As expected, stocks did very little during the holiday week, but what movement occurred was to the upside, as all the major averages posted modest gains. With earnings season now in the rear-view mirror, the focus will likely shift to Washington (which it actually never shifted away from) and the prospects for tax changes.

We also have a larger-than-usual number of firms going ex-dividend this week, as many firms announce payouts when reporting earnings, or shortly thereafter. Firms I track going ex-dividend in the upcoming week are as follows:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 11/27/2017, yield 2.45%.

AGNC Investments (AGNC), 11/29/2017, yield 10.58%. AGNC pays monthly.

STAG Industrial (STAG), 11/29/2017, yield 4.98%. STAG also pays monthly.

Enerplus (ERF), 11/29/2017, yield 1.04%. ERF is another monthly payer. Of course, with this yield, who cares?

Barrick Gold (ABX), 11/29/2017, yield 0.85%. ABX’s yield isn’t much either, but ABX was recommended as a gold speculation, not an income stock.

Prospect Capital (PSEC), 11/29/2017, yield 10.51%. PSEC pays monthly. The expectation of most analysts is that a dividend cut by PSEC is imminent.

Waste Management (WM), 11/30/2017, yield 2.12%. Like many upper tier firms, WM had a decent yield at one time, but an extended valuation has resulted in a subpar yield, barely 2% in this case.

Kellogg (K), 11/30/2017, yield 3.34%.

Coca Cola (KO), 11/30/2017, yield 3.23%.

McDonalds (MCD), 11/30/2017, yield 2.39%.

Realty Income (O), 11/30/2017, yield 4.52%. O is a monthly payer.

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT), 11/30/2017, yield 3.89%.

Pepsico (PEO), 11/30/2017, yield 2.80%.

Ensco (ESV), 12/01/2017, yield 0.71%. ESV is a about the only offshore driller still paying a dividend, but it is such a paltry amount, one has to wonder, why bother? I suppose just to keep all the machinery operating in the unlikely event the sector recovers and payouts become respectable again.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 12/04/2017, yield 7.16%. GAIN pays monthly. GAIN was on my short buy list several months ago, but it never dropped down to my desired price. Unknown then, but based on where it is now, the price I disdained was actually a bargain. Such is the life of a value investor.

None of my stocks reported last week. Only one is scheduled to report this week, PennantPark Investment (PNNT), on 11/29/2017.

As you would expect for a holiday week, it was a slow week for upgrades / downgrades on stocks I track. Some that came out are listed following. As always, note that I list these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.

Gladstone Investment (GAIN) was downgraded from OutPerform to Neutral at Wedbush, probably because of valuation.

Hercules Capital (HTGC) was initiated at Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.

Verizon (VZ) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman.

Frontier Communications (FTR) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets. Since the sector (rural telecoms) is performing miserably, the rating is not much of a vote of confidence. Considering FTR holders were treated to a 15:1 reverse split not long ago, I doubt if any FTR holders retain much confidence in their investment anyway.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

General Electric (GE) was reiterated at Sell at Deutsche Bank.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was upgraded from Neutral to OutPerform at Credit Suisse.

Kellogg (K) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus.

Merck (MRK) was reiterated at Hold at Deutsche Bank.

This is a slow time for the markets. Not much is likely to happen until after year-end, barring some type of monumental geopolitical event. It is a good time to review one’s holdings and strategy, face up to mistakes made, and determine how to avoid them in the future. In my case, the number one fault I have is reluctance to fold and exit a position when the trend is obviously down. My built-in rules for position size and sector concentration have allowed me to avoid serious damage, but performance would certainly have been better if I had exited my speculations in Oil and Gas Production MLPs (LINE, BBEP, LGCY, MEMP) and OffShore Drillers (RIG, SDRL, NE, ESV) sooner. The oil price collapse went down much further and lasted much longer than I imagined, and still has only recovered marginally. It may well be that fossil fuels are in permanent decline, underscoring that “this time it WAS different”, unlike numerous oil busts of the past, which were predictably followed by oil booms.  

JT

Stocks gyrated somewhat last week, and even though the net result was only a minor decline, volatility was higher than we have seen for quite some time. The market mood has definitely turned darker in recent weeks, with the prospects for business tax reform being passed this year now seen as far from a sure thing.

Steady dividends from firms with a long history of reliable payouts are the closest thing to a sure thing as there is available in the stock market, but even then it isn’t 100% guaranteed, as evidenced by General Electric’s (GE) 50% dividend cut announced last week. Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend this week are listed as follows, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated.

Pitney Bowes (PBI), 11/20/2017, 7.52%.   

