The up then down then back up and so on action continued last week, with the downs ending the week slightly ahead. The major question now has become “is this a bear market rally, or are the lows seen early in the summer going to be the worst of it, with a slow but steady recovery continuing into the fall”. Most pundits are predicting the bear will return, but at least a couple are saying no, the decline is over, and we are on our way to new highs.

Like any stock junkie, I enjoy seeing “green on the screen”. However, since I’m still overweight cash, I had planned on being able to deploy it at more favorable prices than I’m seeing just now, so in a way this unexpected rally has thwarted my plans.

Oh, well, I can always take solace from the dividends from my current holdings flowing into my accounts. The stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through September 2nd are listed following. Yes, I am listing the next two weeks upcoming in this post, as I will be away next weekend. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/22/2022, 5.76%. GAIN pays monthly.

Welltower (WELL), 8/22/2022, 3.05%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/22/2022, 2.71%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/22/2022, 4.55%.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), 8/25/2022, 1.88%.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 8/26/2022, 8.91%. PSEC pays monthly.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN), 8/29/2022, 9.06%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 8/30/2022, 11.36%. AGNC is another monthly payer.

Stag Industrial (STAG), 8/30/2022, 4.28%. STAG also pays monthly. I recently started a new position on August 11, STAG is down to just under $34, from over $48 last December.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), 8/30/2022, 2.44%.

Kellogg (K), 8/31/2022, 3.11%.

Realty Income (O), 8/31/2022, 4.07%. O is well-known as a monthly payer.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 8/31/2022, 3.80%.

McDonalds (MCD), 8/31/2022, 2.07%

Pepsico (PEP), 9/1/2022, 2.55%. MCD and PEP are two “over-loved” companies likely to be dropped on my next rework of my lists, neither pays enough to be worth being considered a “dividend stock”.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 9/1/2022, 6.13%. MAIN pays monthly. I recently bought this stalwart dividend payer back last June, at an average cost around $37. It closed Friday at $42.49. This time, I won’t sell no matter how high it goes. I have suffered from “seller’s remorse” ever since selling it in December 2020, after buying at the Covid lows. Yes, I pocketed a nice gain, but quickly realized it was a mistake to sell.

Golub Capital (GBDC), 9/1/2022, 8.55%.

Two of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, and two others will likely be going ex-dividend in early September. All are monthly payers.

Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (ETY), 8/23/2022, 8.43%.

Miller/Howard High Income Equity Fund (HIE), 8/23/2022, 5.44%.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), estimated ex-dividend date 9/1/2022, yield 7.57%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF), estimated ex-dividend date 9/5/2022, yield 7.47%.

Only one of my stocks will be reporting in the next two weeks, JM Smucker Co (SJM), on 8/23/2022.

Not much in the way of ratings changes came out last week on my stocks, at least per Etrade, my source.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at BMO Capital.

JM Smucker Co (SJM) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank of America.

3M Co (MMM) was resumed at Market Perform at Bernstein.

General Electric (GE) is no longer on my Tier4 list, nor on any other list, but I follow it mentally anyway. It was resumed at OutPerform at Bernstein. GE is an example of why there is now no such thing as a “widows and orphans” stock, if there ever was such a safe stock.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Market Perform to UnderPerform at Moffett Nathanson.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was reiterated at Buy at Jeffries, at Neutral at UBS, Piper Sandler, and Goldman, at OutPerform at Credit Suisse, Raymond James, and Evercore ISI, at Sell at Citigroup, and at Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

As noted in my opening remarks, this will be my last posting until September. Since that is only two weeks away, I doubt if the market outlook will be much clearer by then. My advice is to be on the lookout for bargains, avoid over-paying, and keep your powder dry, the future will unfold at its own pace.

JT

Unlike the prior week, which saw only a minimal net change, last week saw significant advances by the major averages, and confirmed that the unexpected summer rally is for real. The latest inflation numbers showed at least a temporary respite, especially for energy costs. It remains to be seen whether this is just a temporary blip or the start of a general retreat in prices, but the “doom & gloom” crowd has definitely been handed a loss, considering their dire predictions earlier in the summer.

Meanwhile, the stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT), 8/17/2022, 9.26%. PFLT pays monthly.

SLR Investment (SLRC), 8/17/2022, 10.66%. SLRC also pays monthly.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 8/17/2022, 8.76%. HRZN is another monthly payer.

