Stocks basically just churned in place last week, with the Dow Industrial average gaining slightly, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both lost ground slightly. Even though we are at the zenith of earnings season, politics continues to dominate the news flow, even on the financial sites.

A number of firms I track will trade ex-dividend this week. Following are the firms, the ex-dividend date, and the annualized yield:

Williams Partners (WPZ), 11/2/2016, 9.42%.

Norfolk Southern (NSC), 11/2/2016, 2.58%.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), 11/2/2016, 5.34%.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP), 11/3/2016, 11.98%.

Crestwood Equity Partners L P (CEQP), 11/3/2016, 11.08%.

Martin Midstream Partners L P (MMLP), 11/3/2016, 10.05%.

Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE), 11/3/2016, 7.43%.

Eaton (ETN), 11/3/2016, 3.66%.

Intel (INTC), 11/3/2016, 2.99%.

NuStar Energy L P (NS), 11/4/2016, 9.26%.

Welltower (HCN), 11/4/2016, 10.05%.

Diebold (DBD) has been lagging for over a year, and announced a dividend cut from $.28 to $.10, a 65% cut. The ex-dividend date is not until 11/16/2016. With a yield under 2%, DBD goes to my Tier4 list, no longer recommended.

Sometimes earnings releases are not as easily identified for foreign stocks. Three that are on my lists that were missed recently are Unilever (UL), which reported on 10/13/2016, Total S A (TOT), on 10/28/2016, and Eni SpA (E), also on 10/28/2016. As for the thirty-eight stocks I listed last week as scheduled to report during the week just ended, all did so as scheduled. See last week’s posting for the names. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. Earnings season continues this week, with fifty-two companies I follow scheduled to report, listed as follows, by day:

10/31/2016

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L P (BWP, NextEra Energy (NEE), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Southern Co (SO), Williams Partners (WPZ).

11/1/2016

American Electric Power (AEP), Eaton (ETN), Emerson Electric (EMR), HCP Inc (HCP), Iron Mountain (IRM), Kellogg (K), Pfizer (PFE), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), Frontier Communications (FTR), Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), ONEOK Partners L P (OKS), Archrock Partners L P (APLP), Pan American Silver (PAAS).

11/2/2016

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP), Memorial Production Partners L P (MEMP), NuStar Energy L P (NS), Spectra Energy (SE), Welltower (HCN), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), CenturyLink (CTL), Legacy Reserves L P (LGCY), Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA), Transocean (RIG), Triangle Capital (TCAP), Spectra Energy Partners L P (SEP), Ares Capital (ARCC), BlackRock Capital Investment (BKCC), Gladstone Investment (GAIN), Solar Capital (SLRC.

11/3/2016

Consolidated Communications (CNSL), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), MFA Financial (MFA), Alliant Energy (LNT), Hercules Capital (HTGC), Main Street Capital (MAIN), Noble PLC (NE), STAG Industrial (STAG), Duke Energy (DUK), Crestwood Equity Partners L P (CEQP), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), TICC Capital (TICC), Calumet Specialty Products Partners L P (CLMT).

Listed following are the initiations, upgrades, and downgrades from last week on stocks I follow. The prior rating for upgrades / downgrades is also indicated, if available from my source.

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Drexel Hamilton.

Entergy (ETR) was downgraded to UnderPerform at Wolfe Research.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was upgraded to OutPerform at Wolfe Research.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) was upgraded to OutPerform at BMO Capital.

3M Co (MMM) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Barclays.

Reynolds American (RAI) was downgraded from OutPerform to UnderPerform at CLSA.

Statoil (STO) was upgraded to Buy at Atlantic Securities.

AT&T (T) was downgraded to Market Perform at Cowen & Co, and from Buy to Hold at Drexel Hamilton.

Kinder Morgan was upgraded from OutPerform to Strong Buy at Raymond James.

Ensco (ESV) was upgraded to Neutral at Clarksons Plateau.

AT&T (T) was upgraded to Hold at Independent Research.

Kimberly Clark (KMB) was downgraded from OutPerform to UnderPerform at CLSA.

Legacy Reserves L P (LGCY) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Procter & Gamble (PG) was upgraded to OutPerform at CLSA.

Transocean (RIG) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

AT&T (T) was downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Entergy (ETR) was downgraded from Equal Weight to UnderWeight at Morgan Stanley.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Jaffray.

CenturyLink (CTL) was downgraded from OutPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Right now, it seems like most investors are in a holding pattern, just waiting for the election to be over, and waiting to see if the economy improves or goes South in a big way. There certainly is no shortage of doom-sayers. My plan is to be very cautious, hold more cash than usual, and be ready to move if an opportunity presents itself.