Valero VLO), 11/20/2017, 3.41%.   

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 11/20/2017, 5.62%. MAIN pays monthly.

Hershey Co (HSY), 11/21/2017, 2.39%.  

3M Co (MMM), 11/22/2017, 2.05%.  

NextEra Energy (NEE), 11/22/2017, 2.50%.  

Vodafone (VOD), 11/22/2017, 2.37%. VOD pays semi-annually.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), 11/24/2017, 1.61%.      

CenturyLink (CTL), 11/24/2017, 14.64%. The market thinks a dividend cut is imminent, and the market may be right. If not, CTL is a heck of a bargain right now.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 11/27/2017, 2.42%.  

One firm that went ex-dividend last week that I missed was United Parcel Service (UPS), which went ex-dividend on 11/10/2017, yielding 2.97%.

All three stocks listed last week as reporting earnings did so as scheduled. Cisco Systems (CSCO), JM Smucker (SJM), and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) all managed to exceed analysts’ estimates. For specifics, see the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. In many cases a transcript of the earnings teleconference with analysts is available on Seeking Alpha.

None of my stocks are scheduled to report this coming week.

New ratings on stocks I follow continue to come out, albeit at a slower pace, now that earnings season is behind us. Note that I report these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) was initiated at Neutral at Goldman.

JM Smucker (SJM) was upgraded from Neutral to Positive at Susquehanna.

United Parcel Service (UPS) was initiated at Buy at Goldman.

General Electric (GE) was downgraded from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Coca Cola (KO) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

General Electric (GE) was reiterated at Buy at BofA/Merrill.

Valero (VLO) was reiterated at OverWeight at Barclays.

Transocean (RIG) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Statoil (STO) was downgraded to Market Perform at BMO Capital.

Sanofi (SNY) was upgraded from UnderWeight to Equal Weight at Barclays.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was reiterated at OutPerform at Oppenheimer.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was resumed at OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

ExxonMobil (XOM) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was reiterated at OverWeight at KeyBanc, at Neutral at Nomura, and at Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Jeffries.

Valero (VLO) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Standpoint Research.

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) was upgraded from Neutral to OverWeight at JP Morgan.

SCANA (SCG) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Guggenheim.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was reiterated at OutPerform at Telsey Advisory Group.

Unilever (UL) was initiated at Hold at Argus.

JM Smucker (SJM) was reiterated at Hold at Stifel.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was reiterated at OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Edward Jones.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was initiated at OutPerform at BMO Capital Markets.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L P (BWP) was initiated at Sell at Goldman.

The week ahead should be a quiet week, as far as the markets are concerned, with the Thanksgiving holiday reducing trading hours, and attention spans as well. Low trading volumes can result in larger-than-normal moves on individual stocks affected by company-specific news, which in turn can result in buy or sell opportunities. Barring any opportunistic moves, I don’t expect to make any trades this week. I used the recent run-up in Exelon (EXC) to sell part of my position at the best price seen since 2011, and I used the recent run-down in General Electric (GE) to sell a put when the stock was at the week’s low. Those are two examples of the types of opportunistic trades I will make during a slow time. Other than rare opportunities that may arise, I’m standing down this holiday week. My cash allocation is at a high not seen since before the financial crisis. The reason is I am awaiting better buy prices.

JT

Stocks were flat through Wednesday last week, then declined on Thursday, a bit more on Friday, and ended the week overall with modest losses on the major averages. That had not occurred for several weeks. The reason was purported to be disappointment with the Senate version of the new tax plan that came out Thursday, according to the headlines. Also, it may be that it was just time for a breather, after a series of weekly advances and new highs.

If you have the right portfolio of stocks, dividends never take a week off. Stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the upcoming week are as follows, with the date and yield shown. Frequency is quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Exelon (EXC), 11/14/2017, yield 3.18%.  

MicroSoft (MSFT), 11/15/2017, yield 2.00%.

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD), 11/16/2017, yield 2.19%.  

Chevron (CVX), 11/16/2017, yield 3.68%.  

Emerson Electric (EMR), 11/16/2017, yield 3.16%.  

Duke Energy (DUK), 11/16/2017, yield 3.97%.  

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), 11/16/2017, yield 5.67%.  

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC), 11/16/2017, yield 3.15%.  

Gladstone Investment (GAIN), 11/17/2017, yield 7.06%. GAIN pays monthly.  

Southern Co (SO), 11/17/2017, yield 4.46%.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN), 11/17/2017, yield 10.87%. HRZN also pays monthly.

