 8/23/2021, 7.76%.

Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 8/23/2021, 5.90%.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF) has not yet announced the ex-dividend date, but based on prior months, it will likely be 9/2/2021. FPF currently yields 5.99%.

Earnings season is mostly over, but three firms on my lists will be reporting in the “look ahead” period, as follows:

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC), on 8/23/2021.

Smucker JM Co (SJM), on 8/26/2021.

Greif (GEF), on 9/1/2021.

My closing comments basically amount to “same song, 99^th verse”, ie, no different from my recent posts. Yields for “quality” stocks are at all-time lows, reflecting extended share prices. Two precious metals speculations I track that pay a small dividend, as listed above (Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)), actually have yields comparable to major industrial stocks. In normal times, I would drop a major stock paying less than 3%, a utility paying less than 4%, a REIT paying less than 5%, and a mortgage REIT or BDC paying under 6%. But these are not normal times for income investors. Unfortunately, today one must go farther out on the risk spectrum to get a decent yield.

JT

Stocks mostly gained last week, but just barely, according to the blue chip averages and the broader New York Composite, while the NASDAQ and the small cap RUT 2000 averages posted minor declines. The news cycle was dominated by the much quicker than expected collapse in Afghanistan, as the US pullout was accelerated by the Biden administration. Considering that news, plus the southern border crisis, the virus resurgence, the re-emergence of serious inflation, and the slowdown in the economic recovery, it is amazing that stocks have held up as well as they have. It is hard to believe the markets can continue to advance considering all that is going on, but we shall soon see.

Meanwhile, stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead are listed following. The date and current yield, based on Friday’s close, are indicated. Assume the dividend is paid quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ), 8/16/2021, 8.88%. Note that OXSQ is on my Tier4 list, no longer recommended.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 8/17/2021, 6.94%. HRZN is a monthly payer.

Chevron (CVX), 8/18/2021, 5.22%.

Pitney Bowes (PBI), 8/19/2021, 2.50%. PBI is also on my Tier4 list, no longer recommended.

Hershey Co (HSY), 8/19/2021, 2.03%.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), 8/19/2021, 5.19%.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/20/2021, 5.61%. GAIN pays monthly.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 8/20/2021, 1.54%. PAAS is a precious metals speculation, not a major dividend payer.

United Parcel Service (UPS), 8/20/2021, 2.11%.

3M Co (MMM), 8/20/2021, 2.94%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/23/2021, 2.42%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/23/2021, 4.26%.

Six of the sixteen CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend in my look-ahead period, which includes August 23. All are monthly payers.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 8/16/2021, 7.29%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 8/16/2021, 4.92%.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 8/17/2021, 5.85%.

Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 8/19/2021, 6.58%.

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY), 8/23/2021, 7.71%.

Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 8/23/2021, 5.65%.

Earnings season is effectively over, with only one firm on my lists scheduled to report next week, Cisco Systems (CSCO), on 8/18/2021.

August is usually a slow month for analyst activity, and that pattern continues, as only a couple of new ratings on my stocks came out last week, as follows.

Americold Realty Trust (COLD) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup.

Exelon (EXC) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Mizuho.

I hate to sound like a broken record, like some of my aged, scratched LP’s, but unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for those not prepared for a decline, nothing has changed for many weeks now. Nearly all dividend stocks are overvalued, some ridiculously so, with once-respectable yields now under 3% or less. The only exceptions are higher risk issues, such as BDC’s, mortgage REITs, or property REITs. Closed-end funds (CEFs) are still paying out well, because of their ability to use leverage or options to increase yields, but they will reduce payouts quickly if the market moves against them. Energy stocks have some of the best yields ever seen, but as an asset class, they are heavily out of favor, with the climate change hysteria being ramped up again. I’m continuing to harvest gains on stocks or funds hitting new highs, and, with rare exceptions, holding off on deploying capital into new positions. No one knows the timing, but I believe better buys will be forthcoming, for those with the patience to wait for them.

JT

Similar to the final week of July, stocks declined two days last week and gained three days, ending the week with an overall gain. The major economic release of the week was the Friday employment report, which was positive, although not overwhelmingly so. Again, I perceive this market as bumping against a ceiling, not ready to make a major move either way.

Meanwhile, stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead are listed following. The date and current yield, based on Friday’s close, are indicated. Assume the dividend is paid quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

American Electric Power (AEP), 8/9/2021, 3.31%.

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 8/10/2021, 7.29%.

Welltower (WELL), 8/11/2021, 2.82%.

Entergy (ETR), 8/11/2021, 3.58%.

Eaton (ETN), 8/12/2021, 1.87%.

Smucker J M Co (SJM), 8/12/2021, 3.10%.

Enbridge (ENB), 8/12/2021, 6.70%.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), 8/12/2021, 6.01%.

Emerson Electric (EMR), 8/12/2021, 1.99%.