JT

Stocks gained two days and declined three last week, with no major moves either way, ending up slightly ahead of where they began the week. The presidential debates were completed last week, bringing a feeling of relief similar to the euphoria of completing a series of visits to the dentist, involving a couple of root canals and an extraction, and having survived. Earnings season is in full swing, with many firms predictably meeting and/or beating the low expectations. 

Before I forget, I will note that I have published a new article on Seeking Alpha, entitled "ETFs and Taxes - A Primer". The article can be accessed from this website from the tab "Published Articles". The gist of the article is that if you are contemplating investing in these vehicles, it is advisable to "look before you leap".

As for companies on my lists going ex-dividend this week, it was slim pickings until the last two days of the week, when a number of firms I track will trade ex-dividend. Following are the firms, the ex-dividend date, and the annualized yield:

Unilever (UL), 10/26/2016, 3.27%.

Enterprise Products Partners L P (EPD), 10/27/2016, 5.98%.

AGNC Investment (AGNC), 10/27/2016, 11.09%. Even though AGNC changed names, it is still the same reliable monthly dividend payer.

ONEOK Partners L P (OKS), 10/27/2016, 7.54%.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA), 10/27/2016, 6.74%.

Enerplus (ERF), 10/27/2016, 1.23%. ERF still pays monthly, just not very much.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 10/27/2016, 5.90%. STAG pays monthly, also.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 10/27/2016, 12.48%. PSEC pays monthly.

ConAgra (CAG), 10/27/2016, 2.11%.

Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP), 10/27/2016, 4.72%.

Realty Income (O), 10/28/2016, 3.898%. O pays monthly.

Paychex (PAYX), 10/28/2016, 3.27%.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), 10/28/2016, 2.36%.

All twelve stocks I listed last week expected to release results in the week just ended did so as scheduled. See last week’s posting for the names. For earnings details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha.

One earnings announcement I missed was Unilever (UL), which reported 10/13/2016.

As for the upcoming week, earnings reports will be coming out at a furious pace, listed as follows by day.

10/24/2016

Kimberly Clark (KMB), AGNC Investment (AGNC).

10/25/2016

3M Co (MMM), Entergy (ETR), Freeport McMoran (FCX), Merck (MRK), Novartis (NVS), Procter & Gamble (PG), Valero (VLO), AT&T (T).

10/26/2016

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Coca Cola (KO), General Dynamics (GD), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Waste Management (WM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Ensco (ESV), Martin Midstream Partners L P (MMLP), Newmont Mining (NEM), Realty Income (O).

10/27/2016

Altria (MO), Colgate Palmolive (CL), ConocoPhillips (COP), DrPepper Snapple (DPS), Enterprise Products Partners L P (EPD), Raytheon (RTN), SCANA (SCG), United Parcel Service (UPS), Digital Realty (DLR), Kimco Realty (KIM), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Washington Real Estate (WRE), Statoil (STO), Blackstone Group L P (BX).

10/28/2016

Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Sanofi (SNY), Ventas (VTR).

Listed following are the initiations, upgrades, and downgrades from last week on stocks I follow. The prior rating for upgrades / downgrades is also indicated, if available from my source.

Freeport McMoran (FCX) was initiated at UnderPerform at BofA/Merrill.

Potlatch (PCH) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Buckingham Research.

Newmont Mining (NEM) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Barclays.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Intel (INTC) was upgraded from Market Perform to Buy at Charter Equity.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus, and from Neutral to OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries, and from Market Perform to Market OutPerform at JMP Securities.

Ventas (VTR) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jeffries.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was initiated at Buy at Investec.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Wunderlich.

Reynolds American (RAI) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Berenberg.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was initiated at Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Only about two weeks to go to Election Day. A review of several of HL Mencken’s famous quotes seems in order at this point, to put it all in perspective:

“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.”

“Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods.” [two examples, ObamaCare, Earned Income Credit]

“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule, and both commonly succeed, and are right.”

“On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” [or criminal. I added that last part myself, but I believe HL would agree to the add-on, if he knew of our choices this time around.]

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

“No one in this world, so far as I know - and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me - has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.”

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

“It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office.”

My heavens, I was only going to post a couple, but they are so great, so appropriate, that I couldn’t stop myself. And there are many more. He was definitely ahead of his time, but he knew where we were going to end up.

JT

Stocks gained three days last week, and declined on two. While that sounds ok, a closer look reveals that the declining days out-weighed the advancing days, with the result being that the major averages ended up below where they began the week. The economic releases were more of the same, reflecting a mediocre economy, at best. We are about to enter earnings season proper, with the number of reports slated to increase each week for the next few weeks, reaching a crescendo before dropping off. As usual, much effort has been expended to set expectations very low, so earnings disappointments will not crash the markets. If the political news keeps going the way it has, the markets may crash anyway.

Only four of my stocks are going ex-dividend this week:

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 10/18/2016, yield 6.50%. MAIN pays monthly.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 10/19/2016, yield 8.24%. GAIN also pays monthly.   