Pan American Silver (PAAS), 11/17/2017, yield 0.66%. PAAS is recommended as a silver speculation, it is obviously not a significant dividend payer.

Valero (VLO), 11/17/2017, yield 3.44%.

Main Street Capital (MAIN), 11/20/2017, yield 5.55%. MAIN pays monthly.

Two of my stocks went ex-dividend last week that were not listed in my prior posting:

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL), 11/10/2017, 10.02%.

Hercules Capital (HTGC), 11/10/2017, 9.18%.

Last week I listed 22 stocks from my lists that were scheduled to report earnings, and 21 reported as scheduled. The exception was Calumet Specialty Products Partners L P (CLMT), which announced it had filed for a delay in filing the 10K due to a new financial system implementation. The firm did present some preliminary results in a conference call on 11/10/2017.

See last week’s posting for the names and reporting dates of the 21 stocks reporting as scheduled. For all stocks reporting, I point the reader desiring specifics to the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. In many cases a transcript of the earnings teleconference with analysts is available on Seeking Alpha.

Only three stocks on my lists are scheduled to report in the upcoming week, Cisco Systems (CSCO) on 11/15/2017, and JM Smucker (SJM) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), both scheduled to report on 11/16/2017.

New ratings on stocks I follow continue to come out, as earnings are reported and prices move lower or higher. Note that I report these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.

Solar Capital LTD (SLRC) and TICC Capital (TICC) were both upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Investec.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel.

HCP Inc (HCP) was reiterated at Hold at Stifel.

Main Street Capital (MAIN) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.  

Apollo Investment (AINV) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Raymond James. 

ExxonMobil (XOM) was downgraded from Hold to Reduce at HSBC Securities.

Statoil (STO) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at HSBC Securities.

CenturyLink (CTL) was reiterated at OutPerform at Oppenheimer.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) was reiterated at Sell at Citigroup.

AT&T (T) was reiterated at Buy at Citigroup.

Frontier Communications (FTR) was downgraded to UnderPerform at BofA/Merrill.

Windstream Holdings (WIN) was reiterated at Neutral at Citigroup.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) was reiterated at Neutral at UBS.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Frontier Communications (FTR) downgraded from Buy to Hold at Gabelli & Co.

Emerson Electric (EMR) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at B. Riley FBR, Inc.

MicroSoft (MSFT) was resumed at Buy at UBS.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was reiterated at OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Buckeye Partners L P (BPL) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

AT&T (T) was initiated at Buy at Standpoint Research.

NuStar Energy L P (NS) was reiterated at Hold at Stifel, Buy at UBS, and Equal Weight at Barclays.

General Mills (GIS) was upgraded from Sell to Hold at Societe Generale.

Welltower (HCN) was reiterated at Buy at Stifel.

As we move past earnings and into the holiday time of year, the market usually holds up fairly well through the end of the year. I expect it to adhere to this pattern again this year, barring some major geopolitical schism of some type. It is 2018 and beyond that concerns me, as it is becoming increasingly clear that neither of the two dominant political parties has any interest in reining in the growth of government and the endless deficits. The end-game, whenever it comes, will be an economic earthquake beyond anything seen before, including the 1930’s.

JT  

Stock movements were muted last week, as October finished out with a small decline on Monday, and then an even smaller advance on Halloween. Then, the first three days of November saw modest gains on most of the major averages. With decent economic reports continuing to come out and some business tax reform in the works, the market continues to hold up rather well.

Most of my dividend payers are likewise holding up well. Here are the stocks on my lists going ex-dividend in the week ahead, with yield as of Friday’s close indicated:

American Midstream Partners L P (AMID), 11/06/2017, yield 14.37%.

Crestwood Equity Partners L P (CEQP), 11/06/2017, yield 9.60%.

Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP), 11/06/2017, yield 12.94%.

Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE), 11/06/2017, yield 6.74%.

Welltower (HCN), 11/06/2017, yield 5.14%.

Intel (INTC), 11/06/2017, yield 2.31%.

Martin Midstream Partners L P (MMLP), 11/06/2017, yield 12.58%.

Archrock Partners L P (APLP), 11/07/2017, yield 8.81%.

NuStar (NS), 11/08/2017, yield 13.65%.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L P (BWP), 11/08/2017, yield 2.82%.

Entergy (ETR), 11/08/2017, yield 4.11%.

Amerigas Partners L P (APU), 11/09/2017, yield 8.44%.

Pfizer (PFE), 11/09/2017, yield 3.61%.

JM Smucker (SJM). 11/09/2017, yield 3.03%.