Exelon (EXC), 8/12/2021, 3.21%.

Duke Energy (DUK), 8/12/2021, 3.68%.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), 8/12/2021, 4.76%

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO), 8/12/2021, 8.08%.

Southern Co (SO), 8/13/2021, 4.08%.

Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD), 8/13/2021, 9.22%.

Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ), 8/16/2021, 8.90%.

Seven of the sixteen CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend in my look-ahead period, which includes August 16. All are monthly payers.

PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY), 8/11/2021, yield 7.35%.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 8/12/2021, 7.20%.

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 8/13/2021, 5.41%.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 8/13/2021, 6.70%.

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 8/13/2021, 5.93%.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 8/16/2021, 7.34%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 8/16/2021, 4.96%.

Earnings season is winding down, with only eight of my stocks scheduled to report in the coming week.

Reporting on 8/9/2021: Barrick Gold (GOLD), Compass Minerals International (CMP), Golub Capital BDC (GBDC), National Health Investors (NHI), NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL), Washington Prime Group (WPG). Note that NGL and WPG are both on my Tier4 list, not recommended, neither pays a dividend, and both have a sub-$2.00 stock price.

Reporting on 8/10/2021: Pan American Silver (PAAS).

Reporting on 8/11/2021: Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN).

I noticed that I failed to report upgrades/downgrades on my stocks on last week’s post. I will therefore report them this week, along with the ratings from the week just ended. Note that I report these as being of interest, not an endorsement for taking immediate action.

Ratings from the week ending 7/20/2021:

American Electric Power (AEP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank of America.

AT&T (T) was reiterated at Buy at Deutsche Bank, and downgraded from Buy to Hold at Argus.

McDonalds (MCD) was initiated at Buy at Guggenheim.

Pfizer (PFE) was resumed at Buy at Truist.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS.

Hoegh LNG Partners LP (HMLP) was downgraded from OverWeight to UnderWeight at Barclays, and from Buy to Neutral at B. Riley. See last week’s posting for details on the disastrous news regarding HMLP.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) was downgraded from UnderPerform to Sell at CLSA.

McDonalds (MCD) was reiterated by numerous firms, as follows: Buy at Deutsche Bank, MKM Partners, Jeffries, UBS, and Argus; Neutral at Piper Sandler; Hold at Stifel; OverWeight at Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo; and OutPerform at Wedbush.

Ratings from the week ending 8/6/2021:

Kimco Realty (KIM) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Capital One.

Welltower (WELL) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Berenberg.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at DZ Bank.

Chevron (CVX) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at DZ Bank.

Omega Health Investors (OHI) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Capital One.

Unilever (UL) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Americold Realty Trust (COLD) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Duke Energy (DUK) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Vertical Research.

As we enter the “dog days of summer”, the market reflects the mood, unable to advance, but also refusing to decline. Most stocks remain over-valued, as evidenced by the low yields available. At some point a catalyst will trigger a major move, but when, or in which direction, no one knows. My expectation is that whenever it comes, it will be to the downside.

JT

Stocks gained two days and declined three days the final week of July, posting a modest loss for the week, with no major moves on any one day. However, for the entire month of July, the major averages all posted gains. August is usually a quiet month for the markets, but with the Covid surging again, crime out of control in the major cities, the political in-fighting increasing in intensity, and an unsettling international situation, this August may be an exception.

Meanwhile, stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead are listed following. The date and current yield, based on Friday’s close, are indicated. Assume the dividend is paid quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

NuStar Energy LP (NS), 8/5/2021, 9.28%.

MPLX LP (MPLX), 8/5/2021, 9.56%.

Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP), 8/5/2021, 0.77%. Note that MMLP is on my Tier4 list, no longer recommended, for obvious reasons, considering the yield.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), 8/5/2021, 8.63%.

Hoegh LNG Partners LP (HMLP), 8/5/2021, 0.71%. HMLP dropped a bomb on unit holders last week, reducing the quarterly distribution to a penny per unit. The issue is a contract dispute with their most significant charterer, which could cascade into being unable to secure their debt refinancing, causing bankruptcy. Needless to say, HMLP will be moved to my Tier4 list, no longer recommended.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), 8/5/2021, 8.39%. CEQP is a rare recovery, rebounding from my Tier4 list to my Tier3 list some time ago, recommended, but higher risk.

Energy Transfer LP (ET), 8/5/2021, 6.12%. ET has been on my Tier4 list for some time, because of a halving of their distribution and legal disputes. I also own it, and I’m not selling, there is a chance the firm will survive and prosper again, and meanwhile, the distribution continues, still significant, just not as much as before.  

Intel (INTC), 8/5/2021, 2.59%.

Unilever (UL), 8/5/2021, 3.47%.

Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), 8/6/2021, 3.23%.

American Electric Power (AEP), 8/9/2021, 3.32%.