Procter & Gamble (PG), 10/19/2016, yield 3.03%.

Colgate Palmolive (CL), 10/20/2916, yield 2.16%.

While few in numbers, the preceding says it all about dividend choices available today – settle for minimal “safe” yields from gigantic mega-cap corporations, or go for higher yields from less-solid segments, such as (in this case), BDCs.

As noted, earnings season will be starting in earnest this week. Stocks on my lists scheduled to report are as follows:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Phillip Morris (PM) and Intel (INTC), on 10/18/2016.

Reynolds American (RAI), Kinder Morgan (KMI), on 10/19/2016.

Nucor (NUE), Verizon (VZ), Crown Castle International (CCI), MicroSoft (MSFT) on 10/20/2016.

General Electric (GE), McDonalds (MCD), Potlatch (PCH) on 10/21/2016.

Listed following are the initiations, upgrades, and downgrades from last week on stocks I follow. The prior rating for upgrades / downgrades is also indicated, if available from my source.

McDonalds (MCD) was resumed at OutPerform at Telsey Advisory Group.

Kimberly Clark (KMB) was initiated at UnderWeight at Atlantic Equities.

ONEOK Partners L P (OKS) was upgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) was resumed at Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas.

Procter & Gamble (PG) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus Research.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell at UBS.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was initiated at Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Waste Management (WM) downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Wedbush.

Potlatch (PCH) was initiated at Market Perform at BMO Capital.

Pfizer (PFE) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

Windstream Holdings (WIN) was initiated at Market Perform at Cowen & Co.

Merck (MRK) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at Piper Jaffray.

ONEOK Partners L P (OKS) was downgraded from OverWeight to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

ConAgra (CAG) was upgraded from Sector Perform to OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Realty Income (O) was initiated at Neutral at Mizuho.

STAG Industrial (STAG) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Capital One.

To repeat my standard admonition on upgrades / downgrades, I only list these as entertainment, not as actionable advice. By the time downgrades occur, it is usually too late to sell, and by the time upgrades occur, it is usually too late to buy. Further, sometimes the recommendations seem to be the opposite of what one would expect. Also, note that the recommendations are almost totally based on expected near-term direction of the stock price, not on the long term value as an investment, with dividends considered. Still, it is interesting to see what an analyst has to say about a stock I follow, especially if I own some shares.

Please, please, can November 8 just get here! Of course, unlike waiting for Christmas, what we get will likely have us wondering why we were in such a hurry to get past that date. While the financial focus will be on earnings the next few weeks, the political situation provides an undercurrent of unease that seems to pervade everything, including the markets. Stocks are still mostly over-priced, and even the more reasonable sectors, primarily energy, do not present the screaming bargains that had been available in recent months. My take is not to sell out and get my gold, guns, and freeze-dried food and head for the hills (although that may end up being what I should have done), but stay with solid, mega-cap blue chips, plus some high-yield / high-risk and precious-metals stocks / funds for diversity, and maintain a higher-than-usual cash position as “dry powder”, so I can take advantage of any opportunities that might come along as the turmoil continues.

JT

Stocks mostly just churned in place last week, with the one positive day midweek offset by minor declines the other four days. The monthly Jobs report came in slightly below expectations, which apparently wasn’t much of a surprise to the market, as Friday’s trade only registered a small decline. The political news continued to dominate the news cycle. The take-away is if you ever plan to run for President, don’t use email, and conduct yourself at all times as if you are being recorded. Unfortunately, neither candidate has followed that advice.

The second week of October will be a slow week for dividends on stocks I follow, with just five to announce, as follows:

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), ex-dividend date 10/12/2016, yield 3.78%.

Fifth Street Finance (FSC), ex-dividend date 10/12/2016, yield 12.39%. FSC pays monthly.

Consolidated Communications (CNSL), ex-dividend date 10/12/2016, yield 3.78%.

RPM International (RPM), ex-dividend date 10/13/2016, yield 2.39%.

ConocoPhillips (COP), ex-dividend date 10/13/2016, yield 2.25%.

I missed that Eni S p A (E) went ex-dividend 9/16/2016, generating a yield of 4.33%. E pays twice a year, so this will be it until 2017. Note that the yield is before foreign tax withholding of 28%.

Both of the stocks (on my lists) scheduled to report last week did so as scheduled, Darden Restaurants (DRI) on 10/4/2016, and RPM International (RPM) on 10/5/2016. For details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha.

It won’t be long before earnings season is here once again, but not this week. None of my stocks are scheduled to report.

Listed following are the initiations, upgrades, and downgrades from last week on stocks I follow. The prior rating for upgrades / downgrades is also indicated, if available from my source.

Barrick Gold (ABX) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Noble Corp plc (NE) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Societe Generale.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was initiated at Sell at Berenberg.

