STOCK WATCH LISTS
NOTE: An update of all Tier1, Tier2, Tier3, & Tier4 stocks was last performed on 8/9/2016. Be aware of the dated nature of the data, as far as yields, buy prices, and sell prices. As always, note that these are the dividend stocks I can recommend, with the qualification that Tier3 stocks are very risky, and should be limited to only a small percentage of a portfolio. Always consider the maximum prices when buying, and always reserve capital to add to a position if a drop to the lower price indicated occurs. Most of these stocks are discussed in my Seeking Alpha articles. Also, I want reiterate that my Tier4 category is stocks that I no longer recommend, even as a rank speculation, but still follow since they were once recommended.
These lists represent the stocks (excluding Tier4) the author either owns or would consider owning at the right price(s). The stocks are listed regardless of current valuations, except in the case of Tier3, the most-speculative stocks. Most stocks in Tier3 would only be considered at lows near or below the maximum buy prices indicated. In all cases, consider the listed buy levels as to whether acquisition of a stock is desirable. The intent is to pre-qualify a set of stocks that would be attractive at reasonable acquisition prices. The recent price and dividend data are presented to indicate where the stock was trading on the date indicated, and the yield at that price. This data is not to be considered current, it is only shown to give an insight into the yield that MAY be available if the price and/or dividend have not changed significantly. Considerable insight can be gained by reviewing the stock price highs and lows over a time period. As the 2008-2009 financial crises recedes into the mists of time, I have replaced the columns showing highs prior to the crisis and the crisis lows with a column showing only the ten year low, which for most stocks will be the financial crisis low. For a more recent view of highs and lows, I now present the five year high and low. Stock prices are ever-changing, and sometimes have little relationship to how the business represented by the stock is faring. The type column as I am defining it relates to the type of security, which can impact the stockholder as dividends are received. Types are Corp, Reit, MLP, BDC, and ADR. Corp dividends are usually qualified, while Reit and BDC dividends are usually not qualified. MLP dividends are actually distributions of partnership income, and any investor considering these entities needs to be fully informed regarding the tax consequences before proceeding. ADR securities are foreign stocks, and the dividends actually received can be substantially reduced by foreign tax withholding. Again, the investor needs to investigate and determine the impact before proceeding. The prices shown as Maximum Buy, Ideal Buy Under, and Consider Selling are relative to where the stock has been and was trading on the most recent review date and, based on the environment that existed when the numbers were developed, would seem to be reasonable. You will note these are round numbers, and are merely indicative of an area or range where action may be advantageous. I am influenced by the observed volatility of the stock, the yield, the perceived quality of the company, and many other factors in setting these prices. Further, as time moves on, these prices shown are less likely to be relevant. The take-away is that a buyer or seller of stock should have a feel for where the stock has been, and avoid over-paying, or selling too cheap, by formulating his/her own maximum buy, ideal buy, and time to sell prices. As noted, the author is not a certified financial planner or analyst, and anyone considering the purchase or sale of these stocks must perform their own due diligence as to whether transacting at the suggested prices would be advantageous.
I want to add a few additional comments regarding Tier3. These are stocks that have (in most cases) what I term "ultra-high" yields, usually in excess of 7%, and are to be considered extremely speculative. I recommend that holdings of these stocks should be limited to a small percentage of a total portfolio. I do own many of these stocks, but I limit the total holdings to 15% or less, further broken down as: 7% to BDCs, 3% to Mortgage REITs, 3% to Rural Telecoms, and 2% to other "ultra-high" yielding stocks. I also limit a single holding in this group to no more than 1% of the total portfolio. Each individual must define his/her own limits, but this gives the reader an idea of how to approach these higher-risk stocks, other than avoiding them entirely. In mid-2013, I added a few beaten-down mining stocks to Tier3, as worthy of a bottom-fishing speculation after the tremendous drop experienced by this sector over the past several months. Later I added some beaten-down energy firms, Oil and Gas Producer MLPs and Offshore Contract Drillers, that I believed had substantial upside potential if energy prices recovered in 2016. These stocks are certainly not high yield now following necessary dividend cuts, and in most cases the dividend is moot. These stocks are a speculation on the commodity recovering (precious metals, oil, etc. that caused the stock to collapse) and the firm surviving until then. While the precious metals stocks have rebounded, as of 8/2016, the energy speculations have mostly turned out badly, with two previously high yield production MLPs having gone bankrupt (Linn Energy LLC (LINE) and Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP)). The story here is that the oil price drop extended deeper and lasted longer than expected, and in fact continues today, and the hedges touted as providing a degree of safety turned out to be much less effective than advertised. Some speculations just don't work out, that is the nature of speculation.
These lists will be updated intermittingly as conditions change, with new actionable prices, dividend data, and so on. Also, occasionally new stocks will be added or existing stocks will be deleted. I will note any changes I will be making to the lists on my Daily Blog as I determine that changes are needed. Occasional updates will only be applied to the lists periodically, usually about once a month. A wholesale review will only occur about once a year.
Click on a selection in the left panel to bring up the corresponding list in the right panel.