Two of the sixteen CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend in my look-ahead period, which includes August 9. Both are monthly payers.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), 8/2/2021, 5.97%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund (AWF), 8/5/2021, 6.35%.

As we reach the peak of earnings season, a number of firms I track will be reporting next week. They are listed following, by reporting date.

8/02/2021

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Realty Income (O), Williams Companies (WMB).

8/03/2021

Eaton (ETN), Pitney Bowes (PBI), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Energy Transfer LP (ET), Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), ONEOK (OKE), Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA), Prudential Financial (PRU), Spirit Realty Capital (SRC), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT).

8/04/2021

Chimera Investment (CIM), Emerson Electric (EMR), Entergy (ETR), Exelon (EXC), Kraft Heinz (KHC), MPLX LP  (MPLX), Compass Minerals International (CMP), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), Owl Rock Capital (ORCC).

8/05/2021

Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Duke Energy (DUK), Iron Mountain (IRM), Kellogg (K), NuStar Energy LP (NS), Alliant Energy (LNT), Americold Realty Trust (COLD), Apollo Investment (AINV), B&G Foods (BGS), Park Hotels (PK).

8/06/2021

Ventas (VTR).

The market continues to bump along just below the ceiling, refusing to decline for more than a day or two, and generally quickly recovering any lost ground when it occurs. But, as noted in the opening statement, there are many concerns about the economy and the anticipated “return to normalcy” that so many have been waiting for, and have expected would be returning soon. A delay in the recovery would be a major disappointment for most everyone, other than Democrats, and stocks will likely reflect that disappointment, if it occurs.

JT

Stocks fell on Monday, as the steepest drop of 2021 occurred, but then the major averages recovered it all plus a bit more over the next four days, to end the week ahead of the prior week. To emphasize the point, the headline Dow Industrial’s Index closed above 35000 for the first time ever. With the Fed stoking the economy’s boilers like never before, the current bull run continues. While fun while it lasts, economist John Mauldin’s latest “Thoughts from the Frontline” article makes for sobering reading, considering how it all may end. (Hint: not well.)

Meanwhile, stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead are listed following. The date and current yield, based on Friday’s close, are indicated. Assume the dividend is paid quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 7/27/2021, 8.74%. PSEC pays monthly.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 7/28/2021, 5.95%. MAIN also pays monthly.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 7/29/2021, 8.89%. You guessed it, AGNC is another monthly payer.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), 7/29/2021, 7.65%.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), 7/29/2021, 4.01%. SKT has restarted paying a dividend since Covid, but remains on my Tier4 list for now.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 7/29/2021, 3.66%. This monthly-paying industrial REIT is seriously over-loved, as evidenced by the sub-4% yield, with the share price, in excess of $40, reflecting all-time highs.

Pfizer (PFE), 7/29/2021, 3.76%.

Alliant Energy (LNT), 7/29/2021, 2.80%.

ONEOK (OKE), 7/30/2021, 7.06%. Note that OKE is now a C-Corp, not an MLP.

Realty Income (O), 7/30/2021, 4.04%. This monthly-paying REIT is the poster child for an over-loved dividend stock, although the stock price, barely over $70, is still less than its pre-Covid highs, in excess of $80.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 7/30/2021, 6.22%. KMI is definitely NOT over-loved by investors.

Paychex (PAYX), 7/30/2021, 2.38%.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), 7/30/2021, 7.23%.

Only one of the sixteen CEFs I follow will be going ex-dividend in my look-ahead period, which includes August 2^nd. First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF) will go ex-dividend 8/2/2021. This monthly-paying CEF currently yields 6.06%.

As we move deeper into earnings season, a number of firms I track will be reporting next week. They are listed following by reporting date.

7/26/2021

AGNC Investment (AGNC), PotlatchDeltic (PCH).

7/27/2021

3M Co (MMM), Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), General Electric (GE), Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ), Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), United Parcel Service (UPS), STAG Industrial (STAG).

7/28/2021

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Getty Realty (GTY), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Rio Tinto PLC (RIO), Vici Properties (VICI), Ares Capital (ARCC), Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Pfizer (PFE), McDonalds (MCD), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA). Altria (MO),

7/29/2021

Altria (MO), Hershey Co (HSY), Kimco Realty (KIM), Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Sanofi (SNY), Southern Co (SO), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (WRE), Welltower (WELL).

7/30/2021

Chevron (CVX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Enbridge (ENB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Procter & Gamble Co (PG), Eni S p A (E).

While nearly everyone agrees stocks are over-priced currently, the bull market keeps on going, with short-term setbacks ultimately being regained with interest. By interest, I mean the decline is regained, and more. That is about the only interest available these days. It will all end in a major decline someday, but no one knows when that day will come, least of all yours truly. Take advantage to get the best prices available in some time for your laggards, but don’t panic and sell everything, especially top dividend payers. The present situation may persist far longer than anyone thinks possible right now.

JT