Transocean (RIG) was upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector OutPerform at Scotia Howard Weil.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

HCP Inc (HCP) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Morgan Stanley.

Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) was downgraded to Hold at Evercore ISI Group.

Eni S p A (E) was upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Plains All American Pipeline L P (PAA) was upgraded to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

General Dynamics (GD) was initiated at OutPerform at Robert W Baird.

Raytheon (RTN) was also initiated at OutPerform at Robert W Baird.

Noble Corp plc (NE) was downgraded from Accumulate to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was initiated at Reduce at HSBC Securities.

Precious metal ETFs and related mining stocks dropped on Tuesday for no real reason that I can see. These stocks have been on a tear since the first of the year, along with the commodity prices for gold and silver, although there has been a pullback beginning in September. While I’m not a “goldbug”, I don’t see how the current economic situation can be anything but bullish for the sector for the next few years. Now might be a good time to get at least 10% invested in precious metals and related stocks, with the recent pull-back. Other than that, I don’t see anything tempting in the current market. Prices are too high to buy, and I’ve already sold everything I want to sell, and also some stocks I really didn’t want to sell, but the prices were just too ridiculous not to. Here’s hoping we can all make it to November 8^th. Of course, what comes after that may be even worse than what we have now, if that’s possible!

JT

Stocks last week continued to rise and fall with no real direction, as each day of the week just ended saw the Dow Industrials index make triple-digit moves alternately up and down, ending the week just slightly ahead of where it began. The major business news items of the week were the Wells Fargo fiasco and the Deutsche Bank stock decline. Of course, politics and the first presidential debated dominated the news cycle.

Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the next week are as follows, with ex-dividend date and annualized yield percent as of Friday’s close indicated:

Kimco Realty (KIM), 10/3/2016, 3.48%.

Cisco Systems (CSCO), 10/3/2016, 3.31%. 

Raytheon (RTN), 10/3/2016, 3.48%.

Kayne Anderson Energy Development Co (KED), 10/5/2016, 10.15%.

Sysco (SYY), 10/5/2016, 2.53%.

Darden Restaurants (DRI), 10/5/2016, 3.69%.

General Mills (GIS), 10/5/2016, 3.02%.

Verizon (VZ), 10/5/2016, 4.43%.

General Dynamics (GD), 10/5/2016, 1.95%.

AT&T (T), 10/6/2016, 4.71%.

Universal (UVV), 10/6/2016, 3.63%.

Paychex (PAYX), ConAgra Foods (CAG), and Pepsico (PEP) all reported last week as scheduled, PAYX on 9/28/2016, and the other two on 9/29/2016. For details, see the firm’s press releases, articles on the mainstream financial media, brokerage compilations, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. Transcripts of the earnings teleconference calls with analysts for each of these firms are available on Seeking Alpha.

As for the week ahead, two stocks I follow will be reporting; Darden Restaurants (DRI) on 10/4/2016, and RPM International (RPM) on 10/5/2016.

As we move past the summer doldrums on into the Fall, the analysts are getting more active, with a number of upgrades, downgrades, or new initiations of coverage occurring this past week. Listed following are the ones I have seen on stocks I follow. The prior rating for upgrades / downgrades is also indicated, if available from my source.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Robert W. Baird.

Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE) was also upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Robert W. Baird.

Spectra Energy (SE) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Argus.

AT & T (T) was upgraded from Reduce to Hold at HSBC Securities.

Diebold (DBD) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

JM Smucker (SJM) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

AT & T (T) was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was initiated at Buy at Hilliard Lyons.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL), NuStar Energy L P (NS), and Magellan Midstream Partners L P (MMP) were all initiated at Neutral at Mizuho.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP), Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE), and Enterprise Products Partners L P (EPD) were all initiated at Buy at Mizuho.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was initiated at Buy at Guggenheim, and at OverWeight at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

I sold yet another blue-chip stock Friday that I hated to part with. Proctor & Gamble (PG), already near all-time highs, jumped up nearly 2% Friday, crossing above $90. PG is a perfect example of a solid, but not all that exciting stock that has been bid up to extreme levels as desperate income investors search for yield. Certainly, blue-chip, long-time dividend payers are extremely popular, and fully valued at this time. They may get even more fully valued, but at some point, I believe you should just take the money and run. If stocks continue on up for another year or so, I’m sure I’ll be wishing I hadn’t sold. On the other hand, if a significant correction occurs, I’ll be glad I sold. I just look at it as how much the gain will be vs how long it would take to get that amount from dividends, and in this case the answer was 16 quarterly payments, or possibly a little less if dividends increase. Then, I ask myself, is this stock likely to correct in that time frame? I believe the answer is yes, so I sold. I may end up wishing I had not done so, but I can’t argue with my rationale for having sold.

JT