Chevron (CVX), 8/18/2022, 3.55%. The sub-4% yield reflects the current extended share price CVX shareholders are enjoying these days.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 8/19/2022, 2.47%. The almost respectable yield in this case reflects the near 50% drop in the share price endured by PAAS shareholders since mid-2020. PAAS is a speculation on precious metals coming back into vogue, not a dividend play. One famous quote regarding silver prices seems appropriate, “silver is on the edge of a major advance, and always will be”. That is why PAAS is on my Tier4 list.

3M Co (MMM), 8/19/2022, 3.98%.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 8/22/2022, 5.89%. GAIN pays monthly.

Welltower (WELL), 8/22/2022, 3.00%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 8/22/2022, 2.70%.

Prudential Financial (PRU), 8/22/2022, 4.66%.

Six of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, all are monthly payers.

Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), 8/16/2022, 6.16%.

Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty Fund (RFI), 8/16/2022, 6.17%.

Gabelli Utility Trust (GUT), 8/16/2022, 7.60%.

Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), 8/16/2022, 5.78%.

CBRE Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR), 8/18/2022, 8.15%.

Tekla Healthcare Opportunities Fund (THQ), 8/19/2022, 6.51%.

Earnings season is effectively over, only one stock I follow will be reporting next week, Cisco Systems (CSCO), on 8/17/2022.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Main Street Capital (MAIN) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at SMBC Nikko. PK is on my Tier4 list, after the dividend was reduced during the pandemic. I don’t believe PK will disappear, but it is still not likely to resume a respectable dividend anytime soon.

Welltower (WELL) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at SMBC Nikko.

Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) were both resumed at OutPerform at Credit Suisse. This illustrates my view of ratings, interesting as confirmation, but far from being timely enough to be considered actionable advice. If you waited for this rating to act, you would have missed the 50% price run-up, and likely would be buying in at the top.

Alliant Energy (LN) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank of America.

As per my view of recent weeks, I am disappointed in a way, as I had been buying selectively during the downturn, but was holding a lot of cash in reserve, expecting better prices to come. But I must remind myself not to complain because my stocks are showing gains! With the advance of recent weeks, the bargains are disappearing rapidly. Going forward, I will be buying selectively, as opportunities arise, but mostly conserving cash, awaiting better prices. Granted, we have had a “relief rally”, but it remains to be seen whether the downturn is indeed over, or rather returns with a vengeance after suckering investors in.

JT

After a week with gains and losses, most indexes ended up near where they were at the end of the prior week. While there is much gnashing of teeth over whether we are in a recession or not, the facts are confused, and the reality is “time will tell”. Certainly, the labor market doesn’t seem like we are in one. The stock market is as confused as the pundits. After rebounding from the lows of last spring, it seems stuck, with most averages still 15% to 18% below their post-Covid highs, and the NASDAQ still a bit over 20% below its post-Covid high.

Fortunately, the daily ups and downs don’t matter much to a dividend investor. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 8/8/2022, 8.74%.

American Electric Power (AEP), 8/9/2022, 3.14%.

Smucker JM Co (SJM), 8/11/2022, 3.07%.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), 8/11/2022, 3.98%.

Duke Energy (DUK), 8/11/2022, 3.68%.

Shell PLC (SHEL), 8/11/2022, 3.86%.

United Parcel Service (UPS), 8/12/2022, 3.09%.

Enbridge (ENB), 8/12/2022, 6.20%.

Southern Co (SO), 8/12/2022, 3.52%.

Four of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, all are monthly payers.

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU), 8/12/2022, 7.38%. 

BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ), 8/12/2022, 6.69%.

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), 8/12/2022, 8.33%.

BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust (BGR), 8/12/2022, 4.57%. 

Earnings season continues next week, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting are as follows, listed by date.

8/8/2022

ONEOK (OKE), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), National Health Investors (NHI).

8/9/2022

Barrick Gold (GOLD), Welltower (WELL), Golub Capital (GBDC).

8/10/2022

Pan American Silver (PAAS).

8/11/2022

Algonquin Power (AQN), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo.

Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Seaport Research Partners, and downgraded from OutPerform to Peer Perform at Wolfe Research.

Intel (INTC) was downgraded from Hold to Sell at DZ Bank.