American Electric Power (AEP), 11/09/2017, yield 3.36%.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), 11/09/2017, yield 5.58%.

Spectra Energy Partners L P (SEP), 11/10/2017, yield 6.71%.

ExxonMobil (XOM), 11/10/2017, yield 3.69%.

All dividends are quarterly unless otherwise indicated.

Last week I listed 44 stocks from my lists that were scheduled to report earnings during the upcoming week, and 43 reported as scheduled. CenturyLink (CTL) was listed to report 10/30/2017, and is now set to report 11/08/2017.

See last week’s posting for the names and dates of the stocks listed as reporting in the upcoming week. For all stocks reporting, I point the reader desiring specifics to the firms’ press releases, available on their web sites, compilations of articles on brokerage web sites, the financial press web sites, or my preferred resource, Seeking Alpha. In many cases a transcript of the earnings teleconference with analysts is available on Seeking Alpha.

Earnings season is still ongoing. For the upcoming week, another 22 firms on my lists are scheduled to report, listed following by reporting date:

11/06/2017

Sysco (SYY).

11/07/2017

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Emerson Electric (EMR), NuStar Energy L P (NS), Welltower (HCN), Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP), Energy Transfer Equity L P (ETE), Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT), Universal (UVV), Monroe Capital (MRCC).

11/08/2017

Amerigas Partners L P (APU), CenturyLink (CTL), Pan American Silver (PAAS), BlackRock Capital Investments (BKCC), National Health Investors (NHI), Prospect Capital (PSEC), American Midstream Partners L P (AMID).

11/09/2017

Enerplus (ERF), Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH), Windstream Holdings (WIN), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM).

11/10/2017

Calumet Specialty Products Partners L P (CLMT).

New ratings on stocks I follow continue to come out, as earnings are reported and prices move lower or higher. I report these as being of interest, not as actionable advice.

ConAgra Brands (CAG) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel.

Intel (INTC) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at BMO Capital.

Merck (MRK) was downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays and Morgan Stanley, and to Hold at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey.

Ventas (VTR) was upgraded from Equal Weight to OverWeight at Capital One.

Merck (MRK) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Hold at Jeffries.

MicroSoft (MFST) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Argus.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) was reiterated at OutPerform at RBC Capital Markets.

Barrick Gold (ABX) was downgraded from OutPerform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Eaton (RTN) was reiterated at Hold at Jeffries.

Frontier Communications (FTR) was reiterated at Neutral at UBS.

Kellogg (K) was reiterated at Neutral at UBS, and at Buy at Buckingham.

ONEOK (OKE) was reiterated at Buy at UBS.

Frontier Communications (FTR) was downgraded From Neutral to UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

Apollo Investment (AINV) was reiterated at Neutral at JP Morgan.

BlackRock Capital Investments (BKCC) was reiterated at Neutral at JP Morgan.

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) was reiterated at Neutral at JP Morgan.

General Electric (GE) was reiterated at UnderWeight at JP Morgan.

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) was upgraded from Market Perform to OutPerform at Wells Fargo.

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Lake Street.

Kellogg (K) was reiterated at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets.

Apollo Investment (AINV) was initiated at Neutral at Compass Point.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L P (BWP) was reiterated at Buy at Citigroup.

Colgate Palmolive (CL) was reiterated at Neutral at Citigroup.

Eaton (ETN) was reiterated at Buy at Citigroup.

Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Kimberly Clark (KMB) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Societe Generale.

Valero was upgraded from Inline to OutPerform at Evercore ISI.

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was downgraded from Buy to UnderPerform at BofA/Merrill.  

Triangle Capital (TCAP) was downgraded from OverWeight to Equal Weight at Stephens & Co.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) was upgraded from UnderPerform to Neutral at Boenning & Scattergood.

Hercules Capital was upgraded from UnderPerform to Market Perform at Raymond James.

It was a non-eventful week for yours truly, as far as trades are concerned. Enticed by the double digit yield, I put in a bid for Energy Transfer Partners L P (ETP) on Friday, the last day to buy before the ex-dividend date Monday, 11/06/2017. Trying to get in just barely above $17, the stock took off right after I entered my limit order, and advanced steadily all day, closing at $17.51. I probably should have forced the trade with a market order before the bell, but I was so disgusted that I passed. ETP definitely has some risk associated with it, but a 12% yield is worth the risk, as long as you put a size limit on the holding.

Barring unforeseen geopolitical or economic developments, the market will likely continue as it has at least until after year-end. But like many others, I foresee at least the possibility of major storms ahead next year, accompanied by a long-awaited market decline.

JT