Apollo Investment (AINV) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Wells Fargo.

Southern Co (SO) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS.

Kellogg (K) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Sandler.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Buy at Bank of America.

Duke Energy (DUK) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) was resumed at UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

There is not much one can say about the outlook, we may or may not be in a recession, and if not, we may or may not have one soon. As for stocks, we may have had a temporary pause in the bear market, which will soon resume, or it may be over, with stocks shortly resuming their uptrend. I have been cautiously buying, as long as I can add to a position and improve the cost basis, or buy back a sold position at a price well below where I sold it. But until I see more clarity, I’m moving very cautiously, and maintaining a higher than usual cash position.

JT

Stocks continued their unexpected rally last week, with most of the major averages I track progressing even further out of Bear Market territory, defined as a decline from recent highs of over 20%. The exception was the NASDAQ, which had declined the most from its post-Covid highs, over 30%, and now is only about 23% below those highs. The Fed, as expected, delivered another .75 point hike on Wednesday, and announced that from this point, their actions will depend on the data. So if you like uncertainty, you are in your element. Absolutely no one has even much of a guess as to where we go from here.

This type of environment is when an investor’s sanity can be salvaged by dividends. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/1/2022, 5.73%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

MPLX LP (MPLX), 8/4/2022, 8.67%.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), 8/4/2022, 8.10%.

Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP), 8/4/2022, 9.53%.

Unilever PLC (UL), 8/4/2022, 3.84%.

Intel (INTC), 8/4/2022, 4.02%. INTC just reported last week, with pundits’ comments describing the quarter just ended as a nightmare, a disaster, a horror show, and at least one stated that the dividend will have to go. If INTC cuts or eliminates the dividend, it will go to my Tier4 list, not recommended.

Energy Transfer LP (ET), 8/5/2022, 8.23%.

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 8/8/2022, 8.80%.

Only two of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, both are monthly payers.

First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), ex-dividend date 8/1/2022, yield 7.77%.

AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund, Inc. (AWF), ex-dividend date is 8/4/2022, yield is 7.65%.

Earnings season continues next week, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting are as follows, listed by date.

8/1/2022

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Williams Companies (WMB).

8/2/2022

Apollo Investment (AINV), MPLX LP (MPLX), New Residential Investment (NRZ), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), Prudential Financial (PRU), Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), Monroe Capital (MRCC), SLR Investment (SLRC).

8/3/2022

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Energy Transfer LP (ET), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Park Hotels & Resorts (PK), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Realty Income (O), Spirit Realty Capital (SRC), Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), Gladstone Investment (GAIN), Owl Rock Capital (ORCC), PennantPark Investment (PK), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (PFLT).

8/4/2022

Chimera Investment (CIM), Duke Energy  (DUK), Iron Mountain (IRM), Kellogg (K), OGE Energy (OGE), Alliant Energy (LNT), B&G Foods (BGS), Ventas (VTR), Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD), Main Street Capital (MAIN), NuStar Energy LP (NS), Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), MFA Financial (MFA).

8/05/2022

None of my stocks report on Friday.

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Wells Fargo.

SLR Investment (SLRC) was also downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Wells Fargo.

Unilever PLC (UL) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Newmont (NEM) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at National Bank Finance. With a yield approaching 5%, exceptional for a mining firm, NEM will be promoted to my Tier3 list on my next rework.

Newmont was also upgraded from Hold to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

McDonalds (MCD) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Deutsche Bank. MCD was reiterated at Buy at Jeffries & Truist, at OutPerform at RBC Capital, Credit Suisse, & BMO Capital, at OverWeight at Barclays, and at Neutral at Citigroup.

3M Co (MMM) was reiterated at Hold at Deutsche Bank, at Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, at Neutral at Mizuho, Credit Suisse, & Citigroup, and at UnderWeight at Barclays & Morgan Stanley.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Goldman, and from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank of America.

Hercules Capital (HTGC) was downgraded from OutPerform to Perform at Oppenheimer.

Intel (INTC) was downgraded from Neutral to Negative at Susquehanna, and from OutPerform to Neutral at Baird.

I am still in an acquisition mode, even though having to increase my buy prices in most cases. It won’t take much more of a rally from here to put me into neutral, neither looking to buy nor sell. But for now, some attractive prices are still available, just not as attractive as I had thought a few weeks ago would be available at this point.

JT

The unexpected rally that started on July 15 basically continued last week. A minor pullback on Monday was followed on Tuesday with huge gains even slightly more than the major up day on the 15th. After that, small advances on Wednesday and Thursday, and a small pullback on Friday, ended the week. To get a perspective on the big picture, the S&P 500 index had declined a little more than 20% from the January highs as of July 14, with the pundits proclaiming a bear market was now reality, but action since then has put the index as of Friday’s close only about 18% below the January highs.

The short-term direction from this point is anybody’s guess, and the same can be said for the potential of a recession in the near future. But one thing I can predict with near-certainty is the dividend income coming from my stocks that have announced distributions. Stocks I follow going ex-dividend next week through the following Monday are listed following. The ex-dividend date and current annualized yield is presented for each stock. Assume frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated. 

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 7/26/2022, 9.57%. PSEC pays monthly.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 7/28/2022. 11.78%. AGNC is another monthly payer.

Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), 7/28/2022, 7.39%.

Plains All-American Pipeline LP (PAA), 7/28/2022, 8.13%. PAA was moved to my Tier4 list after cutting the distribution, but for the moment the high-yield payout looks to be safe, and PAA will be moved back to Tier3 on the next rework of my Tiers.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 7/28/2022, 4.68%. STAG pays monthly.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), 7/28/2022, 5.04%.

Alliant Energy (LNT), 7/28/2022, 2.98%.

Hoegh LNG Partners LP (HMLP), 7/29/2022, 0.44%. HMLP drastically cut their payout to a penny per quarter in July 2021, blindsiding holders, as there was no warning. While a finance issue was blamed, it has been charged that there was some underhanded dealing going on. Recently, it has been announced that the MLP will be acquired by the parent, at a premium to the distressed market price, but well short of where it was prior to the drastic cut. I sold, this was the best it was going to be. The entire HMLP saga is a reminder why one must diversify. HMLP will be gone from my Tier4 (not recommended) list on my next rework.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 7/29/2022, 6.29%.

Realty Income (O), 7/29/2022, 4.21%. O pays monthly. A good rule for O is buy when the yield is above 5%, sell when it drops below 4%.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), 7/29/2022, 8.82%.

ONEOK (OKE), 7/29/2022, 6.45%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 8/1/2022, 6.09%. MAIN is a monthly payer.

Only one of the 17 CEF’s I follow will be going ex-dividend next week, First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF), ex-dividend date 8/1/2022, yield 8.45%. Like most CEFs, FPF pays monthly.

We are now getting into the thick of earnings season, for Q2 2022. Stocks on my lists that will be reporting next week are as follows, listed by date.

7/25/2022

Newmont Mining (NEM).

7/26/2022

3M Co, Ares Capital, Coca Cola (KO), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), McDonalds (MCD), United Parcel Service (UPS), Unilever (UL), Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP).

7/27/2022

Getty Realty (GTY), American Electric Power (AEP), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), STAG Industrial (STAG), VICI Properties (VICI).

7/28/2022

Shell PLC (SHEL), Ladder Capital (LADR), Altria (MO), Kimco Realty (KIM), Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), Southern Co (SO), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Intel (INTC), Welltower (WELL).

7/29/2022

Chevron (CVX), Colgate Palmolive (CL), Enbridge (ENB), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Procter & Gamble (PG).

Ratings changes released last week on my stocks, per Etrade, were as follows:

Kraft Heinz (KHC) was initiated at Buy at Mizuho.

Plains All-American Pipeline (PAA) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Bank of America.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Sandler.

Chevron (CVX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at HSBC Securities.

VICI Properties (VICI) was resumed at OutPerform at Evercore ISI.

Unilever (UL) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Bernstein.

AT&T (T) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Verizon (VZ) was downgraded from Sector OutPerform to Sector Perform at Scotiabank.

While the market is always difficult to predict, the uptick since July 14 has certainly given the doomsayers a pause. My take is the decline will likely resume as the Fed continues to tighten, but assuming the Fed “stays the course” until inflation is brought down, the ensuing recession will not be like 2001-2002 or 2008-2009. Like always, one needs to be positioned for multiple scenarios, no one can predict how the future will unfold, so any “all in” bet on any given scenario is unwise.

JT